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Title page 1
Contents 5
Foreword 4
Executive summary 10
1. Maintaining the reform momentum and strengthening the public finances 22
1.1. Growth has been resilient, supported by fiscal stimulus 23
1.1.1. After the strong rebound following the pandemic, growth has moderated 23
1.1.2. The financial sector appears in good health despite heightened external uncertainty 29
1.1.3. While the budget deficit has been reduced, rising public investment has supported activity 31
1.1.4. Growth is projected to be modest in the near-term, weighed down by external developments 32
1.1.5. Raising growth into the long-term will require continuing ambitious reforms to encourage greater investment and employment 34
1.2. Putting the debt ratio on a more prudent path will require sustained fiscal consolidation and stronger growth 38
1.2.1. Containing spending pressures and improving spending efficiency and integrity 43
1.2.2. Strengthening the revenue base and improving the mix 51
References 65
2. Engaging youth in the labour market amid population ageing 68
2.1. Amid an ageing population, young people are an underused resource 69
2.2. Improving education and the transition into work 70
2.2.1. Raising standards for all in the school system 71
2.2.2. Expanding the use of apprenticeships and curricular internships 74
2.2.3. Improving the job-relevance of tertiary education 75
2.2.4. Re-engaging those not in work, employment or training 78
2.3. Improving labour market conditions for young people in Italy 79
2.3.1. Labour taxes fall heavily on young people starting their careers 81
2.3.2. Job quality for young workers is low 81
References 87
3. Securing sustainable energy and competitive electricity supplies 90
3.1. More secure, sustainable and competitive energy supply is needed to support growth and address climate change goals 91
3.2. Developing renewables' role in electricity supply 95
3.2.1. Raising investment in solar and wind generation 95
3.2.2. Investing in electricity transmission 98
3.2.3. Expanding energy storage and back-up capacity to ensure stability 100
3.2.4. Supporting electrification of transport, buildings and industry 101
3.3. Ensuring stable energy supply at low prices 103
3.3.1. Pricing to encourage investment in a secure and efficient energy system 103
3.3.2. Improving support for vulnerable consumers and encouraging energy savings 104
3.4. Ensuring a diverse, efficient and reliable energy supply mix 105
References 110
4. Enhancing business dynamism to raise productivity 112
4.1. Productivity growth has been weak 113
4.2. Barriers to firm growth, investment and innovation weigh on productivity 114
4.2.1. Smaller less productive enterprises make up a large share of the economy 114
4.2.2. Aggregate productivity and investment growth have been slow 115
4.2.3. Small firms rarely scale up 117
4.3. Revitalising competition and reducing the compliance and regulatory burden on businesses 118
4.3.1. Removing barriers to competition 118
4.3.2. Reducing legal uncertainty, delays and costs 119
4.3.3. Improving insolvency procedures 122
4.3.4. Reducing the implicit regulatory and fiscal barriers to firms' expansion 123
4.3.5. Reducing the complexity of tax incentives 124
4.4. Improving access to finance 125
4.4.1. Improving access to bank-based financing 126
4.4.2. Further developing the corporate bond market 128
4.4.3. Developing credit markets to support investment 128
4.5. Bolstering innovation and investment in research and development 134
4.5.1. Directing public support to innovation 135
4.5.2. Strengthening firms' links to universities and building clusters 137
4.5.3. Accelerating the adoption of digital technologies, including AI 140
4.6. Strengthening managerial quality and workforce skills 141
4.6.1. Addressing the workforce's skill gaps 142
4.6.2. Improving managerial quality 146
4.6.3. Professionalising the management of family businesses 147
References 149
Figure 1. Italy's growth has been resilient to recent shocks 12
Figure 2. High pension costs and emerging spending pressures add to the challenge of fiscal consolidation and reducing high public debt 14
Figure 3. Many young people remain out of employment, education or training 15
Figure 4. High electricity prices weigh on energy security and competitiveness 17
Figure 5. Small firms employ most workers, but their productivity is generally low 18
Figure 1.1. Growth has been modest as the drag from trade restrictions and rising import competition outweighed higher investment 24
Figure 1.2. Industrial and services production have stabilised since early 2025 25
Figure 1.3. Inflation has stabilised but is higher than prior to the pandemic 26
Figure 1.4. Recent employment growth has been significant, especially in southern regions 27
Figure 1.5. Considerable potential remains to raise employment 28
Figure 1.6. Wage rates are rising but by less than in most countries and have not caught their pre-pandemic levels 28
Figure 1.7. Interest rates have stabilised but credit growth remains modest 29
Figure 1.8. Banking system vulnerabilities appear limited 30
Figure 1.9. The budget deficit is declining, supported by strong revenues 31
Figure 1.10. NRRP disbursements and improved risk ratings and borrowing costs cushion the fiscal consolidation's effect on the economy 32
Figure 1.11. Raising productivity, investment and the share of adults in work can sustain income growth as the working age population declines 35
Figure 1.12. Lifting institutional quality would help sustain higher investment and productivity growth 36
Figure 1.13. Closing the gender and age gaps in employment rates would support growth and incomes 38
Figure 1.14. Italy's debt ratio is higher than that of most other OECD countries and its pre-pandemic levels 39
Figure 1.15. Population ageing, climate change and defence create new spending pressures 40
Figure 1.16. Fiscal consolidation to offset looming spending pressures plus growth-boosting reforms would ensure the debt burden declines 41
Figure 1.17. Interest and pension expenditure weigh on public expenditure 44
Figure 1.18. The average income of pensioners is comparatively generous 45
Figure 1.19. Breaking the link between retirement age and life expectancy would be costly 46
Figure 1.20. While corruption experience remains rare, perceptions lag other economies 47
Figure 1.21. Revitalising the ageing public sector workforce will support its future performance 48
Figure 1.22. The tax system can be reoriented to reduce the burden on employment 52
Figure 1.23. Tax transparency and anti-money laundering measures compare well with peers, although the maximum value of cash transactions is relatively high 55
Figure 1.24. Both compliance and policy weaknesses contribute to a large VAT collection gap 56
Figure 1.25. Despite recent improvements, the labour income tax wedge remains high 57
Figure 1.26. Self-employment income makes up an unusually large share of high-income individuals' earnings 59
Figure 1.27. A smaller difference between the effective tax rates of employment and capital income would reduce distortions 60
Figure 1.28. Inheritance and gift tax revenues are low due to limited coverage and low rates 61
Figure 2.1. The share of youth not in employment, education or training remains high 69
Figure 2.2. Young adults' skills lag the OECD average in all domains 70
Figure 2.3. Teaching is not a well-paid occupation in Italy 71
Figure 2.4. The end-of-school-year break is very long 73
Figure 2.5. Very few students complete an internship 74
Figure 2.6. University funding is lower than in most other OECD countries 76
Figure 2.7. The share of new tertiary graduates is low, especially in STEM 78
Figure 2.8. The risk of being not in work or training is greater among those with low education or those who live in the South and the Islands 79
Figure 2.9. Many young Italians are not employed and live with their families 80
Figure 2.10. Flat lifetime earnings profiles and risk of poverty weigh on young workers' prospects 80
Figure 2.11. Employment protection regulations are very restrictive in Italy, and many youths have temporary job contracts 82
Figure 2.12. The funding for public employment services is low 84
Figure 3.1. Oil and gas remain central to Italy's energy mix 92
Figure 3.2. Italy's high electricity prices rose further when gas prices surged 93
Figure 3.3. The high cost of electricity in Italy reflects the high share generated by natural gas 94
Figure 3.4. Solar and wind generation potential is significant 95
Figure 3.5. Meeting renewable energy goals will require reviving the investment pipeline 96
Figure 3.6. Italy requires substantial additional investments in the transmissions system while containing the effect on costs 99
Figure 3.7. There is scope to further improve the efficiency of household heating 102
Figure 3.8. Italy's reliance on imported energy remains high 105
Figure 4.1. Labour productivity levels and growth lag other high-income economies 113
Figure 4.2. The large share of smaller firms weighs on productivity 114
Figure 4.3. Productivity growth has been sluggish in many sectors and productivity levels differ across regions 115
Figure 4.4. The slowdown in capital accumulation holds back growth 116
Figure 4.5. The rate of business exit and the share of high-growth enterprises are low 117
Figure 4.6. Barriers are high to entering services markets 119
Figure 4.7. Transparency of regulatory assessment processes lags most other OECD countries 121
Figure 4.8. Delays in insolvency procedures hinder the reallocation of productive resources 123
Figure 4.9. Employment protection legislation is restrictive 124
Figure 4.10. Non-wage labour costs and the tax wedge are high 124
Figure 4.11. Italian firms have relatively small balance sheets and many rely on debt financing 126
Figure 4.12. The interest rate spread faced by SMEs in Italy is higher than elsewhere 127
Figure 4.13. Financial literacy in Italy lags other EU countries 130
Figure 4.14. Venture capital activity lags most other OECD economies 133
Figure 4.15. Low R&D investment by firms of all sizes restrains productivity growth 135
Figure 4.16. Public support to R&D is low 135
Figure 4.17. Italian direct government funding and tax support for business R&D is low 137
Figure 4.18. Despite its universities' successes, Italy is a moderate innovator 138
Figure 4.19. Despite progress, digital intensity in Italian businesses remains relatively low 140
Figure 4.20. AI adoption lags other large economies 141
Figure 4.21. Management quality, especially in smaller firms, lags other OECD economies 142
Figure 4.22. Skill mismatches are high and training participation low 143
Figure 4.23. Participation in training is lower in smaller firms 144
Figure 4.24. Many workers, especially among the foreign-born, are overqualified for their job 145
Figure 4.25. Participation in management training is relatively low 147
Boxes 8
Box 1.1. The varied factors contributing to the recent weakness in industrial production 24
Box 1.2. Italy's exposure to renewed energy market disruptions 34
Box 1.3. The reforms and investments of the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan 37
Box 2.1. Some effective school-to-work transitions programs across the OECD 75
Box 2.2. Spain's 2021 reform of employment protection 82
Box 3.1. Spain's rising share of solar- and wind-generated electricity and its effect on prices 93
Box 3.2. Reforms and investments underway for energy transmission and security 93
Box 3.3. Some of Italy's efforts to simplify renewable energy project approvals 97
Box 3.4. Approaches to accelerating renewables generation in decentralised countries 100
Box 4.1. Raising financial literacy to mobilise savings 129
Box 4.2. Effective public support to R&D 136
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