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동의어 포함

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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Executive summary 8

1. Productivity in a shifting geopolitical and economic landscape 9

Weak overall productivity growth in 2023 and 2024 9

Productivity growth differed across countries 10

Slow MFP growth explained most of the weak labour productivity performance in 2023, with capital deepening playing only minor role 12

Labour productivity growth continues to be shaped by within-industry developments and large firms' productivity growth 13

Cross-country variation in productivity growth primarily reflected structural factors in 2023 14

Challenges and opportunities for future productivity trends 15

Data sources 17

References 17

2. Productivity and economic growth 19

Context and overview 19

GDP growth: Contributions from labour, capital and multifactor productivity 20

Labour productivity growth: Contributions from capital and multifactor productivity 22

GDP growth: Contributions from employment, hours worked per worker, and labour productivity 24

Data sources 26

References 26

3. Investment 27

Context and key findings 27

Data sources 32

References 32

4. Cross-country comparisons of labour productivity levels 33

Context 33

Size of output 33

Hours worked and employment 36

Labour productivity 40

Data sources 43

References 43

5. Industry contributions to aggregate labour productivity growth 44

Context and key findings 44

Data sources 51

References 51

6. Industry-level multifactor productivity growth 52

Context and key findings 52

Data sources 59

Reference 59

7. Productivity in SMEs and large firms 61

Context and key findings 61

Data sources 65

References 65

8. Cyclical adjustment of multifactor productivity 67

Context and key findings 67

Cyclically-adjusted MFP growth in the manufacturing industry 68

What does cyclical adjustment reveal about long-term trends in MFP growth? 70

References 72

Annex 8.A. Methodology 73

How to read the indicators 73

Performance across models is robust 74

9. Insights on productivity developments in 2024 75

Context and key findings 75

What happened in 2024? 76

The underlying forces driving the predictions 79

Data sources 81

References 81

Annex 9.A. Methodology 82

Tables 6

Table 3.1. Breakdown of fixed capital assets according to the System of National Accounts 2008 32

Figures 6

Figure 1.1. Labour productivity growth since 1995 10

Figure 1.2. Labour productivity growth across countries in 2023 11

Figure 1.3. Multifactor productivity growth in 2023 12

Figure 1.4. Contributions to labour productivity growth 14

Figure 1.5. AI's predicted annual labour productivity gains over the next ten years across studies 16

Figure 2.1. Labour, capital, and multifactor productivity contributions to GDP growth 20

Figure 2.2. Contributions to annual labour productivity growth: Capital stock to output ratio, capital quality and multifactor productivity 23

Figure 2.3. Contributions to annual GDP growth from changes in labour productivity, hours worked, and employment in 2023 25

Figure 3.1. Annual change in investment rate 28

Figure 3.2. Decomposition of investment by assets 29

Figure 3.3. Annual change in investment rate by asset type 30

Figure 3.4. Difference in investment rate by asset type 31

Figure 4.1. Relative size of OECD economies based on GDP current PPPs 34

Figure 4.2. Relative size of OECD economies based on GDP current exchange rates 35

Figure 4.3. Relative size of the workforce in OECD economies, based on hours worked, 2023 37

Figure 4.4. Relative size of the workforce in OECD economies, based on employment, 2023 38

Figure 4.5. Average hours worked per worker across countries, 2023 38

Figure 4.6. Labour productivity in 2023 41

Figure 4.7. Labour productivity gap relative to the OECD average 41

Figure 4.8. Labour productivity levels based in 2023 42

Figure 5.1. Decomposition of labour productivity growth 45

Figure 5.2. Industry contributions to cross-industry reallocation effect 47

Figure 5.3. Industry contributions to within-industry effect, 2023 49

Figure 6.1. MFP growth for the total economy 54

Figure 6.2. MFP growth across industries compared to the total economy 55

Figure 6.3. MFP growth in selected industries across G7 countries 56

Figure 6.4. MFP contribution to labour productivity in selected industries: G7 average 58

Figure 7.1. Labour productivity in SMEs and large firms, business economy 63

Figure 7.2. Labour productivity in SMEs and large firms, manufacturing 63

Figure 7.3. Labour productivity in SMEs and large firms, business services 64

Figure 8.1. Comparison of cyclically-adjusted MFP growth 69

Figure 8.2. Comparison of cyclically adjusted MFP growth for France 70

Figure 8.3. Adjusted MFP time series for selected OECD countries, 1995-2022 71

Figure 9.1. Labour productivity growth nowcast for 2024 77

Figure 9.2. Labour productivity growth by region, nowcast for 2024 78

Figure 9.3. Country-level labour productivity growth, nowcast for 2024 79

Figure 9.4. Feature importance by domains 80

Figure 9.5. Feature importance by variable scope 80

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. AI emergence and its implications for productivity 15

Annex Tables 6

Annex Table 8.A.1. Best cyclical-adjustment approach by country 74

Annex Figures 7

Annex Figure 8.A.1. Main steps for the cyclical adjustment technique 73

Annex Figure 9.A.1. Main steps of the empirical strategy 82