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동의어 포함
Title page 1
Contents 5
Foreword 4
Executive summary 8
1. Productivity in a shifting geopolitical and economic landscape 9
Weak overall productivity growth in 2023 and 2024 9
Productivity growth differed across countries 10
Slow MFP growth explained most of the weak labour productivity performance in 2023, with capital deepening playing only minor role 12
Labour productivity growth continues to be shaped by within-industry developments and large firms' productivity growth 13
Cross-country variation in productivity growth primarily reflected structural factors in 2023 14
Challenges and opportunities for future productivity trends 15
Data sources 17
References 17
2. Productivity and economic growth 19
Context and overview 19
GDP growth: Contributions from labour, capital and multifactor productivity 20
Labour productivity growth: Contributions from capital and multifactor productivity 22
GDP growth: Contributions from employment, hours worked per worker, and labour productivity 24
Data sources 26
References 26
3. Investment 27
Context and key findings 27
Data sources 32
References 32
4. Cross-country comparisons of labour productivity levels 33
Context 33
Size of output 33
Hours worked and employment 36
Labour productivity 40
Data sources 43
References 43
5. Industry contributions to aggregate labour productivity growth 44
Context and key findings 44
Data sources 51
References 51
6. Industry-level multifactor productivity growth 52
Context and key findings 52
Data sources 59
Reference 59
7. Productivity in SMEs and large firms 61
Context and key findings 61
Data sources 65
References 65
8. Cyclical adjustment of multifactor productivity 67
Context and key findings 67
Cyclically-adjusted MFP growth in the manufacturing industry 68
What does cyclical adjustment reveal about long-term trends in MFP growth? 70
References 72
Annex 8.A. Methodology 73
How to read the indicators 73
Performance across models is robust 74
9. Insights on productivity developments in 2024 75
Context and key findings 75
What happened in 2024? 76
The underlying forces driving the predictions 79
Data sources 81
References 81
Annex 9.A. Methodology 82
Tables 6
Table 3.1. Breakdown of fixed capital assets according to the System of National Accounts 2008 32
Figures 6
Figure 1.1. Labour productivity growth since 1995 10
Figure 1.2. Labour productivity growth across countries in 2023 11
Figure 1.3. Multifactor productivity growth in 2023 12
Figure 1.4. Contributions to labour productivity growth 14
Figure 1.5. AI's predicted annual labour productivity gains over the next ten years across studies 16
Figure 2.1. Labour, capital, and multifactor productivity contributions to GDP growth 20
Figure 2.2. Contributions to annual labour productivity growth: Capital stock to output ratio, capital quality and multifactor productivity 23
Figure 2.3. Contributions to annual GDP growth from changes in labour productivity, hours worked, and employment in 2023 25
Figure 3.1. Annual change in investment rate 28
Figure 3.2. Decomposition of investment by assets 29
Figure 3.3. Annual change in investment rate by asset type 30
Figure 3.4. Difference in investment rate by asset type 31
Figure 4.1. Relative size of OECD economies based on GDP current PPPs 34
Figure 4.2. Relative size of OECD economies based on GDP current exchange rates 35
Figure 4.3. Relative size of the workforce in OECD economies, based on hours worked, 2023 37
Figure 4.4. Relative size of the workforce in OECD economies, based on employment, 2023 38
Figure 4.5. Average hours worked per worker across countries, 2023 38
Figure 4.6. Labour productivity in 2023 41
Figure 4.7. Labour productivity gap relative to the OECD average 41
Figure 4.8. Labour productivity levels based in 2023 42
Figure 5.1. Decomposition of labour productivity growth 45
Figure 5.2. Industry contributions to cross-industry reallocation effect 47
Figure 5.3. Industry contributions to within-industry effect, 2023 49
Figure 6.1. MFP growth for the total economy 54
Figure 6.2. MFP growth across industries compared to the total economy 55
Figure 6.3. MFP growth in selected industries across G7 countries 56
Figure 6.4. MFP contribution to labour productivity in selected industries: G7 average 58
Figure 7.1. Labour productivity in SMEs and large firms, business economy 63
Figure 7.2. Labour productivity in SMEs and large firms, manufacturing 63
Figure 7.3. Labour productivity in SMEs and large firms, business services 64
Figure 8.1. Comparison of cyclically-adjusted MFP growth 69
Figure 8.2. Comparison of cyclically adjusted MFP growth for France 70
Figure 8.3. Adjusted MFP time series for selected OECD countries, 1995-2022 71
Figure 9.1. Labour productivity growth nowcast for 2024 77
Figure 9.2. Labour productivity growth by region, nowcast for 2024 78
Figure 9.3. Country-level labour productivity growth, nowcast for 2024 79
Figure 9.4. Feature importance by domains 80
Figure 9.5. Feature importance by variable scope 80
Boxes 7
Box 1.1. AI emergence and its implications for productivity 15
Annex Tables 6
Annex Table 8.A.1. Best cyclical-adjustment approach by country 74
Annex Figures 7
Annex Figure 8.A.1. Main steps for the cyclical adjustment technique 73
Annex Figure 9.A.1. Main steps of the empirical strategy 82
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