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https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/ukraine-s-strategic-response-to-the-displacement-crisis_9b773da4-en.html
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Title page 1
Contents 6
Foreword 4
Acknowledgements 5
Abbreviations and acronyms 10
Executive summary 12
1. Assessment and recommendations 14
Assessment of the situation 15
Assessment and recommendations: Governance 20
Assessment and recommendations: Policy action 27
Summary of the recommendations 38
References 42
Notes 42
2. Ukrainian migration and displacement crisis in numbers 43
Ukraine's migration experience and mobility patterns before 2022 44
Mass displacement induced by Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine 59
References 69
Annex 2.A. Supplementary tables and figures 74
Notes 75
3. Relevant legal, institutional and policy landscape in Ukraine 76
Legal frameworks 77
Institutional responsibilities and key actors 82
Policy measures since 2022 93
Strategic frameworks 112
References 117
Annex 3.A. Bilateral agreements on mutual recognition of educational documents 121
Annex 3.B. Examples of return support measures open to Ukrainians 122
Notes 124
4. Understanding intentions to return and actual returns: Space for further policy action 126
Intentions to return are shaped by a complex set of factors 127
Do intentions to return truly diminish over time? 132
From intention to decision: What factors actually make individuals return? 137
What can be learnt from returns that already took place? 143
How are returnees doing compared to the non-displaced population and those still displaced? 153
Anticipating returns: How many more Ukrainians might come back from abroad? 169
References 183
Annex 4.A. Data description 187
Annex 4.B. Supplementary tables and figures 189
Annex 4.C. Overview of selected surveys on specific factors influencing return decisions 192
Notes 208
5. International practices in return, reintegration, and diaspora engagement 210
How can international experiences serve Ukraine? 211
International standards, frameworks and principles relevant to voluntary return and reintegration of displaced persons 212
Measures and policies to support the return and reintegration of displaced persons 215
Measures and policies for working with the diaspora communities 255
References 271
Annex 5.A. Dual residency and transitional towns in Japan 286
Annex 5.B. Go-and-see and come-and-tell visits in Somalia and Syria 288
Annex 5.C. Regional Housing Programme in the Western Balkans 291
Annex 5.D. PROSPECTS Programme in the Middle East and East Africa region 294
Annex 5.E. Diaspora bonds in India, Israel, and Nigeria 299
Annex 5.F. Diaspora returns in Israel 302
Glossary 305
Figure 2.1. First residence permits granted to Ukrainian citizens in the EU, by reasons, 2010-2021 46
Figure 2.2. Acquisitions of host country nationality by Ukraine-born immigrants, OECD total, 2000-2021 48
Figure 2.3. Acquisitions of nationality by Ukraine-born immigrants, by country, total over 2000-2021 49
Figure 2.4. Asylum requests from Ukrainian citizens in OECD countries, 2000-2021 50
Figure 2.5. Asylum requests from Ukrainian citizens, by country, total over 2000-2021 51
Figure 2.6. Total number of Ukraine-born immigrants in selected OECD countries, 2000, 2010, 2020/21 52
Figure 2.7. Share of women among Ukraine-born immigrants in selected OECD countries, 2020/21 54
Figure 2.8. Age groups of Ukraine-born immigrants persons in selected OECD countries, 2020/21 55
Figure 2.9. Education levels of Ukraine-born immigrants in selected OECD countries, 2020/21 56
Figure 2.10. Labour force status of Ukraine-born immigrants aged 15+ in OECD countries, 2020/21 56
Figure 2.11. Duration of stay of Ukraine-born immigrants in OECD countries, 2020/21 57
Figure 2.12. Total number of IDPs prior to Russia's full-scale invasion, 2015-2022 58
Figure 2.13. Distribution of IDPs across the oblasts of Ukraine prior to Russia's full-scale invasion, 1 January 2022 58
Figure 2.14. Evolution of the total number of externally displaced Ukrainians in OECD countries 61
Figure 2.15. Number of externally displaced Ukrainians recorded in OECD countries, June 2025 62
Figure 2.16. Number of applications for asylum by Ukrainian citizens in the EU+ countries 63
Figure 2.17. Stocks of IDPs since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine 65
Figure 2.18. Evolution of the number of IDPs, by oblast 66
Figure 2.19. Estimated number of returnees, April 2022-April 2025 68
Figure 2.20. Share of Ukrainians displaced in Europe who visited Ukraine since their displacement 69
Figure 4.1. The evolution of individual intentions to stay 133
Figure 4.2. The evolution of intentions to stay in a host country by arrival cohort; percentage of individuals 135
Figure 4.3. Factors influencing individual return decision by level 138
Figure 4.4. Reasons for moving back, per cent of Ukrainian returnees, July-August 2024 140
Figure 4.5. Days since return, for returnees by different location of displacement, summer 2024 144
Figure 4.6. Estimated survival probabilities (the probabilities of remaining displaced) for groups with different characteristics, varying one... 148
Figure 4.7. Estimated survival probabilities (the probabilities of remaining displaced) for individual profiles most prone to returning and... 152
Figure 4.8. Ownership and occupancy status of IDPs, returnees and non-displaced population, spring 2024 154
Figure 4.9. Conditions of dwelling of IDPs, returnees and non-displaced population, spring 2024 155
Figure 4.10. Legally recognised documents for current housing arrangement among returnees, IDPs, and non-displaced population, spring 2024 156
Figure 4.11. To what extent do the following factors limit your ability to stay in your current home as long as you wish? spring 2024 157
Figure 4.12. Application to the eRecovery (eVidnovlennya) programme, by IDPs, returnees and non-displaced population, spring 2024 158
Figure 4.13. Probability of employment, for returnees and IDPs, as compared to non-displaced population, summer 2024 159
Figure 4.14. Status in employment of returnees, non-displaced population, and IDPs, summer 2024 162
Figure 4.15. Type of employment of IDPs, returnees and non-displaced population, summer 2024 163
Figure 4.16. Distributions and medians of household monthly income for IDPs, returnees and non-displaced population, summer 2024, UAH 165
Figure 4.17. Intentions to leave the current location beyond the next three months 167
Figure 4.18. Estimated scale of returns to Ukraine from abroad by 2029 across three scenarios 172
Figure 4.19. Projected monthly and cumulative returns to Ukraine under alternative post-war scenarios 173
Figure 4.20. Age and gender profiles of returnees and refugees under alternative post-war scenarios 174
Figure 4.21. Household profiles of returnees and refugees under alternative post-war scenarios 175
Figure 4.22. Household employment outcomes of returnees and refugees under alternative post-war scenarios 176
Figure 4.23. Individual employment outcomes of returnees and refugees under alternative post-war scenarios 176
Figure 4.24. Projected returns to Ukraine over time by macro-region under alternative post-war scenarios 178
Figure 4.25. Distribution of projected returns over time by macro-region under alternative post-war scenarios 179
Figure 4.26. Projected returns to Ukraine over time by property status under alternative post-war scenarios 180
Figure 4.27. Distribution of projected returns over time by property status under alternative post-war scenarios 180
Figure 4.28. Projected returns over time by household profile under alternative post-war scenarios 181
Figure 4.29. Distribution of projected returns over time by household profile under alternative post-war scenarios 181
Figure 4.30. Distribution of returnees by host country under alternative post-war scenarios 182
Figure 5.1. Number of housing units built through the Regional Housing Programme (2012-2023) 224
Figure 5.2. Results of the first phase of the PROSPECTS programme (2019-2024) 236
Boxes 24
Box 1.1. Examples of statistics and indicators to inform policy on IDPs 24
Box 1.2. Examples of statistics and indicators to inform return and reintegration policy 25
Box 2.1. Understanding some of the oldest Ukrainian diaspora communities 53
Box 2.2. Terminology used to describe displacement 60
Box 2.3. What is the definition of return? 67
Box 3.1. Who belongs to the Ukrainian diaspora? 80
Box 3.2. What are the definitions of "integration" and "reintegration"? 81
Box 3.3. Examples of Ukrainian global community organisations and associations 91
Box 3.4. Selected national programmes of financial and housing assistance for IDPs 94
Box 3.5. Selected national programmes to support employment of IDPs 96
Box 3.6. Examples of donor- and IO-backed programmes and initiatives aimed at enhancing the skills and capabilities of IDPs 98
Box 3.7. Skills Alliance for Ukraine 107
Box 3.8. Selected initiatives by civil society in host countries that align with a dual intent approach 109
Box 4.1. Do intentions to stay differ for individuals with a longer period of displacement and for those arriving at a later date? 136
Box 4.2. What factors enable returns? Migration theory and evidence from other contexts 138
Box 4.3. What factors enable the return of Ukrainians displaced by the war of aggression? 140
Box 4.4. Applying duration analysis to returns from internal displacement 145
Box 4.5. Understanding employment gaps across individuals with different displacement status 160
Box 4.6. Understanding gaps in employment type across individuals with different displacement status 163
Box 4.7. Understanding household income gaps across individuals with different displacement status 166
Box 4.8. Applying agent-based modelling (ABM) to returns from external displacement 170
Box 5.1. Definition of return and typology of returns 212
Box 5.2. Demining efforts in Sri Lanka to promote IDP returns 217
Box 5.3. Transitioning from collective centres to sustainable social housing in Bosnia and Herzegovina 224
Box 5.4. When short-term support becomes long-term instability: Lessons from post-Katrina New Orleans 226
Box 5.5. The Pinheiro Principles 228
Box 5.6. Collaborative dispute resolution in Uganda's West Nile region 231
Box 5.7. Transitional communities in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster in Japan 232
Box 5.8. Fostering female participation in green entrepreneurship in Türkiye: The SEECO and SOGREEN projects 240
Box 5.9. Monitoring returns and reintegration in Kosovo 250
Box 5.10. Supporting the return of highly skilled diaspora to Shenzhen: Peacock Talent Programme 263
Annex Figure 2.A.1. First residence permits issued to Ukrainian citizens in the EU countries, by reasons, 2010-2021 74
Annex Figure 4.B.1. Intentions to stay in the current place of living depending on occupancy status 189
Annex Figure 4.B.2. Intentions to stay in the current place of living depending on conditions of dwelling 190
Annex Figure 4.B.3. Intentions to stay in the current place of living depending on conditions of dwelling 191
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