Title page 1

Contents 6

Preface 4

Acknowledgements 5

Abbreviations 13

Introduction 16

Chapter 1. Employment impact assessment: An ILO perspective 26

1.1. Introduction 27

1.2. Coding of employment impact assessment studies 27

1.3. Employment impact assessments and social dialogue 32

1.4. Interviews with ILO officials on employment impact assessments 35

1.5. ILO's EmpIA-related training and engagement with financial institutions 38

1.5.1. International Training Centre courses on employment impact assessments 38

1.5.2. STRENGTHEN2 workshops on employment impact assessments 38

1.5.3. STRENGTHEN2 country-level training on employment impact assessments 40

References 40

Chapter 2. Macroeconomic policies for structural and social transformation: From diagnostics to dialogue 44

2.1. Introduction 45

2.2. Macroeconomic policy for structural and social transformation 45

2.2.1. The structural and social transformation challenge 45

2.2.2. Macroeconomic policy shifts in high-income and developing economies 46

2.3. Practices of dialogue 51

2.3.1. Practices of dialogue: Special occasions 51

2.3.2. Practices of dialogue: Across the policy cycle 55

2.4. Conclusion 64

References 65

Chapter 3. Financing development: The role of pro-employment budgeting and employment-related public expenditure reviews 70

3.1. Introduction 71

3.2. Development financing gaps in developing countries 71

3.2.1. Domestic factors contributing to the financing gap 71

3.2.2. External factors contributing to the financing gap 73

3.3. The role of pro-employment budgeting and employment-related public expenditure reviews 75

3.3.1. Policies prioritize employment, but public budgets do not 75

3.3.2. Employment budgeting calls for a change of mindset 76

3.3.3. Where and how to influence the budget 79

3.3.4. Employment-related public expenditure reviews within functional expenditure frameworks 81

3.3.5. Thematic areas of employment-related public expenditure reviews 82

3.3.6. Aligning employment-related public expenditure reviews with broader government priorities 84

3.3.7. Promoting coherence across policy areas 85

3.4. Country examples 86

3.5. Conclusion 88

References 90

Chapter 4. Assessing the economic and social dimensions of policies: Some applications of the structural model for sustainable development 93

4.1. Introduction 94

4.2. The social accounting matrix and core model 94

4.3. Equitable mining expansion in Namibia 98

4.3.1. Data and assumptions 98

4.3.2. Policy scenarios and results 99

4.4. Just energy transition in Bosnia and Herzegovina 101

4.4.1. Data and assumptions 103

4.4.2. Policy scenarios and results 103

4.5. Employment and household impacts of investment plans in Senegal: An SMSD-microsimulation analysis 108

4.5.1. Data and assumptions 108

4.5.2. Policy scenarios and results 111

4.6. Conclusion 115

References 116

Chapter 5. Economic and social impacts of transport corridor investments: A GIS data analysis for Kenya and Zambia 118

5.1. Introduction 119

5.2. Project descriptions 122

5.2.1. Kenya corridor road improvement project 122

5.2.2. Zambia corridor road improvement project 122

5.3. Data 123

5.3.1. Treated and untreated roads 123

5.3.2. Nighttime lights 123

5.3.3. Additional data 123

5.3.4. Descriptive statistics 124

5.4. Methods 125

5.4.1. Econometrics 125

5.4.2. Translating nighttime lights data to GDP and employment 126

5.4.3. Access to social infrastructure 127

5.5. Results 127

5.5.1. Main results 127

5.5.2. Pixel-level results 128

5.5.3. Nighttime lights, (local) GDP and employment 131

5.5.4. Access to social infrastructure 133

5.6. Discussion 134

5.7. Conclusion 141

References 142

Chapter 6. The impact of trade union rights on trade: An industry-level approach 146

6.1. Introduction 147

6.2. Motivation and theory 148

6.3. Prior empirical studies on the impact of trade union rights on trade 150

6.4. Trade union rights and democracy indicators 151

6.5. Aggregate-level results 154

6.6. Industry-level results 159

6.7. Conclusion 163

References 164

Appendix 1. Trade model data and the model and estimation method 168

Chapter 7. Building skills ecosystems for sustainable productivity improvements 174

7.1. Introduction 175

7.2. Skills and productivity: Conceptual problems and solutions 175

7.2.1. Current policy thinking about skills and productivity and their relationship 176

7.2.2. The skill cycle 178

7.2.3. Getting the policy balance right at the micro level: Encouraging better use of skills 180

7.3. Results from a review of the literature and cases of practical interventions 182

7.3.1. Micro level issues: The importance of bundles of practice and context 182

7.3.2. Macro-level issues: Varieties of skills systems and their reform 186

7.3.3. Meso-level issue: Positive externalities but serious reform challenges 189

7.4. Conclusions and policy implications 195

7.4.1. Empowering workplaces at the micro level 195

7.4.2. Embrace complexity of national skills systems 196

7.4.3. Engage with skills ecosystems at the meso level 196

7.4.4. Embrace collective capabilities over individual human capital 196

7.4.5. Recognize the dynamic nature of skills flows 197

References 197

Table 1.1. Summary of coding categories 28

Table 2.1. Key issues for employers' and workers' organizations in IRA design 54

Table 2.2. Key issues for employers' and workers' organizations in India's recovery programme design 55

Table 2.3. A typology of fiscal frameworks 57

Table 3.1. Number of countries reporting employment-related actions and expenditures 77

Table 4.1. Standard fully aggregated SAM with complete sequence of accounts: 2019 SAM for Namibia 96

Table 4.2. Temporary and permanent real income impacts on households 114

Table 5.1. Kenya: Project information on the Isiolo-to-Moyale corridor, by road section 122

Table 5.2. Zambia: Project information on the Nacala Road Corridor Project, by phase 123

Table 5.3. Summary statistics 125

Table 5.4. Travel speeds and categories used for calculating travel time to social infrastructure 127

Table 5.5. Kenya: Administrative-level treatment effect, two years after project completion 128

Table 5.6. Zambia: Administrative-level treatment effect, two years after project completion 129

Table 5.7. Pixel-level results 131

Table 5.8. Elasticity between nighttime lights and GDP, annual fixed effects 132

Table 5.9. Elasticity between employment and GDP, annual fixed effects 132

Table 5.10. Estimated percentage changes in nighttime lights, local GDP and employment after investments in road improvements in Kenya and Zambia 133

Table 6.1. Empirical studies of the impact of trade union rights on trade 150

Table 6.2. Impact of trade union rights on total exports, different fixed effects models, 2000-17 155

Table 6.3. Impact of trade union rights and democracy on total exports, 2000-17 156

Table 6.4. Impact of TUR on total exports excluding large trading and high-income countries as exporters, 2000-17 158

Table 7.1. The AMO approach 181

Table 7.2. Comparative skill formation systems 187

Boxes 12

Box 2.1. Principles 50

Box 2.2. The EU MTFF and the European social partners 59

Box 2.3. Expenditure reviews 60

Box 2.4. Monetary policy committees 62

Box 7.1. Upgrading informal apprenticeships, Jordan 183

Box 7.2. ILO's SCORE programme 185

Box 7.3. Driving productivity improvement: The "FIP SENAI Trail" vocational training case study, Brazil 190

Box 7.4. ILO's STED - Empowering women farmers in Malawi 192

Table B2.4.1. Composition of monetary policy committees, selected central banks 62

Table A1.1. Countries and territories included in the sample 169

Table A1.2. Descriptive statistics 172