Title page 1

Contents 7

Foreword 4

Acknowledgements 5

Editorial 6

Abbreviations and acronyms 12

Executive summary 13

1. A Regional Plastics Outlook: Rationale and key findings 16

1.1. Introduction 17

1.2. Literature review 19

1.3. Scope of the Outlook 22

1.4. Methodology 23

1.5. Main insights from the Outlook 25

1.6. Structure of the remainder of the Outlook 37

Annex 1.A. Overview of the modelling approach 38

Annex 1.B. Methodology for data collection 43

References 46

Notes 52

Part I. The current situation for plastics 53

2. The current situation for plastics use, waste and end-of-life fates 54

2.1. Introduction 56

2.2. Per capita plastics use and intensity are very heterogenous across the APT 56

2.3. Total plastics use is growing substantially 58

2.4. Short-lived plastic products constitute the largest part of waste 62

2.5. Substantial gaps in waste management systems exacerbate plastic pollution 64

2.6. Plastic leakage to the environment is substantial 75

References 77

Notes 79

3. The landscape of current policies to tackle plastic pollution 80

3.1. Introduction 81

3.2. Most APT countries have developed national plans to tackle plastic pollution 83

3.3. There are large policy opportunities to promote segregated collection and recycling, and contribute to closing leakage pathways 88

3.4. Reduction and eco-design measures vary in use across the APT region, but remain largely underutilised overall 92

3.5. Weak enforcement hinders policy effectiveness in closing leakage pathways 96

References 98

Notes 102

Part II. Baseline projections to 2050 103

4. The projected lifecycle of plastics to 2050 104

4.1. Introduction 106

4.2. Socio-economic trends to 2050 differ widely between APT countries 106

4.3. Plastics use will almost double by 2050 112

4.4. Steady growth in plastic waste leads to larger volumes of recycling and mismanaged waste to 2050 119

Annex 4.A. Detailed results on the Baseline projections 126

References 133

Notes 134

5. Projections of environmental impacts to 2050 135

5.1. Introduction 137

5.2. The APT is projected to remain a hotspot for plastic leakage to the environment under current policies, despite some progress 137

5.3. Aquatic stocks are projected to triple by 2050, with the fastest growth in ASEAN 138

5.4. Plastics cross borders, leading to transboundary impacts 142

5.5. Greenhouse gas emissions for the plastic lifecycle are projected to double 145

Annex 5.A. Detailed results 147

References 150

Notes 150

Part III. Pathways to ending plastic pollution 151

6. Policy scenarios to halt plastic leakage to the environment 152

6.1. Introduction 154

6.2. Comprehensive, stringent policies can eliminate plastic leakage 156

6.3. The benefits of ending plastic leakage come with modest economic impacts as a share of GDP, but they are unevenly distributed 166

6.4. The Differentiated Stringency scenario is costlier and cannot eliminate plastic leakage 170

6.5. The High Stringency scenario can deliver large benefits for the region, but global ambition remains critical 176

Annex 6.A. Details of the modelling set-up 181

Annex 6.B. Detailed results of the policy scenarios 182

References 189

Notes 190

7. A roadmap for turning ambition into action 192

7.1. Introduction 194

7.2. A coherent policy mix 196

7.3. Some considerations for the implementation of ambitious policy packages 205

Annex 7.A. Additional information 213

References 214

Notes 218

Tables 10

Table 1.1. Details of the regional aggregation of the APT region in the modelling framework 24

Table 1.2. The share of plastic waste in the APT that leaks to the environment is reduced to near zero in the High Stringency scenario 31

Table 2.1. Plastics use per capita varies by a factor 4 and plastic intensity by a factor 2 across APT countries 56

Table 2.2. Packaging is the main plastics application despite regional differences 60

Table 2.3. APT countries engage in significant trade of plastics 62

Table 2.4. Per capita plastic waste generation correlates with per capita plastics use but is influenced by average lifetimes of plastics in use 64

Table 2.5. Current waste collection systems are inadequate in most APT countries 67

Table 2.6. Current waste infrastructure in APT is insufficient to curb leakage into the environment 69

Table 2.7. Plastic waste net imports are relatively modest compared to waste generation 74

Table 3.1. National action plans status in the APT countries 84

Table 3.2. Plastic waste management and reduction has become a policy priority in the APT 85

Table 3.3. Incentives for recycling can be significantly strengthened 89

Table 3.4. ASEAN countries do not yet employ more advanced policies for better sorting at source 91

Table 3.5. The promotion of recycled content and recyclability is emerging in the APT, but there are large opportunities for higher circularity in the plastic lifecycle 94

Table 3.6. The choice of reduction policies varies across APT countries 95

Table 3.7. Examined policy intervention areas critical to closing leakage pathways 96

Table 3.8. Existing policies are not sufficiently enforced in many APT countries 97

Table 4.1. Despite more efficient production of manufacturing goods, plastic inputs will tend to remain a constant share of manufacturing inputs 112

Table 5.1. Plastics use per capita and plastic intensity 142

Table 6.1. Quantification of the policies in the High Stringency scenario 155

Table 6.2. Plastic leakage is reduced to near zero in the High Stringency scenario 166

Table 6.3. More leaked plastics from outside the APT region accumulate in ASEAN than in the Plus Three 179

Table 7.1. Key insights from the review of the current policy stocktake in APT 195

Table 7.2. Selected examples of improvements necessary to align plastics use and waste with High Stringency 198

Table 7.3. Selected examples of improvements necessary to align waste treatment with High Stringency 201

Figures 9

Figure 1.1. There is scope to increase policy ambition in the APT region 26

Figure 1.2. Plastics have grown rapidly and are projected to continue to grow in the Baseline projection 28

Figure 1.3. An ambitious regional policy package can eliminate plastic leakage in the APT region 30

Figure 1.4. The overall costs of ambitious policies are modest, but concentrated in lower middle-income countries in the region 32

Figure 1.5. The High Stringency policies constrain plastics-related industrial sectors and boost substitute-producing sectors 33

Figure 1.6. Ambitious policies across the plastic lifecycle result in lower macroeconomic costs than differentiated policies for the APT region as a whole,... 35

Figure 1.7. Roadmap of the Outlook 37

Figure 2.1. Plastics use per capita and plastic intensity tend to increase as countries advance in their economic development 57

Figure 2.2. Plastics use has grown nine-fold in the last 3 decades in the APT 58

Figure 2.3. A significant share of plastics is used for packaging and made of polyethylene (PE) 59

Figure 2.4. Sectoral plastics use differs widely across the APT countries 60

Figure 2.5. Different APT countries use different production processes to produce plastics 61

Figure 2.6. Nearly two-thirds of plastic waste comes from packaging, textiles and consumer products 63

Figure 2.7. In most APT countries, more plastic waste is mismanaged than recycled 65

Figure 2.8. Only a small portion of plastic waste is recycled into new plastics 66

Figure 2.9. Formal and informal recycling volumes and losses differ across regions 72

Figure 2.10. Flows of plastics in rivers, lakes and oceans pollute the aquatic environment in the APT region 76

Figure 3.1. Paths to ending end plastic pollution: examples of policies employed by countries 82

Figure 3.2. Overview of the policy landscape review 82

Figure 4.1. Population in APT countries is projected to stabilise by 2050 107

Figure 4.2. As growth in global GDP slows down, the share of the APT region is projected to grow 108

Figure 4.3. The share of ASEAN countries in GDP in the APT region is projected to rise from 20% to 27% 109

Figure 4.4. Several ASEAN countries are projected to have fast GDP per capita growth 110

Figure 4.5. APT countries are shifting towards more service-oriented economies 111

Figure 4.6. Plastics use in the APT region is projected to almost double, mostly driven by economic growth 113

Figure 4.7. Plastics use is projected to grow faster in ASEAN than in the Plus Three countries 114

Figure 4.8. Primary plastics will still represent the bulk of plastic production in 2050 115

Figure 4.9. Per capita plastics use will increase in all countries by mid-century 116

Figure 4.10. Plastics use and population have heterogenous dynamics across APT countries 117

Figure 4.11. Plastics use will grow the most in transportation by 2050 118

Figure 4.12. Plastic waste is projected to more than double by 2050 120

Figure 4.13. Plastic waste will grow faster in most ASEAN countries than the global average 121

Figure 4.14. More plastic waste and better waste management drive the increase in recycled waste 122

Figure 4.15. The increase in mismanaged plastic waste is only partly offset by better waste management 123

Figure 4.16. Mismanaged plastic waste rates remain high in ASEAN and China 124

Figure 4.17. Despite waste management improvements, less than one-quarter of plastic waste is projected to be recycled in 2050 125

Figure 5.1. The APT share in global plastic leakage is projected to decline, but still exceed one-third by 2050 138

Figure 5.2. The majority of leakage to aquatic environments is to freshwaters, and over time sinks to river beds or contributes to ocean pollution 139

Figure 5.3. Rivers remain the main point of entry for plastic leakage and the main channel for plastic to reach the ocean, but there are differences across the APT 140

Figure 5.4. Lower middle-income countries receive the highest share of leaked plastics travelling through the coastlines 143

Figure 5.5. Significant volumes of plastic leakage are transported from China and countries outside the APT to the lower middle-income ASEAN countries 144

Figure 5.6. Visualisation of international transport of plastic leakage for 2050 145

Figure 5.7. GHG emissions from the lifecycle of plastics are projected to almost double by 2050 146

Figure 6.1. Policy instruments modelled in the policy scenarios 154

Figure 6.2. The decrease in plastics use ranges between 23% and 36% among APT countries 157

Figure 6.3. The largest decreases in plastics use applications are projected for packaging, construction and transportation 159

Figure 6.4. Secondary plastics use grows rapidly in the High Stringency scenario 160

Figure 6.5. A substantial overall reduction in plastic waste is projected in the High Stringency scenario 162

Figure 6.6. Massive increases in recycling rates are projected in all APT countries as part of the High Stringency scenario 163

Figure 6.7. Mismanaged plastic waste would be almost eliminated in the High Stringency scenario 164

Figure 6.8. The implementation of the High Stringency scenario has modest macroeconomic impacts 167

Figure 6.9. The High Stringency scenario constrains plastic-related industrial sectors and boosts substitute-producing sectors 168

Figure 6.10. Ending plastic leakage requires investments in waste management 170

Figure 6.11. Total plastics use in 2050 is substantially higher in Differentiated Stringency than in High Stringency 171

Figure 6.12. Mismanaged waste remains an issue in the Differentiated Stringency scenario 172

Figure 6.13. Plastic leakage is eliminated only in the High Stringency scenario 173

Figure 6.14. Lower ambition levels lower the GDP costs in ASEAN countries, but not in the Plus Three 174

Figure 6.15. Less ambitious policies can lead to higher waste management costs 175

Figure 6.16. Total plastic waste in the APT region is nearly the same in the High Stringency and Global High Stringency scenarios 177

Figure 6.17. The regional macroeconomic impacts are very similar between High Stringency and Global High Stringency scenarios 180

Figure 7.1. Examples of policy instruments employed to mitigate plastic pollution 197

Boxes 11

Box 2.1. Different definitions of mismanaged waste and recycling can yield varying estimates 66

Box 2.2. Brunei now manages more than 90% of MSW in sanitary landfills 70

Box 2.3. Delivering wastewater treatment in non-sewered areas: Japan's Johkasou system 71

Box 2.4. Mismanaged plastic waste generates substantial public health risks 73

Box 3.1. Advanced policy measures can ensure high waste collection and segregation 92

Box 6.1. Clarifications on the role of reduction policies in plastic pollution mitigation 157

Box 6.2. Four sectors will drive three-quarters of plastics use reduction 158

Box 7.1. A note on compostable plastics 200

Box 7.2. How China is shifting towards an integrated, circular plastic recycling system 203

Box 7.3. Achieving ambitious national targets on waste management requires stronger local financing, coordination and data systems 206

Box 7.4. Effective implementation needs strong multi-level governance and public engagement 207

Box 7.5. How Indonesia's waste banks incentivise the collection of recyclables in rural areas 211

Annex Tables 11

Annex Table 1.A.1. Mapping of plastics use by application to economic sectors 39

Annex Table 1.A.2. ENV-Linkages sectoral aggregation used for this outlook 40

Annex Table 1.A.3. ENV-Linkages regional aggregation used for this outlook 41

Annex Table 1.B.1. Summary of sources 43

Annex Table 1.B.2. Data sources on waste management 44

Annex Table 1.B.3. Data sources on domestic supply and demand of plastics 45

Annex Table 4.A.1. Plastic waste per capita projections 131

Annex Table 7.A.1. Overview of marine plastics-related knowledge platforms in the ASEAN Region 213

Annex Figures 10

Annex Figure 1.A.1. Mass balance budget model for plastic in global aquatic environments 42

Annex Figure 4.A.1. The population in the APT region will be aging considerably in the coming decades 126

Annex Figure 4.A.2. The drivers of GDP per capita growth are heterogenous 127

Annex Figure 4.A.3. APT countries are shifting towards more service-oriented economies 128

Annex Figure 4.A.4. Some fast-growing sectors have a high plastic intensity 130

Annex Figure 4.A.5. Increasing waste volumes combine with improved waste management to increase both recycled and mismanaged waste volumes 132

Annex Figure 5.A.1. The flows of plastics into rivers and lakes in ASEAN is substantially larger than outflows to the ocean 147

Annex Figure 5.A.2. Plastic leakage to aquatic environments in APT countries is projected to double by 2050 148

Annex Figure 5.A.3. Global GHG emissions are projected to keep growing by 2050 149

Annex Figure 6.A.1. Visual summary of the main policy scenarios 181

Annex Figure 6.B.1. Sectoral plastics use reductions in the APT regions 182

Annex Figure 6.B.2. Four 'hard to collect or recycle' polymers are relatively less reduced than other polymers 183

Annex Figure 6.B.3. All APT countries are projected to reach a secondary share over 40% by 2050 184

Annex Figure 6.B.4. Total plastics use percentage change with respect to Baseline in 2050 by scenario and application 185

Annex Figure 6.B.5. Primary and secondary plastics use by scenario 185

Annex Figure 6.B.6. End of life plastic fates by region and scenario, 2022-2050 186

Annex Figure 6.B.7. Domestic policies drive plastic leakage originating in the APT 187

Annex Figure 6.B.8. Relatively small amounts of leaked plastics that originate outside the APT enter APT aquatic environments annually 188

Annex Figure 6.B.9. Plastic leakage flows between regions in 2050 188