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동의어 포함
Title page 1
Contents 5
Foreword 4
Basic statistics of Latvia, 2025 8
Executive summary 9
1. Strengthening fiscal sustainability and economic growth 16
1.1. The economy is gaining momentum, but structural challenges remain 17
1.1.1. Rising domestic demand will lead the recovery 20
1.1.2. Structural reforms are key to support economic growth and reduce inequality 22
1.2. Addressing financial vulnerabilities and improving access to finance 25
1.2.1. Financial market risks remain contained 25
1.2.2. Improving access to finance for firms 27
1.3. Strengthening public finances 31
1.3.1. Addressing rising spending pressures is key to ensure debt sustainability 31
1.3.2. There is some room to further raise tax revenue and make the tax system more efficient 34
1.3.3. Improving the fiscal framework and raising spending efficiency 37
1.3.4. Reducing old-age poverty 39
1.3.5. Fighting tax evasion, corruption and money laundering 41
References 47
2. Strengthening climate change mitigation and adaption policies 51
2.1. Stronger efforts are needed to reach climate policy targets 52
2.2. Expanding renewables and continuing to modernise the electricity grid 54
2.3. Raising the attractiveness of public transport and accelerating electrification 56
2.4. Reducing carbon emissions in the building sector 57
2.5. Reducing GHG emissions in the LULUCF and the agricultural sector 59
2.6. Protecting social cohesion and helping workers move jobs during the green transition 61
2.7. Improving climate adaptation policies 64
References 68
3. Improving health outcomes 71
3.1. Health outcomes remain weak despite improvements 72
3.2. Improving financing and access to healthcare 72
3.3. Increasing spending efficiency in the healthcare system 76
3.4. Strengthening preventive measures to improve health outcomes 79
References 83
4. Improving public administration capacity to support fiscal sustainability and economic growth 85
4.1. Modernising the public administration and continuing to reduce the administrative burden 86
4.2. Improving the organisation of the public sector to strengthen administrative capacity and raise spending efficiency 87
4.2.1. Improving employment policies in the public administration 90
4.2.2. Improving the governance of state-owned enterprises 94
4.3. Leveraging digitalisation to reduce the administrative burden, strengthen policy impact evaluation and improve spending efficiency 96
4.3.1. Raising the quality of regulations through better ex-ante impact assessment 100
4.3.2. Improving regulatory enforcement 102
4.3.3. Strengthening ex-post regulatory impact assessment 103
4.4. Improving public procurement and infrastructure planning procedures 105
4.4.1. Improving public investment management 111
4.5. Improving the administrative and financial capacity of local governments 114
4.5.1. Improving administrative capacities at the local level 115
4.5.2. Improving the public finances of municipalities 117
References 124
Figure 1. The pace of economic convergence has slowed 10
Figure 2. Better health outcomes would allow more experienced workers to work longer 12
Figure 3. There is room to improve spending efficiency in the public administration 13
Figure 1.1. Energy prices and inflation have declined until recently, and nominal wages have grown strongly 17
Figure 1.2. Country risk premia have declined 18
Figure 1.3. EU countries are the major destination of Latvian exports 19
Figure 1.4. Population ageing and decline will further exacerbate labour shortages 20
Figure 1.5. Unit labour costs have increased, weighing on export performance 20
Figure 1.6. The pace of economic convergence has slowed 23
Figure 1.7. Inequality and poverty remain high 24
Figure 1.8. The gender wage gap remains high 25
Figure 1.9. Vulnerabilities related to corporate debt remain contained and banks are profitable 26
Figure 1.10. Housing market-related risks have increased 27
Figure 1.11. Bank lending remains weak despite rising deposits 28
Figure 1.12. Non-bank sources of corporate finance are limited 30
Figure 1.13. Fiscal adjustments and structural reforms are key for debt sustainability 33
Figure 1.14. The tax structure is skewed towards labour and consumption taxes 35
Figure 1.15. The labour tax wedge is high compared to other countries, particularly for low-wage earners 36
Figure 1.16. There is room to raise revenues from corporate income taxes 37
Figure 1.17. Fiscal Discipline Council's analytical capacity and communications impact are weak 38
Figure 1.18. Old age poverty is high and future pension replacement rates are low 40
Figure 1.19. The fight against corruption and money laundering has been strengthened 44
Figure 2.1. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions need to accelerate 52
Figure 2.2. There is scope to further strengthen carbon pricing 54
Figure 2.3. The share of wind and solar in electricity generation has increased 55
Figure 2.4. The use of public transport has declined 57
Figure 2.5. Housing investment has been much lower than in peer countries 58
Figure 2.6. The LULUCF sector has become a large GHG net emitter 60
Figure 2.7. Distributional effects of different climate policy scenarios reaching EU Fit For 55 targets 62
Figure 2.8. More ambitious emission reduction would lead to a reallocation of labour across economic sectors 64
Figure 2.9. Spending for active labour market policies is low 64
Figure 2.10. Exposure to risk of river flooding is high 65
Figure 3.1. Health outcomes are weak 72
Figure 3.2. Public spending on health remains low 73
Figure 3.3. Out-of-pocket payments constitute a large share of health expenditure 74
Figure 3.4. Inequalities in health outcomes are large 74
Figure 3.5. The number of practicing doctors and nurses is very low 75
Figure 3.6. There is scope to raise efficiency in the health system 76
Figure 3.7. Spending on outpatient care and medical goods is relatively high 77
Figure 3.8. The share of generic drugs is relatively high 79
Figure 3.9. Mortality due to preventable diseases is very high 80
Figure 3.10. Alcohol consumption is very high 80
Figure 4.1. Strengthening the effectiveness of the public sector remains a key challenge 86
Figure 4.2. EU-funded investments represent a significant share of public investments 87
Figure 4.3. The cost of delivering public goods and services is relatively high 88
Figure 4.4. Public sector wages are relatively low for skilled professionals and managers 91
Figure 4.5. The public sector wage premium between comparable jobs is negative for higher pay grades 92
Figure 4.6. Share of bonuses and allowances in total wage strongly varies across ministries 93
Figure 4.7. Digital public services delivery could better anticipate user needs 96
Figure 4.8. The administrative burden for businesses could be reduced further 97
Figure 4.9. The coverage and methodology of regulatory impact assessments remain weak 101
Figure 4.10. Methodologies for ex-post evaluation of laws and regulations remain weak 104
Figure 4.11. Public procurement spending is significant 105
Figure 4.12. The E-procurement system could be further strengthened 108
Figure 4.13. Centralised purchasing remains limited, particularly for smaller procurements 109
Figure 4.14. Governance of infrastructure needs to improve 111
Figure 4.15. The absorption of EU cohesion policy funds should improve 114
Figure 4.16. Municipalities employ most of the public workforce but offer lower wages 115
Figure 4.17. State transfers help reduce disparities in fiscal capacity of municipalities 118
Figure 4.18. Revenue from recurrent taxes in immovable property is low 121
Boxes 7
Box 2.1. Simulating the economic and distributional effects of different climate policy scenarios for Latvia 63
Box 4.1. Realising efficiency gains by horizontal integration of public service delivery 89
Box 4.2. The remuneration structure of the public administration 92
Box 4.3. Data sharing systems in Lithuania, Estonia, Spain and Japan 99
Box 4.4. Public procurement regulation in Latvia 107
Box 4.5. Rail Baltica: Cost overruns, delays and shifts in the delivery model 113
Box 4.6. The 2021 administrative-territorial reform 115
Box 4.7. Intergovernmental fiscal relations 120
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