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Title page 1

Contents 6

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 11

FOREWORD 12

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14

ABBREVIATIONS 16

CHAPTER 1. GLOBAL OUTLOOK 17

Summary 18

Global context 28

Global trade 28

Commodity markets 29

Global inflation 30

Global financial developments 31

Major economies: Recent developments and outlook 32

Advanced economies 32

China 34

Emerging market and developing economies 34

Recent developments 34

EMDE outlook 35

LICs outlook 36

Per capita income growth 44

Global outlook and risks 45

Risks to the outlook 45

Policy challenges 49

Key global challenges 49

EMDE monetary and financial policy challenges 51

EMDE fiscal policy challenges 51

EMDE structural policy challenges 53

References 56

CHAPTER 2. REGIONAL OUTLOOKS 62

Recent developments 63

Outlook 64

Risks 66

East Asia and Pacific 73

Recent developments 73

Outlook 73

Europe and Central Asia 76

Recent developments 76

Outlook 76

Latin America and the Caribbean 80

Recent developments 80

Outlook 80

Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 84

Recent developments 84

Outlook 84

South Asia 88

Recent developments 88

Outlook 88

Sub-Saharan Africa 91

Recent developments 91

Outlook 91

References 95

CHAPTER 3. A RISING CHALLENGES: Sovereign Debt Levels and Interest Rates in EMDEs 98

Introduction 99

Key trends in EMDE government debt and interest rates 102

Impact of EMDE government debt on interest rates 103

Non-linear relationship between debt and interest rates 104

Contribution of rising government debt to EMDE interest rates 110

Potential fiscal savings from debt reduction 111

The role of advanced economy debt and bond yields 111

Role of vulnerabilities in the impact of EMDE debt on interest rates 112

History of past defaults 112

Credit ratings and frontier market status 113

Global financing environment 114

Liquidity and rollover risk 114

Inflation 114

Governance and institutional quality 114

Country illustrations of debt-interest rate dynamics 115

Policy implications 117

ANNEX 3.1. Methodology and data 120

ANNEX 3.2. Alternative models 122

References 129

CHAPTER 4. NAVIGATING VOLATILITY: Fiscal Policy and Commodity Price Swings 133

Introduction 134

Fiscal indicators in commodity exporters since 2000 138

Fiscal revenues 139

Fiscal expenditure and balances 140

Public debt 141

Fiscal policy volatility in commodity exporters 142

Fiscal procyclicality in commodity exporters 144

Measuring fiscal procyclicality 144

Output cycles versus commodity price movements 145

Dynamic fiscal response to commodity price shocks 145

Fiscal management over commodity price cycles 147

Policy frameworks for fiscal management 149

Evolution of fiscal policy frameworks 149

Effectiveness of policy frameworks in mitigating the impact of commodity price shocks 151

Effectiveness of policy frameworks over commodity price cycles 153

Policy priorities 155

Need for policy action 155

Bolstering fiscal policy frameworks 156

Strengthening non-resource revenue mobilization 162

Promoting economic diversification 162

ANNEX 4.1. Fiscal policy volatility 165

ANNEX 4.2. Local projections 165

ANNEX 4.3. Commodity price cycles 167

References 168

STATISTICAL APPENDIX 173

DATA AND FORECAST CONVENTIONS 178

SELECTED TOPICS 179

Tables 10

TABLE 1.1. Real GDP 19

TABLE 1.2. Emerging market and developing economies 55

TABLE 2.1. East Asia and Pacific forecast summary 75

TABLE 2.2. East Asia and Pacific economy forecasts 75

TABLE 2.3. Europe and Central Asia forecast summary 78

TABLE 2.4. Europe and Central Asia economy forecasts 79

TABLE 2.5. Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary 82

TABLE 2.6. Latin America and the Caribbean economy forecasts 83

TABLE 2.7. Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan forecast summary 86

TABLE 2.8. Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan economy forecasts 87

TABLE 2.9. South Asia forecast summary 90

TABLE 2.10. South Asia economy forecasts 90

TABLE 2.11. Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary 93

TABLE 2.12. Sub-Saharan Africa economy forecasts 94

TABLE 3.1. Regressions of interest rates 124

TABLE 4.1. Economies in the sample 164

Figures 8

FIGURE 1.1. Global economic prospects 20

FIGURE 1.2. Global risks and policy challenges 21

FIGURE 1.3. Global trade 29

FIGURE 1.4. Commodity markets 30

FIGURE 1.5. Global inflation and financial developments 31

FIGURE 1.6. Major economies: Recent developments and outlook 33

FIGURE 1.7. Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies 35

FIGURE 1.8. Outlook for emerging market and developing economies 44

FIGURE 1.9. Per capita income growth 45

FIGURE 1.10. Risks to the outlook 47

FIGURE 1.11. Global policy challenges 50

FIGURE 1.12. EMDE monetary and fiscal policy challenges 52

FIGURE 1.13. EMDE structural policy challenges 54

FIGURE 2.1. Recent developments and outlook 65

FIGURE 2.2. Risks 66

FIGURE 2.3. EAP: Outlook 74

FIGURE 2.4. ECA: Recent developments and outlook 77

FIGURE 2.5. LAC: Recent developments and outlook 81

FIGURE 2.6. MNA: Outlook 85

FIGURE 2.7. SAR: Outlook 89

FIGURE 2.8. SSA: Recent developments and outlook 92

FIGURE 3.1. Implications of rising government debt in EMDEs 100

FIGURE 3.2. Key trends in EMDE government debt and interest rates 103

FIGURE 3.3. Relationship between EMDE government debt and interest rates 104

FIGURE 3.4. Contribution of rising government debt to EMDE interest rates 110

FIGURE 3.5. Potential fiscal savings from lowering debt 111

FIGURE 3.6. Role of advanced economy debt 112

FIGURE 3.7. Role of vulnerabilities 113

FIGURE 3.8. Role of vulnerabilities (cont'd) 114

FIGURE 3.9. Country illustrations 115

FIGURE 3.10. Policy implications 117

FIGURE 4.1. Commodity prices and EMDE commodity dependence 135

FIGURE 4.2. Commodity prices, fiscal revenues, and public debt sustainability 136

FIGURE 4.3. Fiscal revenues 139

FIGURE 4.4. Fiscal expenditures and fiscal balances 141

FIGURE 4.5. Public debt and interest payments 142

FIGURE 4.6. Fiscal policy volatility and procyclicality 143

FIGURE 4.7. Responses of revenue and primary spending to commodity price shocks 146

FIGURE 4.8. Fiscal positions over commodity price cycles 148

FIGURE 4.9. Fiscal rules, SWFs, and fiscal councils 150

FIGURE 4.10. Role of fiscal rules, SWFs, and institutions during commodity price shocks 152

FIGURE 4.11. Primary expenditure growth during commodity booms and slumps 154

FIGURE 4.12. Characteristics of fiscal rules in EMDEs 157

FIGURE 4.13. Fiscal frameworks, revenue dependence, and structural vulnerabilities 160

Boxes 8

BOX 1.1. How much will AI affect global growth? 23

BOX 1.2. Unlocking private investment 37

BOX 2.1. Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook 68

BOX 3.1. The costs of hidden debt 106

Box Tables 10

TABLE B2.1.1. Low-income country forecasts 71

Box Figures 8

FIGURE B1.1.1. AI, productivity, and potential growth 24

FIGURE B1.1.2. An enabling environment for AI 26

FIGURE B1.2.1. Investment trends in EMDEs 38

FIGURE B1.2.2. Constraints to private investment 41

FIGURE B1.2.3. Policies to promote private investment 42

FIGURE B2.1.1. LICs: Recent developments 69

FIGURE B2.1.2. LICs: Outlook and risks 70

FIGURE B3.1.1. Hidden debt revelation and market responses 107

Annex Tables 10

TABLE A3.1. Data 125

TABLE A3.2. Countries and sample used in regressions 126

TABLE A3.3. Threshold models of interest rates based on quarterly data 127

TABLE A3.4. Regressions using forecast data 128

Annex Figures 10

FIGURE A4.2.1. Fiscal impacts of asymmetric commodity price shocks 166

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알라딘제공
Delve into global economic trends with a semiannual report that scrutinizes evolving forces and emerging market challenges. Focusing on developing nations, it presents keen analysis and timely insights into pressing policy issues, revealing the dynamic interplay that shapes today’s global economy.

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