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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Executive summary 10

1. Maintaining the reform momentum and strengthening the public finances 22

1.1. Growth has been resilient, supported by fiscal stimulus 23

1.1.1. After the strong rebound following the pandemic, growth has moderated 23

1.1.2. The financial sector appears in good health despite heightened external uncertainty 29

1.1.3. While the budget deficit has been reduced, rising public investment has supported activity 31

1.1.4. Growth is projected to be modest in the near-term, weighed down by external developments 32

1.1.5. Raising growth into the long-term will require continuing ambitious reforms to encourage greater investment and employment 34

1.2. Putting the debt ratio on a more prudent path will require sustained fiscal consolidation and stronger growth 38

1.2.1. Containing spending pressures and improving spending efficiency and integrity 43

1.2.2. Strengthening the revenue base and improving the mix 51

References 65

2. Engaging youth in the labour market amid population ageing 68

2.1. Amid an ageing population, young people are an underused resource 69

2.2. Improving education and the transition into work 70

2.2.1. Raising standards for all in the school system 71

2.2.2. Expanding the use of apprenticeships and curricular internships 74

2.2.3. Improving the job-relevance of tertiary education 75

2.2.4. Re-engaging those not in work, employment or training 78

2.3. Improving labour market conditions for young people in Italy 79

2.3.1. Labour taxes fall heavily on young people starting their careers 81

2.3.2. Job quality for young workers is low 81

References 87

3. Securing sustainable energy and competitive electricity supplies 90

3.1. More secure, sustainable and competitive energy supply is needed to support growth and address climate change goals 91

3.2. Developing renewables' role in electricity supply 95

3.2.1. Raising investment in solar and wind generation 95

3.2.2. Investing in electricity transmission 98

3.2.3. Expanding energy storage and back-up capacity to ensure stability 100

3.2.4. Supporting electrification of transport, buildings and industry 101

3.3. Ensuring stable energy supply at low prices 103

3.3.1. Pricing to encourage investment in a secure and efficient energy system 103

3.3.2. Improving support for vulnerable consumers and encouraging energy savings 104

3.4. Ensuring a diverse, efficient and reliable energy supply mix 105

References 110

4. Enhancing business dynamism to raise productivity 112

4.1. Productivity growth has been weak 113

4.2. Barriers to firm growth, investment and innovation weigh on productivity 114

4.2.1. Smaller less productive enterprises make up a large share of the economy 114

4.2.2. Aggregate productivity and investment growth have been slow 115

4.2.3. Small firms rarely scale up 117

4.3. Revitalising competition and reducing the compliance and regulatory burden on businesses 118

4.3.1. Removing barriers to competition 118

4.3.2. Reducing legal uncertainty, delays and costs 119

4.3.3. Improving insolvency procedures 122

4.3.4. Reducing the implicit regulatory and fiscal barriers to firms' expansion 123

4.3.5. Reducing the complexity of tax incentives 124

4.4. Improving access to finance 125

4.4.1. Improving access to bank-based financing 126

4.4.2. Further developing the corporate bond market 128

4.4.3. Developing credit markets to support investment 128

4.5. Bolstering innovation and investment in research and development 134

4.5.1. Directing public support to innovation 135

4.5.2. Strengthening firms' links to universities and building clusters 137

4.5.3. Accelerating the adoption of digital technologies, including AI 140

4.6. Strengthening managerial quality and workforce skills 141

4.6.1. Addressing the workforce's skill gaps 142

4.6.2. Improving managerial quality 146

4.6.3. Professionalising the management of family businesses 147

References 149

Tables 7

Table 1. Growth is projected to remain modest 13

Table 1.1. Modest growth is projected to continue in the near-term 33

Table 1.2. Events that could entail major changes to the outlook 34

Table 1.3. Reforms to raise institutional quality, labour force participation and quality and research would lift growth prospects 35

Table 1.4. Illustrative effect on fiscal balance of selected recommendations in this Survey 42

Table 1.5. Past recommendations to support growth and put public debt sustainability 43

Table 1.6. Past recommendations to contain spending pressures 51

Table 1.7. Extensive use of tax expenditures adds complexity to the tax system 53

Table 1.8. Past recommendations to improve the revenue mix 62

Table 1.9. Policy recommendations 63

Table 2.1. Past recommendations on the education system 79

Table 2.2. Past recommendations on labour markets 86

Table 2.3. Policy recommendations 86

Table 3.1. The NRRP includes substantial investments in energy security 94

Table 3.2. Past OECD recommendations on energy security 108

Table 3.3. Policy recommendations 109

Table 4.1. Past recommendations to revitalise competition and improve the efficiency of the judicial system 118

Table 4.2. Policy recommendations 148

Figures 6

Figure 1. Italy's growth has been resilient to recent shocks 12

Figure 2. High pension costs and emerging spending pressures add to the challenge of fiscal consolidation and reducing high public debt 14

Figure 3. Many young people remain out of employment, education or training 15

Figure 4. High electricity prices weigh on energy security and competitiveness 17

Figure 5. Small firms employ most workers, but their productivity is generally low 18

Figure 1.1. Growth has been modest as the drag from trade restrictions and rising import competition outweighed higher investment 24

Figure 1.2. Industrial and services production have stabilised since early 2025 25

Figure 1.3. Inflation has stabilised but is higher than prior to the pandemic 26

Figure 1.4. Recent employment growth has been significant, especially in southern regions 27

Figure 1.5. Considerable potential remains to raise employment 28

Figure 1.6. Wage rates are rising but by less than in most countries and have not caught their pre-pandemic levels 28

Figure 1.7. Interest rates have stabilised but credit growth remains modest 29

Figure 1.8. Banking system vulnerabilities appear limited 30

Figure 1.9. The budget deficit is declining, supported by strong revenues 31

Figure 1.10. NRRP disbursements and improved risk ratings and borrowing costs cushion the fiscal consolidation's effect on the economy 32

Figure 1.11. Raising productivity, investment and the share of adults in work can sustain income growth as the working age population declines 35

Figure 1.12. Lifting institutional quality would help sustain higher investment and productivity growth 36

Figure 1.13. Closing the gender and age gaps in employment rates would support growth and incomes 38

Figure 1.14. Italy's debt ratio is higher than that of most other OECD countries and its pre-pandemic levels 39

Figure 1.15. Population ageing, climate change and defence create new spending pressures 40

Figure 1.16. Fiscal consolidation to offset looming spending pressures plus growth-boosting reforms would ensure the debt burden declines 41

Figure 1.17. Interest and pension expenditure weigh on public expenditure 44

Figure 1.18. The average income of pensioners is comparatively generous 45

Figure 1.19. Breaking the link between retirement age and life expectancy would be costly 46

Figure 1.20. While corruption experience remains rare, perceptions lag other economies 47

Figure 1.21. Revitalising the ageing public sector workforce will support its future performance 48

Figure 1.22. The tax system can be reoriented to reduce the burden on employment 52

Figure 1.23. Tax transparency and anti-money laundering measures compare well with peers, although the maximum value of cash transactions is relatively high 55

Figure 1.24. Both compliance and policy weaknesses contribute to a large VAT collection gap 56

Figure 1.25. Despite recent improvements, the labour income tax wedge remains high 57

Figure 1.26. Self-employment income makes up an unusually large share of high-income individuals' earnings 59

Figure 1.27. A smaller difference between the effective tax rates of employment and capital income would reduce distortions 60

Figure 1.28. Inheritance and gift tax revenues are low due to limited coverage and low rates 61

Figure 2.1. The share of youth not in employment, education or training remains high 69

Figure 2.2. Young adults' skills lag the OECD average in all domains 70

Figure 2.3. Teaching is not a well-paid occupation in Italy 71

Figure 2.4. The end-of-school-year break is very long 73

Figure 2.5. Very few students complete an internship 74

Figure 2.6. University funding is lower than in most other OECD countries 76

Figure 2.7. The share of new tertiary graduates is low, especially in STEM 78

Figure 2.8. The risk of being not in work or training is greater among those with low education or those who live in the South and the Islands 79

Figure 2.9. Many young Italians are not employed and live with their families 80

Figure 2.10. Flat lifetime earnings profiles and risk of poverty weigh on young workers' prospects 80

Figure 2.11. Employment protection regulations are very restrictive in Italy, and many youths have temporary job contracts 82

Figure 2.12. The funding for public employment services is low 84

Figure 3.1. Oil and gas remain central to Italy's energy mix 92

Figure 3.2. Italy's high electricity prices rose further when gas prices surged 93

Figure 3.3. The high cost of electricity in Italy reflects the high share generated by natural gas 94

Figure 3.4. Solar and wind generation potential is significant 95

Figure 3.5. Meeting renewable energy goals will require reviving the investment pipeline 96

Figure 3.6. Italy requires substantial additional investments in the transmissions system while containing the effect on costs 99

Figure 3.7. There is scope to further improve the efficiency of household heating 102

Figure 3.8. Italy's reliance on imported energy remains high 105

Figure 4.1. Labour productivity levels and growth lag other high-income economies 113

Figure 4.2. The large share of smaller firms weighs on productivity 114

Figure 4.3. Productivity growth has been sluggish in many sectors and productivity levels differ across regions 115

Figure 4.4. The slowdown in capital accumulation holds back growth 116

Figure 4.5. The rate of business exit and the share of high-growth enterprises are low 117

Figure 4.6. Barriers are high to entering services markets 119

Figure 4.7. Transparency of regulatory assessment processes lags most other OECD countries 121

Figure 4.8. Delays in insolvency procedures hinder the reallocation of productive resources 123

Figure 4.9. Employment protection legislation is restrictive 124

Figure 4.10. Non-wage labour costs and the tax wedge are high 124

Figure 4.11. Italian firms have relatively small balance sheets and many rely on debt financing 126

Figure 4.12. The interest rate spread faced by SMEs in Italy is higher than elsewhere 127

Figure 4.13. Financial literacy in Italy lags other EU countries 130

Figure 4.14. Venture capital activity lags most other OECD economies 133

Figure 4.15. Low R&D investment by firms of all sizes restrains productivity growth 135

Figure 4.16. Public support to R&D is low 135

Figure 4.17. Italian direct government funding and tax support for business R&D is low 137

Figure 4.18. Despite its universities' successes, Italy is a moderate innovator 138

Figure 4.19. Despite progress, digital intensity in Italian businesses remains relatively low 140

Figure 4.20. AI adoption lags other large economies 141

Figure 4.21. Management quality, especially in smaller firms, lags other OECD economies 142

Figure 4.22. Skill mismatches are high and training participation low 143

Figure 4.23. Participation in training is lower in smaller firms 144

Figure 4.24. Many workers, especially among the foreign-born, are overqualified for their job 145

Figure 4.25. Participation in management training is relatively low 147

Boxes 8

Box 1.1. The varied factors contributing to the recent weakness in industrial production 24

Box 1.2. Italy's exposure to renewed energy market disruptions 34

Box 1.3. The reforms and investments of the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan 37

Box 2.1. Some effective school-to-work transitions programs across the OECD 75

Box 2.2. Spain's 2021 reform of employment protection 82

Box 3.1. Spain's rising share of solar- and wind-generated electricity and its effect on prices 93

Box 3.2. Reforms and investments underway for energy transmission and security 93

Box 3.3. Some of Italy's efforts to simplify renewable energy project approvals 97

Box 3.4. Approaches to accelerating renewables generation in decentralised countries 100

Box 4.1. Raising financial literacy to mobilise savings 129

Box 4.2. Effective public support to R&D 136