Title page 1

Contents 8

Foreword 4

Acknowledgements 6

Abbreviations and acronyms 11

Executive summary 12

1. Overview: Systems innovation in intermediary cities in Kenya and Mozambique 14

A critical moment for Kenya and Mozambique to think in systems 15

What are the trends resulting from the current systems? 16

How can systems thinking help intermediary cities in Africa to address their challenges? 19

The case studies: Kiambu, Nakuru, Beira, and Quelimane 21

Lessons from Kenya 23

Lessons from Mozambique 24

High leverage points: Areas for transformative change 26

Way forward 28

References 31

2. A systemic approach for local mitigation in Nakuru and Kiambu 33

A critical moment for Kenya to think in systems 34

Applying systems thinking to Kiambu and Nakuru 45

Envision: What does a sustainable city look like in 2050? 49

Understand: The system behind the trends 57

Identify: High leverage points 65

Co-design: A roadmap to systemic change 72

Annex 2.A. Climate policies in Kenya 90

Notes 91

References 92

3. A systemic approach for climate mitigation in Beira and Quelimane 96

A critical moment for Mozambique to think in systems 97

Taking systems thinking to Beira and Quelimane 105

Envision: What does a sustainable city look like in 2050? 107

Understand: The system behind the trends 114

Identify: High-leverage points 129

Co-design: A roadmap to systemic change 139

Notes 156

References 156

4. The way forward 159

The four cities can build on the process developed 160

Towards systemic change in Nakuru and Kiambu 161

Towards systemic change in Beira and Quelimane 173

References 184

Annex A. Understanding spatial dynamics 186

References 188

Tables 10

Table 2.1. Policy objectives, indicators and targets for addressing Nakuru's HLPs 80

Table 2.2. Policy objectives, indicators and targets for addressing Kiambu's HLPs 87

Table 3.1. Policy objectives, indicators and targets for addressing Beira's HLPs 145

Table 3.2. Policy objectives, indicators and targets for addressing Quelimane's HLPs 153

Figures 9

Figure 1.1. CO₂ emissions by sector in Kenya and Mozambique 16

Figure 1.2. Number of two and three wheelers and cars, and GDP per capita in Kenya and Mozambique 17

Figure 1.3. Built-up expansion in Kenya and Mozambique 18

Figure 1.4. The Iceberg model: A system's perspective to policymaking 19

Figure 1.5. A four-steps process to apply system thinking to intermediary cities 20

Figure 1.6. Paratransit contributes to induced demand, while sprawl acts as its multiplier and vice versa 25

Figure 1.7. Replacing paratransit with sustainable active modes in Quelimane 27

Figure 2.1. Kenya's urban population will continue to grow in the next decades 35

Figure 2.2. Built-up area will almost double in the next three decades 36

Figure 2.3. Kenya's GHG emissions are growing 37

Figure 2.4. CO₂ emissions by sector, number of two- and three-wheelers and cars, and GDP per capita in Kenya between 2005 and 2020 39

Figure 2.5. Two- and three-wheelers and cars relative to income in selected countries 40

Figure 2.6. Nairobi's modal split 41

Figure 2.7. Evolution of climate institutions in Kenya 42

Figure 2.8. Organisation of climate policy across levels of government 43

Figure 2.9. Spatial distribution of Kenya 46

Figure 2.10. What does a sustainable future look like in Nakuru in 2050 51

Figure 2.11. Kiambu: The city of the future 55

Figure 2.12. Induced demand in Nakuru and Kiambu 59

Figure 2.13. Transport CO₂ emissions are surging in both Kiambu and Nakuru 60

Figure 2.14. Urban expansion in Kiambu and Nakuru between 2000 and 2030 61

Figure 2.15. Sprawl is a multiplier of induced demand, and vice versa... 62

Figure 2.16. Measuring sprawl in Kenyan counties 64

Figure 2.17. Low-attractiveness trap of sustainable transport modes 65

Figure 2.18. HLP: Moving towards sustainable accessibility as new objective of the system 66

Figure 2.19. Aligning infrastructure planning with sustainable goals 68

Figure 2.20. Limiting sprawl will require going from a mobility to an accessibility-oriented system 69

Figure 2.21. Getting public transport out of the trap 70

Figure 2.22. The ASI framework 79

Figure 2.23. Perceived influence and support of key actors for urban development strategies in Nakuru 82

Figure 2.24. Perceived influence and support of key actors for urban development strategies for Kiambu 88

Figure 3.1. Mozambique's urban population will continue to grow in the next decades 98

Figure 3.2. Built-up area will triple in the next three decades 99

Figure 3.3. CO₂ emissions by sector and number of vehicles and GDP per capita in Mozambique 100

Figure 3.4. Two- and three-wheelers and cars relative to income in Kenya and Mozambique 101

Figure 3.5. Mozambique's population and people affected by hurricanes per Province 102

Figure 3.6. Evolution of Mozambique's climate policy 104

Figure 3.7. Mozambique's urban centres 106

Figure 3.8. Envisioning a sustainable version of Beira in 2050 110

Figure 3.9. Envisioning a sustainable version of Quelimane in 2050 113

Figure 3.10. CO₂ emissions in Beira and Quelimane 115

Figure 3.11. Beira city centre waiting for congestion 117

Figure 3.12. Beira's population and built-up area growth compared to 2000 levels 119

Figure 3.13. Sprawl is on the rise 120

Figure 3.14. Urban expansion in Beira between 2000 and 2030 121

Figure 3.15. Paratransit hindering the deployment of mass public transport 122

Figure 3.16. Replacing paratransit with sustainable active modes 124

Figure 3.17. Quelimane's population and built-up area 2005-30 compared to 2000 levels 125

Figure 3.18. Motorbikes may take over taxi bikes due to sprawl 126

Figure 3.19. Urban expansion in Quelimane between 2000 and 2030 127

Figure 3.20. Quelimane's exposure to flooding between 2000 and 2030 128

Figure 3.21. Beira's system and high leverage points 130

Figure 3.22. Distribute space in Beira's CBD before it becomes too disruptive 131

Figure 3.23. Channel population towards compact development 132

Figure 3.24. Getting mass public transport out of the trap 133

Figure 3.25. Quelimane's system and high-leverage points 135

Figure 3.26. Securing active mobility to avoid carbon lock-in 137

Figure 3.27. Promoting compact urban growth and the role of taxi bikes in the public transport system 139

Figure 3.28. Perceived influence and support of key actors for urban development strategies in Beira 147

Figure 3.29. Perceived influence and support of key actors for urban development strategies in Quelimane 155

Figure 4.1. Nakuru's investment plans, 2016-2034 166

Figure 4.2. Kiambu's investment plans, 2023-2027 167

Figure 4.3. Share of expenditure programmed for urban areas and transport infrastructure 168

Boxes 10

Box 2.1. National level actions to reduce transport emissions 37

Box 2.2. Kenya's county climate change financing mechanism 44

Box 2.3. Climate vulnerabilities in Kenya 44

Box 2.4. Picturing the Nakuru of the future 51

Box 2.5. Picturing the Kiambu of the future 55

Box 2.6. Sprawl in Kenyan counties 64

Box 2.7. Meadows' framework for high-leverage points 71

Box 2.8. UN-Habitat's Avoid–Shift–Improve framework for mobility 79

Box 3.1. Picturing a sustainable Beira in 2050 110

Box 3.2. Picturing a sustainable Quelimane in 2050 113

Box 3.3. Understanding paratransit services in Mozambique 118

Box 4.1. What has led to car dependency in many cities in OECD countries? 162

Box 4.2. Road space reallocation in OECD cities 163

Box 4.3. Lessons from Bogota: Advancing sustainable mobility through integrated planning 164

Box 4.4. Ruiru's mobility policy: Setting the basis for a sustainable public transport system 169

Box 4.5. Reframing mobility and urban life: The transformation of Pontevedra, Spain 172

Box 4.6. Taking stock of Beira's challenges in 2020 177

Box 4.7. Zoning and land-use management strategies in Quelimane 183

Annex Tables 10

Annex Table 2.A.1. Policies shaping climate action across different levels of government 90

Annex Table 2.A.2. Nakuru's climate policy tools 91

Annex Figure 10

Figure A A.1. How road capacity expansion generates traffic 186

Figure A A.2. Capturing the different dimensions of sprawl 187

Figure A A.3. Reinforcing and balancing loops shaping food intake 188