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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Basic statistics of Japan, 2025 8

Executive summary 9

1. Key Policy Insights 17

1.1. Reforms should continue to increase resilience to shocks 18

1.2. The economy is set to grow moderately despite external headwinds 20

1.3. Monetary policy should continue to normalise at a gradual pace 25

1.4. The financial system seems sound but faces risks 27

1.5. Building fiscal buffers and ensuring long-run fiscal sustainability 30

1.5.1. Prioritising fiscal consolidation 30

1.5.2. Addressing ageing-related costs 33

1.5.3. Increasing revenues and removing disincentives to employment 37

1.5.4. Improving the fiscal framework 40

1.6. Addressing labour and skill shortages 41

1.6.1. Making the labour market more flexible 43

1.6.2. Boosting the employment of female, older and foreign workers 45

1.6.3. Using digitalisation and artificial intelligence in care and education sectors 51

1.6.4. Adapting adult learning policies to changing labour market needs 51

1.7. Towards a climate-resilient net-zero economy 55

1.7.1. Accelerating implementation to reach targets 55

1.7.2. Ensuring the effectiveness of the Green Transformation Strategy 57

1.7.3. Decarbonising the power sector and accelerating renewable energy deployment 60

1.7.4. Reducing emissions from buildings and transport 62

1.7.5. Adapting to climate change 63

References 68

2. Reigniting productivity growth 73

2.1. Japan's productivity lags its peers 74

2.2. Strengthening competition 77

2.2.1. Overhauling cumbersome business regulations 78

2.2.2. Reducing distortions from state involvement and sectoral regulations 80

2.2.3. Reforming corporate governance further 81

2.2.4. Effectively leveraging public procurement 83

2.2.5. Reinforcing integrity for a level playing field 86

2.3. Encouraging foreign direct investment to unlock productivity spillovers 87

2.3.1. Lifting remaining regulatory barriers 88

2.3.2. Overcoming informal barriers to enhanced foreign investment 91

2.4. Mobilising resources for a more innovative and dynamic economy 93

2.4.1. Making the R&D system a catalyst for widespread innovation diffusion 94

2.4.2. Promoting an effective skills pipeline 97

2.4.3. Increasing the efficiency of resource allocation 101

2.4.4. Boosting the adoption of advanced digital technologies 106

References 112

Tables 7

Table 1. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth 11

Table 1.1. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 24

Table 1.2. Events that could lead to major changes in the outlook 25

Table 1.3. Steps towards monetary policy normalisation 25

Table 1.4. Past recommendations on monetary and financial policies 29

Table 1.5. Selected large-scale and multi-year expenditures 31

Table 1.6. Illustrative fiscal impact of recommended reform package 32

Table 1.7. Illustrative impact of selected proposed reforms on GDP per capita 33

Table 1.8. International comparison of selected health and long-term care settings 35

Table 1.9. Selected social insurance and tax exemptions related to work incentives 39

Table 1.10. Past recommendations on fiscal policies 41

Table 1.11. Ministries and agencies in charge of different policies for foreigners 50

Table 1.12. Share of off-the-job training, by provider type, 2024 54

Table 1.13. Past recommendations on labour market policies 55

Table 1.14. Past recommendations on environmental policies 65

Table 1.15. Recommendations on macroeconomic and structural policies 66

Table 2.1. Non-competitive procedures account for a substantial share of public procurement 85

Table 2.2. Main features of inward FDI screening systems in G7 countries 90

Table 2.3. The R&D tax credit system 96

Table 2.4. Recommendations to boost productivity growth 110

Figures 6

Figure 1. Temporary factors have recently pushed headline inflation down 10

Figure 2. The use of supplementary budgets should be limited 12

Figure 3. Participation gaps in adult learning are high 13

Figure 4. Labour productivity lags the OECD average 14

Figure 1.1. GDP per capita is below the G7 average 18

Figure 1.2. Domestic demand has been the main driver of growth 20

Figure 1.3. Nominal wage growth has gained momentum 20

Figure 1.4. Headline inflation has fallen recently, but inflation expectations remain above target 21

Figure 1.5. Corporate profits are supporting business investment 22

Figure 1.6. The United States and China are the main export destinations 22

Figure 1.7. The external sector remains resilient despite headwinds to goods exports 23

Figure 1.8. Monetary and financial conditions have remained accommodative 26

Figure 1.9. Bond market conditions need to be monitored closely 27

Figure 1.10. The financial system appears to be sound 28

Figure 1.11. Non-bank financial intermediaries should be closely monitored 29

Figure 1.12. Fiscal consolidation should continue 30

Figure 1.13. Significant adjustment is needed to set public debt on a declining path 32

Figure 1.14. Pension reforms need to balance adequacy and sustainability 34

Figure 1.15. Health data infrastructure and institutions are weak 36

Figure 1.16. Reforms could boost consumption and personal income tax revenues 38

Figure 1.17. There is room to boost work incentives for secondary earners 39

Figure 1.18. Supplementary budgets remain sizeable 40

Figure 1.19. The labour market is tight 42

Figure 1.20. There is a need to improve the matching of skills to labour market needs 42

Figure 1.21. Traditional labour market practices can lower the efficiency of allocation 44

Figure 1.22. Reforms can help mitigate the projected declines in employment 45

Figure 1.23. Non-regular employment is concentrated among female and older workers 46

Figure 1.24. Childcare reforms could boost work incentives for some secondary earners 47

Figure 1.25. Efforts to making greater use of foreign workers should be continued 48

Figure 1.26. There is room to improve the coverage of and access to adult learning 52

Figure 1.27. Policy reforms can help address barriers to participation in adult learning 53

Figure 1.28. Emissions have declined but more needs to be done to reach targets 56

Figure 1.29. There is room to expand market-based instruments 58

Figure 1.30. Faster permitting would help boost renewables 61

Figure 1.31. Electric vehicle adoption and charging infrastructure remain limited 63

Figure 1.32. Climate change is creating human and economic costs 64

Figure 2.1. The decline in the share of the working-age population has reduced GDP per capita 74

Figure 2.2. The level of hourly labour productivity lags the OECD average 74

Figure 2.3. Weak investment has been the main driver of low productivity growth 75

Figure 2.4. Complementary investments are needed to boost productivity 76

Figure 2.5. Business dynamism remains subdued 76

Figure 2.6. Labour productivity rises with firm size 77

Figure 2.7. There is scope for a more competition-friendly regulatory framework 78

Figure 2.8. The regulatory stance restricts competition in digital, legal, and accounting services 81

Figure 2.9. There is room to improve firm profitability and raise domestic investment 82

Figure 2.10. The quality and composition of corporate boards should be improved 83

Figure 2.11. Public procurement spending is high and concentrated by function 84

Figure 2.12. Levels of perceived corruption remain modest 86

Figure 2.13. Enforcement of anti-money laundering measures could be improved 87

Figure 2.14. Japan's capacity to attract foreign investment remains low 88

Figure 2.15. Regulatory restrictions on inward foreign investment are low 89

Figure 2.16. There is scope to boost bilingual disclosure, even among prime-listed companies 92

Figure 2.17. R&D spending is high but mainly linked to larger companies 94

Figure 2.18. The system's orientation towards broad-based innovation remains limited 95

Figure 2.19. SME participation in R&D support remains low 95

Figure 2.20. The number of researchers is around the OECD average, but has stagnated 98

Figure 2.21. Weak interest in research careers partly reflects complex academic transitions 99

Figure 2.22. Public support for SMEs remains high but credit pathways are changing 102

Figure 2.23. Bankruptcies and voluntary exits are on the rise 103

Figure 2.24. Prevalence of zombie firms is relatively high, especially among smaller firms 104

Figure 2.25. The ageing entrepreneurial class is reshaping SME business-succession patterns 106

Figure 2.26. The take-up of digital solutions faces bottlenecks 107

Figure 2.27. The use of generative artificial intelligence is growing but remains low 108

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Government reform priorities 19

Box 1.2. Quantification of selected policy recommendations 32

Box 1.3. Strong data health infrastructure and governance: Denmark and Finland 37

Box 1.4. Independent reviews of national tax systems 37

Box 1.5. Integrated three-pronged labour market reform 44

Box 1.6. Immigration policies in Australia 49

Box 1.7. Selected recent developments in immigration pathways 49

Box 1.8. Automating repetitive administrative tasks in schools in Korea and United Kingdom 51

Box 1.9. Independent climate advisory bodies 57

Box 2.1. Japan's inward FDI screening system 89

Box 2.2. Examples of streamlined inward FDI promotion frameworks 93

Box 2.3. Main characteristics of restructuring options in Japan's insolvency regime 105

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