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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Executive summary 9

1. Macroeconomic developments and policy challenges 17

1.1. The Estonian economy is emerging from a protracted recession 18

1.1.1. Recovery has resumed but headwinds to convergence and growth persist 18

1.1.2. The recession was triggered by the large energy and trade shock 18

1.1.3. Inflation has been high and volatile, driven by tax increases, food and energy 20

1.1.4. Employment has slowed due to the contracting economy 22

1.1.5. Competitiveness losses have deepened the recession 23

1.2. The economic recovery is expected to continue 24

1.3. Risks to financial stability remain contained 27

1.4. Regulation and implementation of public integrity policies can be enhanced further 29

1.5. Fiscal policy turned countercyclical, supporting the economy in the near term 32

1.6. Despite low public debt, fiscal consolidation is needed to accommodate higher spending and fiscal risks 35

References 40

2. Adapting Government Spending And Taxation To Fiscal Pressures In An Ageing Estonia 43

2.1. Introduction 44

2.2. Although public sector is relatively lean, there is scope to raise the efficiency of spending and improve outcomes 45

2.2.1. Private savings should play a key role in future pensions provision 46

2.2.2. Long-term care spending is likely to rise 49

2.2.3. Spending pressures in healthcare are building 50

2.2.4. Adjusting family policy from universality to targeting, from cash benefits to services 53

2.2.5. The education system delivers world class results but faces shortages and wage pressures 56

2.2.6. Public employment increased in recent years, but management follows sound practices 60

2.2.7. The budgeting framework is robust and there is a focus on policy goals 62

2.2.8. Rising responsibilities of local governments call for a review of municipal financing 64

2.3. Mobilising new revenues while making the tax system more growth-friendly 66

2.3.1. Some scope remains to broaden the VAT base and raise environmental taxes 67

2.3.2. The tax system is skewed to labour taxes, including social security contributions 68

2.3.3. More revenue could be raised from capital and from firms 71

2.3.4. Property taxation should play a bigger role 74

References 78

3. Closing the gaps: faster decarbonisation and climate adaptation across sectors 81

3.1. From oil shale to renewables: climate mitigation progress and remaining challenges 82

3.1.1. Progress on lowering GHG emissions has been uneven 82

3.1.2. The transition to renewable energy faces bottlenecks 84

3.1.3. Further measures are needed to ensure stable electricity supply and secure the grid 86

3.1.4. Accelerating the low-carbon transition in transport 87

3.1.5. The energy transition puts higher pressure on low-income households 88

3.1.6. Strengthening forest management to support climate goals 89

3.2. Climate-related risks remain moderate but require early adaptation action 92

3.2.1. Rising climate hazards call for strengthening resilience 92

3.2.2. Awareness of climate risks can be strengthened 94

3.2.3. Accelerating climate adaptation to strengthen resilience across sectors and regions 95

References 100

4. Seizing the opportunities of AI-driven growth 103

4.1. Introduction 104

4.2. AI adoption is increasing rapidly but remains uneven across firms, sectors and business functions 106

4.3. Tackling barriers to wider adoption of AI 111

4.3.1. Pioneering AI use in the public sector 112

4.3.2. Ensuring compute resources and connectivity infrastructure for AI 113

4.3.3. Sustaining investments in AI innovation 115

4.4. Benefiting from a digitally skilled workforce 116

4.4.1. AI-related skills are fairly wide-spread but career transitioning is less common 116

4.4.2. Estonia is one of the first of OECD countries to test generative AI at scale in education 118

4.4.3. Students are increasingly interested in ICT and AI education 119

4.4.4. Capitalising on a burgeoning AI research community 121

References 123

Tables 7

Table 1. The recovery will continue 11

Table 1.1. Economic recovery will continue 26

Table 1.2. Low probability events that could entail major changes to the outlook 26

Table 1.3. Expenditures have increased faster than revenues 33

Table 1.4. Illustrative impact of selected reforms 38

Table 1.5. Illustrative impact of structural reforms on GDP level 39

Table 1.6. Main findings and recommendations 40

Table 2.1 Empirical estimates of Estonia's public sector efficiency 46

Table 2.2. Past recommendations and recent reforms in healthcare 52

Table 2.3. Overview of main benefits available to families 54

Table 2.4. Recent proposals for introducing a progressive personal income taxation 71

Table 2.5. Empirical studies assessing an impact of distributed profit tax in Estonia 73

Table 2.6. Progress on past key recommendations on need to rebuild fiscal space 75

Table 2.7. Main findings and recommendations 76

Table 3.1. Progress on past recommendations on decarbonisation 84

Table 3.2. Progress on past recommendations on electricity grid and permitting 87

Table 3.3. Progress on past recommendations on reducing emissions in transport 88

Table 3.4. Progress on past recommendations on building renovations 94

Table 3.5. Main findings and policy recommendations 99

Table 4.1. Main findings and policy recommendations for seizing the opportunities of AI 122

Figures 5

Figure 1. Economic convergence has stalled due to a protracted and deep recession 10

Figure 2. The fiscal deficit and debt are increasing 12

Figure 3. Estonia is not on track to meet climate targets 13

Figure 4. AI adoption is high in knowledge intensive sectors but lags in traditional sectors 14

Figure 1.1. Economic convergence was derailed by a substantial slump in manufacturing 19

Figure 1.2. Household purchasing power has yet to recover to its 2021 level 20

Figure 1.3. Services and food have driven inflation developments in recent years 22

Figure 1.4. The labour market has remained resilient, but youth unemployment has worsened 23

Figure 1.5. Estonia has lost market shares amid sharp increase in unit labour costs 24

Figure 1.6. Domestic demand will support recovery 25

Figure 1.7. Banks are well capitalised but exposed to commercial real estate 27

Figure 1.8. Household and business leverage is low but lending growth has accelerated 28

Figure 1.9. Loans to carbon-intensive industries account for a quarter of corporate lending 29

Figure 1.10. Perceptions and experience of corruption are low 30

Figure 1.11. Regulations for public integrity are strong but implementation in some areas lags 31

Figure 1.12. The deficit has widened, driven by higher defence spending 32

Figure 1.13. Half of Estonia's defence spending is allocated to procurement and infrastructure investment 35

Figure 1.14. The fiscal impact of the climate transition can be significant, largely due to a fall in tax revenues 37

Figure 1.15. A fiscal strategy is needed to stabilise the debt ratio in the medium-term 38

Figure 2.1. The Estonian population is ageing and the share of working age population will fall 44

Figure 2.2. Public expenditure is below many peer countries and Nordic neighbours 45

Figure 2.3. Public pensions are set to decrease with private savings playing a bigger role 47

Figure 2.4. Current savings in asset-backed plans are relatively low 48

Figure 2.5. Public coverage of long-term care costs is among the lowest in the OECD 50

Figure 2.6. Healthcare spending has increased but is currently low and so is life expectancy 51

Figure 2.7. Remuneration in the healthcare is lower than in other countries 52

Figure 2.8. Estonia spends more than 3% of GDP on family policy and achieves child poverty rates below the EU average 54

Figure 2.9. Family benefits are universal and could be better targeted 55

Figure 2.10. Family benefits are generous towards large families 56

Figure 2.11. Public expenditure on education is at the OECD average but Estonia achieves top results 57

Figure 2.12. The share of young people dropping out of education remains high 58

Figure 2.13. Starting teacher salaries are lower than in many OECD countries 59

Figure 2.14. The public sector is an important employer and its size has increased in recent years 60

Figure 2.15. The management of human resources in the public sector is decentralised 61

Figure 2.16. A visual tool for stocktaking of policy achievements 64

Figure 2.17. The population is likely to fall in most regions and municipal financing is determined largely by the central government 65

Figure 2.18. Estonia's tax burden is above the OECD average 66

Figure 2.19. Revenue is skewed towards indirect taxes and labour incomes 67

Figure 2.20. Value added taxation raises a large share of revenue and is regressive 68

Figure 2.21. The labour tax wedge is high 69

Figure 2.22. The redistributive impact of the tax and benefit system is close to the OECD average 70

Figure 2.23. Taxation of personal income 71

Figure 2.24. The corporate income tax regime incentivises high income earners to incorporate while taxation of dividends is low 72

Figure 2.25. Property taxation in Estonia remains low 74

Figure 3.1. Despite progress Estonia remains among the most carbon-intensive 82

Figure 3.2. Carbon prices are above the OECD average 83

Figure 3.3. The share of renewables in energy generation is rising 85

Figure 3.4. Estonia's car fleet is old and polluting 88

Figure 3.5. Higher energy prices hit disproportionately low-income households 89

Figure 3.6. Increased felling reduced carbon sequestration capacity in Estonia 90

Figure 3.7. Estonia faces a moderate risk of flooding 92

Figure 3.8. Natural catastrophe losses in Estonia have been low 93

Figure 3.9. Adaptation investments are low 94

Figure 3.10. Estonian municipalities lack financial and administrative capacity for adaptation 98

Figure 4.1. Digital investment growth has been strong 104

Figure 4.2. Productivity growth took a hit during the recession 105

Figure 4.3. Estonia's overall performance in the area of AI is at OECD average 106

Figure 4.4. AI adoption in Estonian firms is above the EU average 107

Figure 4.5. AI adoption is higher in Estonia in knowledge-intensive sectors 108

Figure 4.6. Estonian enterprises employ AI primarily for administration and marketing 109

Figure 4.7. Estonian firms show relatively strong integration of AI with cloud computing and data analytics 110

Figure 4.8. Text mining and natural language creation are the most adopted AI technologies 111

Figure 4.9. Current data centre capacity in Estonia is just above the OECD average 114

Figure 4.10. Share of fibre subscriptions is close to OECD average 115

Figure 4.11. Investment in AI has been strong 115

Figure 4.12. Use of AI is high and talent concentration in the workforce is rapidly rising 117

Figure 4.13. Estonia maintains a positive but relatively low net inflow of AI talents 118

Figure 4.14. The number of graduates in ICT courses is growing 120

Figure 4.15. AI-related publications are above the OECD average 121

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Political context and policy priorities 18

Box 1.2. Inflation measurement issues in Estonia 21

Box 1.3. Scaling up Estonia's defence capabilities 33

Box 1.4. Modelling the impact of climate transition on public finances in Estonia 36

Box 2.1. How can public sector efficiency be assessed? 46

Box 2.2. Stocktaking of policy achievements by the national statistical office 63

Box 2.3. Personal income tax 71

Box 2.4. Impact of distributed profits tax in Estonia 72

Box 3.1. Restoring LULUCF as net carbon sinks: lessons from Finland and New Zealand 90

Box 3.2. Estonia's Climate Change Adaptation Plan measures and impact so far 95

Box 3.3. A new climate governance system to steer Estonia's transition and adaptation 97

Box 4.1. Estonia's policy framework for AI development and use 111

Box 4.2. The manufacturing sector remains a key focus of business support programmes 116

Box 4.3. Attracting and retaining tech companies and talent 117

Box 4.4. AI Leap 2025 program 119

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