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Title page 1

Contents 6

Foreword 4

Acknowledgements 5

Executive Summary 8

1. Introduction 10

2. Data flows and the evolving regulatory environment 12

2.1. What is different about data? 13

2.2. Why and how is data flow regulation emerging? 15

2.3. What issues does data regulation raise? 19

3. Identifying the potential economic impact of different broad approaches to data regulation 20

3.1. Insights from a business questionnaire 20

3.2. Modelling the economic implications of data regulation 24

3.3. Identifying the size of the associated costs and benefits 27

4. Outcomes of the simulations 31

4.1. Changes in data-flow regulation can have sizeable impacts 31

4.2. Impacts of data localisation tend to be smaller, but depend strongly on the measure applied 36

5. Policy implications 40

References 42

Notes 45

Annex A. Further insights from the OECD-WTO Business Questionnaire 49

Note 52

Annex B. Econometric analysis 53

Note 54

Annex C. Additional data flow regulation simulations 55

C.1. Introducing the data flow shocks one by one 55

C.2. Impact on trade patterns from changes in data flow regulation 56

Annex D. Additional data localisation regulation simulations 58

D.1. Introducing the data localisation shocks one by one 58

D.2. Impact on trade patterns from changes in data localisation policies 59

Annex E. Sector and region mapping (CGE simulations) 61

Tables 7

Table 3.1. Breakdown of CGE policy shocks related to data flow regulation (maintaining data localisation policies) 25

Table 3.2. Breakdown of CGE policy shocks related to data localisation (maintaining data flow policies) 26

Figures 7

Figure 1.1. Measures that affect the location or movement of data are on the rise 10

Figure 2.1. International Internet bandwidth is growing 12

Figure 2.2. There is no wisdom without knowledge, no knowledge without information, and no information without data 14

Figure 2.3. Broad approaches to cross-border data flow regulation 17

Figure 2.4. A typology of data localisation measures and requirements for data flow 18

Figure 3.1. How hard would it be for your business to identify/separate your data by type and geographical origin? 21

Figure 3.2. How much of the volume of data that your business sends or receives across international jurisdictions is likely to be personal data? 21

Figure 3.3. Perceived impact of conditions for cross-border data transfers 22

Figure 3.4. Perceived impact of data localisation measures: By how much do you think regulation can increase your data management costs? 23

Figure 3.5. Data localisation and public policy objective 24

Figure 3.6. Trade cost increase arising from an increase in the DSTRI 27

Figure 3.7. Cost increase arising from a change in data management costs 28

Figure 3.8. Projected changes in ad valorem trade costs, trust and data management costs under different scenarios 29

Figure 4.1. Projected change in global exports and GDP as a result of different data flow regulation scenarios 31

Figure 4.2. Projected change in real exports and real GDP by income group from changes in data flow regulation 33

Figure 4.3. Projected change in real exports and real GDP by aggregate region from changes in data flow regulation 34

Figure 4.4. Projected change in global exports and GDP as a result of data localisation measures 37

Figure 4.5. Projected change in real exports and real GDP by income group from changes in data localisation measures 38

Figure 4.6. Projected change in real exports and real GDP by aggregate region from changes in data localisation measures 39

Boxes 7

Box 2.1. How does data flow through the Internet? 14

Annex Tables 54

Table A B.1. Impact of digital connectivity and digital trade policies on trade, 2014-18 54

Table A E.1. GTAP mapping of the aggregated sectors in simulations 61

Table A E.2. GTAP mapping of the aggregated regions in simulations 62

Annex Figures 49

Figure A A.1. What is the approximate share of data management cost in your firm's total costs? 49

Figure A A.2. Amidst the rising number of regulations imposing conditions for cross-border data transfers, have you taken any of the following actions? 50

Figure A A.3. Where are the costs most important and what is the nature of these costs? 51

Figure A A.4. Can you rank from most costly to least costly the following transfer mechanisms 52

Figure A C.1. Contribution of the different data flow regulation shocks (added cumulatively) 55

Figure A C.2. The projected change in real exports between regions with different data flow regimes (upper panel) and regions with different geopolitical... 57

Figure A D.1. Contribution of the different data localisation shocks, added cumulatively 59

Figure A D.2. The projected change in real exports between regions with different data localisation regimes (upper panel) and regions with different geopolitical... 60

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