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Title page 1

Contents 4

FOREWORD 5

INTRODUCTION 6

CHAPTER I. Geopolitics and energy security 10

CHAPTER II. Energy markets 20

CHAPTER III. Path to net-zero emissions 32

CHAPTER IV. Technological drivers of the energy transition 44

CONCLUSION 54

APPENDIX 56

Figures 12

Figure 1. What will be the biggest risk in energy geopolitics in the coming year? 12

Figure 2. Over the next ten years, what will be the most important cause of energy market volatility? 24

Figure 3. Over the next ten years, what will be the most important cause of energy market volatility? 25

Figure 4. Mean expected time of peak oil (by region/country and sector) 28

Figure 5. Which of these statements best describes the future of natural gas? 29

Figure 6. Median year estimated for achieving net zero (by sector and region/country) 38

Figure 7. When will net-zero greenhouse gas emissions be achieved? 39

Figure 8. What do you think would be the impact of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 on global economic growth? 42

Figure 9. Which of the following are likely to impede global energy systems from reaching net-zero emissions by 2050? 43

Figure 10. Which segment of the energy sector will see the greatest growth in investment in 2025? 52

Figure 11. Which segment of the energy sector will see the greatest growth in investment in 2025 (by region)? 53