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Title page 1

Contents 6

Foreword 4

Acknowledgements 5

Abbreviations and acronyms 8

Executive summary 9

1. International efforts to address the steel crisis are intensifying 11

The steel crisis is deepening, but new policy solutions are on the horizon 12

Non-market policies and practices continue to drive global excess capacity and hamper the transition to low-emission steel production 14

Steel subsidisation rates are rising, mainly outside of the OECD area 14

Trade actions are increasing, but so are efforts to undermine and evade them 16

Export restrictions and raw materials pressures compound the threat of excess capacity to the industry's viability 18

International co-operation offers the prospect of lasting solutions to the crisis 19

References 20

2. Steel market and industry prospects 21

Global steel demand remains fragile in 2026 and beyond 22

Steel prices have diverged worldwide 25

Raw material prices have increased more than steel recently 26

World steel production 27

Financial conditions in the industry 30

World steel trade 30

References 34

3. Global steelmaking capacity reaches new highs 37

Structural excess capacity worsens 38

Recent developments in steelmaking capacity 38

The outlook for steelmaking capacity until 2028 40

Cross-border investment in steelmaking 44

Developments in ironmaking and direct reduced iron 46

References 47

4. Steel subsidies continue to increase, severely distorting markets 49

Growing steel subsidies are eroding market-driven behaviours 50

Monitoring support measures in selected countries and regions 52

References 59

5. Trade actions increase as the steel crisis worsens 64

Recent trade remedy investigations on steel products 65

Other measures affecting the steel trade 65

Trade diversion and the circumvention of trade measures 68

Export restrictions on steelmaking materials 69

References 72

Tables 7

Table 2.1. Global steel demand, by region, 2025, 2026, and 2030 projections 22

Table 2.2. Global steel production, by region, 2025, 2026, and 2030 projections 28

Table 2.3. Global steel exports by region, 2019-2025 32

Table 3.1. Global steelmaking capacity, by region, 2021-2025 40

Table 3.2. Global current nominal steelmaking capacity (2024-2025) and potential gross capacity additions (2026-2028), by region 41

Table 5.1. Trade measures, including those taken to address global overcapacity on steel markets, in 2025 and early 2026: Developments... 66

Table 5.2. Active export restrictions on ferrous scrap (major exporters) in selected economies, 2025 70

Figures 7

Figure 1.1. Global steel excess capacity projected to reach 745 million tonnes by 2028 12

Figure 1.2. China's steel exports have surged to record highs, unlike trends in other regions 13

Figure 1.3. Steel subsidies continue unabated in some non-OECD economies 15

Figure 1.4. Transmission channels of excess capacity globally 17

Figure 2.1. Hot-rolled coil prices are much higher in the United States and Europe 25

Figure 2.2. Rebar prices are increasing in the United States, while they remain stable (though at elevated levels) in the European Union 26

Figure 2.3. Prices for iron ore, metallurgical coal and scrap have been increasing 27

Figure 2.4. Profitability of steel firms in OECD Member countries and partner economies, 2006-2024 31

Figure 2.5. Chinese steel exports have surged in volume terms, less so in value terms 33

Figure 2.6. Steel imports from China and ASEAN increase as imports from OECD steel-producing economies fall 33

Figure 3.1. Trends in global steel capacity and demand have diverged over the past few years 39

Figure 3.2. Steel industry capacity utilisation rates are falling to unsustainable levels 39

Figure 3.3. Asian steelmaking capacity is expected to continue expanding rapidly 42

Figure 3.4. Chinese foreign investments are driving steel capacity expansions in Asia and Africa 45

Figure 3.5. Chinese state-owned enterprises are investing heavily in new integrated steel plants abroad 45

Figure 3.6. Large-scale blast furnaces are still being installed, particularly in emerging Asian economies 46

Figure 4.1. Steel subsidies in partner economies are driven by China, with the median Chinese firm receiving 15 times more subsidies... 50

Figure 4.2. Less subsidised steel firms are losing market share to more heavily subsidised competitors, despite having stronger financial performance 51

Figure 4.3. Higher steel subsidisation weakens the correlation between financial performance and market-share gains 52

Figure 5.1. Number of active antidumping and countervailing duty measures, by imposing and defendant countries, 2025 66

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