Title page 1

Contents 6

Foreword 4

Abbreviations 10

Executive summary 14

1. Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects 17

1.1. Recent developments in agricultural markets 18

1.2. Expected macroeconomic and policy trends affecting agricultural markets 21

1.2.1. A slowing pace of global population growth with regional differences 21

1.2.2. Stable global economic growth 22

1.2.3. Easing of energy prices as fossil fuel demand weakens 22

1.2.4. Existing policies are held constant in the baseline 23

1.2.5. Projections are subject to considerable uncertainty 23

1.3. Consumption: Projected evolution for 2025-2034 25

1.3.1. Emerging economies underpin consumption growth of agricultural commodities 25

1.3.2. As incomes grow, consumption in low- and middle-income countries is projected to include more livestock and fish products 26

1.3.3. Growing feed use is underpinned by herd expansions and increasing intensification of livestock and aquaculture production systems... 29

1.3.4. Middle-income countries lead the expansion in biofuel use of primary agricultural commodities 30

1.4. Production: Projected evolution for 2025-2034 32

1.4.1. Growing consumption and shifting dietary preferences towards animal-source foods are expected to drive investments in livestock and aquaculture... 32

1.4.2. Rising global agricultural and fish production, along with a shift towards higher animal production, is set to increase agricultural GHG emissions 34

1.4.3. Global agricultural growth will be driven by productivity gains, reducing the carbon intensity of the sector, but large productivity gaps will remain 36

1.5. Scenario analysis: Achieving emission reduction and Zero-Hunger? 38

1.5.1. What are emission reduction technologies? 38

1.5.2. Implementing emission reduction technologies in the Aglink-Cosimo model 39

1.5.3. Emission reduction technologies require lower productivity increases to achieve the Zero Hunger target in a sustainable manner 40

1.6. Trade: Projected evolution for 2025-2034 42

1.6.1. Trade flows between exporting and importing regions to grow 42

1.6.2. Trade plays a crucial role in enhancing food security, nutrition, and environmental sustainability 45

1.7. Prices: Projected evolution for 2025 46

1.7.1. Continued long-term decline in real global agricultural commodity prices hinges on sustained investment in productivity improvements 46

1.7.2. Stochastic simulations show the possible variation in price projections 47

References 49

Notes 51

2. Cereals 52

2.1. Projection highlights 53

2.2. Current market trends 53

2.3. Market projections 54

2.3.1. Consumption 54

2.3.2. Production 57

2.3.3. Trade 59

2.3.4. Prices 61

2.4. Risks and uncertainties 62

3. Oilseeds and oilseed products 63

3.1. Projection highlights 64

3.2. Current market trends 64

3.3. Market projections 65

3.3.1. Oilseed crush and production of vegetable oils and protein meal 65

3.3.2. Vegetable oil consumption 66

3.3.3. Protein meal consumption 67

3.3.4. Oilseed production 68

3.3.5. Trade 69

3.3.6. Prices 70

3.4. Risks and uncertainties 71

4. Sugar 73

4.1. Projection highlights 74

4.2. Current market trends 74

4.3. Market projections 75

4.3.1. Consumption 75

4.3.2. Production 77

4.3.3. Trade 81

4.3.4. Prices 82

4.4. Risks and uncertainties 83

Notes 84

5. Meat 85

5.1. Projection highlights 86

5.2. Current market trends 86

5.3. Market projections 87

5.3.1. Consumption 87

5.3.2. Production 88

5.3.3. Trade 93

5.3.4. Prices 93

5.4. Risks and uncertainties 94

References 96

Notes 96

6. Dairy and dairy products 97

6.1. Projection highlights 98

6.2. Current market trends 98

6.3. Market projections 99

6.3.1. Consumption 99

6.3.2. Production 100

6.3.3. Trade 102

6.3.4. Prices 104

6.4. Risks and uncertainties 105

Notes 106

7. Fish and other aquatic products 107

7.1. Projection highlights 108

7.2. Current market trends 108

7.3. Market projections 108

7.3.1. Consumption 108

7.3.2. Production 110

7.3.3. Trade 112

7.3.4. Prices 113

7.4. Risks and uncertainties 114

References 118

Notes 118

8. Biofuels 119

8.1. Projection highlights 120

8.2. Current market trends 120

8.3. Market projections 121

8.3.1. Consumption and production 121

8.3.2. Trade 127

8.3.3. Prices 128

8.4. Risks and uncertainties 129

9. Cotton 130

9.1. Projection highlights 131

9.2. Current market trends 131

9.2.1. Global cotton production to recover sharply in 2024/25 131

9.3. Market projections 132

9.3.1. Consumption 132

9.3.2. Production 134

9.3.3. Trade 137

9.3.4. Prices 138

9.4. Risks and uncertainties 139

References 140

Notes 140

10. Other products 141

10.1. Roots and tubers 142

10.1.1. Market overview 142

10.1.2. Current market situation 142

10.1.3. Main drivers for projections 142

10.1.4. Projection highlights 143

10.2. Pulses 144

10.2.1. Market overview 144

10.2.2. Current market conditions 144

10.2.3. Main drivers for projections 145

10.2.4. Projection highlights 145

10.3. Bananas and major tropical fruits 146

10.3.1. Bananas 147

10.3.2. Mango, mangosteen and guava 148

10.3.3. Pineapple 149

10.3.4. Avocado 150

10.3.5. Papaya 151

10.3.6. Uncertainties 152

Notes 153

Annex A. Glossary 154

Annex B. Methodology 159

Tables 9

Table 1.1. Biofuel production from major feedstock 31

Table 2.1. Rice per capita food consumption 56

Table 4.1. Selected indicators for the role of the Sugarcane Complex (SCC) in the energy sector 81

Figures 7

Figure 1.1. Market conditions for key commodities 19

Figure 1.2. Annual GDP per capita and population growth rates 22

Figure 1.3. Impact of shocks to fertiliser supplies on food prices (FAO food price index) 24

Figure 1.4. Use of agricultural commodities by type and income group 25

Figure 1.5. Contribution of food groups to total daily per capita caloric food intake 26

Figure 1.6. Animal source foods in total food intake 27

Figure 1.7. Extent of policy attention across different agro-food chain stages 29

Figure 1.8. Annual changes in protein output and feed protein consumption in non-ruminant livestock systems 30

Figure 1.9. Share of biofuel and other industrial uses in total use of agricultural commodities 32

Figure 1.10. Trends in global agricultural production 33

Figure 1.11. Share of animal production in total agricultural production 34

Figure 1.12. Direct GHG emissions from crop and livestock production by activity 35

Figure 1.13. Change in projected yields for selected commodities, 2022-24 to 2034 36

Figure 1.14. Average per capita food intake of main food groups (calorie equivalent) by country income group 41

Figure 1.15. Growth in agricultural production and GHG emissions 2022-24 to 2034, baseline versus scenario 41

Figure 1.16. Net agricultural trade of main agricultural commodities by region, in constant value 43

Figure 1.17. Fruit exports from Africa 44

Figure 1.18. Long-term evolution of commodity prices, in real terms 46

Figure 1.19. Baseline and stochastic intervals for selected international reference prices 48

Figure 2.1. Global use of cereals in 2034 54

Figure 2.2. Global cereal demand concentration in 2034 55

Figure 2.3. Regional cereal yields 58

Figure 2.4. Global cereal production concentration in 2034 59

Figure 2.5. Cereal trade as a percentage of production and consumption 60

Figure 2.6. Global cereal trade concentration in 2034 60

Figure 2.7. World cereal prices 61

Figure 3.1. Oilseed crush by country or region 65

Figure 3.2. Per capita food consumption of vegetable oil in selected countries 67

Figure 3.3. Average annual growth in protein meal consumption and animal production (2025-34) 68

Figure 3.4. Average annual change in harvested area for selected crops 69

Figure 3.5. Exports of oilseeds and oilseed products by country 70

Figure 3.6. Evolution of world oilseed prices 71

Figure 3.7. Average annual yield growth for palm oil and oilseeds 72

Figure 4.1. Trends in total consumption of caloric sweeteners 76

Figure 4.2. Sugar production by region 78

Figure 4.3. World production of sugar crops classified by their main uses 80

Figure 4.4. Raw and white sugar imports by region 82

Figure 4.5. Evolution of world sugar prices 83

Figure 5.1. Per capita meat consumption by income group and meat type 87

Figure 5.2. Projected changes in sectoral productivity indicators, 2034 vs base period 90

Figure 5.3. Strongest growth in GHG emissions from meat in Africa 91

Figure 5.4. Kilograms of CO₂-equivalent emissions per kilogram of livestock protein 92

Figure 5.5. Growth in meat trade expected to slow over the next decade 93

Figure 5.6. World reference prices for meat-rising in nominal, but falling in real terms 94

Figure 6.1. Per capita consumption of processed and fresh dairy products in milk solids 99

Figure 6.2. Per capita consumption of cheese in selected regions 100

Figure 6.3. Milk production and yield in selected countries and regions 101

Figure 6.4. Annual changes in inventories of dairy herd and yields between 2025 and 2034 102

Figure 6.5. Exports of dairy products by region 103

Figure 6.6. Imports of dairy products by region 104

Figure 6.7. Dairy product prices, 2004-34 105

Figure 7.1. World food and non-food uses of fish and other aquatic products 109

Figure 7.2. World aquaculture and capture fisheries production 110

Figure 7.3. Aquaculture production by region in 2034 and projected growth rates 111

Figure 7.4. Comparing growth rates in global production and trade of fish and other aquatic products 112

Figure 7.5. World fish and other aquatic product prices 114

Figure 7.6. Underestimation of aquaculture production after five years of simulation, 2022 116

Figure 8.1. Biofuel demand trends in major regions, 2034 vs base period 2022-24 121

Figure 8.2. Regional contribution of growth in biofuel consumption, 2034 vs base period 2022-24 122

Figure 8.3. World biofuel production from different feedstocks 122

Figure 8.4. World supply and demand for waste oils and fats 126

Figure 8.5. Biofuel trade dominated by a few global players 128

Figure 8.6. The evolution of biofuel prices and biofuel feedstock prices 128

Figure 9.1. Historical trends in consumption of textile fibres 133

Figure 9.2. Cotton mill consumption by region 134

Figure 9.3. Global players in cotton markets in 2034 134

Figure 9.4. Cotton yields and area harvested in major producing countries 135

Figure 9.5. Evolution of global sustainable and organic cotton 137

Figure 9.6. Trade as a percentage of cotton production and mill consumption 138

Figure 9.7. World cotton prices 138

Figure 10.1. Global players in roots and tubers markets in 2034 143

Figure 10.2. Per capita food consumption of pulses per continent 146

Figure 10.3. World banana outlook: Exports of bananas by the four major LAC exports 148

Figure 10.4. World major tropical fruit outlook: Global exports of the four major tropical fruits 152

Boxes 9

Box 1.1. OECD-FAO Baseline process and consideration of uncertainties 21

Box 1.2. The interconnected dynamics of synthetic fertiliser markets, policies, and agricultural markets 23

Box 1.3. The international food loss and waste policy environment: Key insights from the 2025 OECD report Beyond Food Loss and Waste reduction Targets 28

Box 1.4. The Hand-in-Hand Initiative: Transforming Agrifood Systems 37

Box 1.5. The role of fruits in Africa 43

Box 1.6. The role of trade in enhancing food security, nutrition, and environmental sustainability 45

Box 4.1. The role of the "Sugarcane Complex" in the bioenergy sector 80

Box 5.1. Productivity growth and GHG emissions from livestock 91

Box 7.1. Addressing the underestimation of aquaculture production growth in the FAO Fish model 116

Box 8.1. Why have waste oils and fats (WLF) become important biomass-based diesel feedstocks? 126