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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Basic statistics of Romania, 2024 8

Executive summary 9

1. Macroeconomic developments and policy challenges 18

1.1. Economic activity has moderated 19

1.1.1. Romania's economy slowed amid weaker external demand and high domestic policy uncertainty 19

1.1.2. Domestic factors contribute to higher inflation 19

1.1.3. Romania has a persistent current account deficit 20

1.1.4. The labour market is softening alongside structural challenges 21

1.1.5. Growth is set to remain moderate amid fiscal consolidation 22

1.2. While the financial system has proven resilient, monetary policy should address persistently high inflation 23

1.2.1. Fiscal policy complicates the conduct of monetary policy 23

1.2.2. Private sector borrowing has picked up, but levels of indebtedness remain low 25

1.2.3. The financial sector appears sound, but pockets of vulnerabilities exist 27

1.3. Sustained efforts are needed to preserve fiscal sustainability 28

1.4. Improving spending quality amid rising pressures 33

1.4.1. Strengthening spending efficiency 35

1.4.2. Demographic change and new spending needs require fiscal space 37

1.5. Enhancing the tax structure to boost growth and strengthen revenues 40

1.5.1. Making the taxation system more efficient and fairer 41

1.5.2. Strengthening revenue mobilisation capacity 46

1.6. Strengthening the budget framework 48

References 51

2. Promoting higher workforce participation and healthier working lives 54

2.1. Romania's workforce is shrinking and becoming older 55

2.2. Raising labour force participation 56

2.2.1. Lowering the tax and contribution burden on low-income workers 56

2.2.2. Addressing the high share of NEETs 57

2.2.3. Supporting female employment 61

2.2.4. Enhancing the employability of older workers 64

2.3. Strengthening health outcomes 65

2.3.1. Improving prevention and healthcare quality 66

2.3.2. Addressing gaps in access to healthcare 68

2.4. Tapping potential from return migration and labour migration 70

2.4.1. Facilitating the return of Romania's diaspora and their re-integration 70

2.4.2. Improving the management of labour immigration 71

References 75

3. Enhancing resilience to climate risks 80

3.1. Adaptation and mitigation present considerable challenges 81

3.1.1. Climate change increases the frequency of climate-related disasters 81

3.1.2. Romania is particularly exposed to droughts, heatwaves and river flooding 82

3.1.3. Mitigation challenges remain significant 84

3.2. Policy efforts to adapt to climate risks need to be stepped up 86

3.2.1. Reducing exposure to flooding and sea-level rise 88

3.2.2. Coping with higher temperatures and more frequent droughts 92

References 98

4. Strengthening Romania's competitiveness 102

4.1. Romania's income convergence is slowing and better reaping the benefits of international integration is key 103

4.1.1. Productivity growth has slowed after strong catch-up 103

4.1.2. Integration into global markets has deepened but domestic firms are underrepresented 105

4.1.3. Romania has a mid-level position in global value chains 108

4.1.4. Foreign investment has been an important driver of catch-up growth 110

4.2. Enhancing domestic firms' innovative capacities and fostering their international integration 112

4.2.1. Strengthening R&D investment to foster innovation 112

4.2.2. Enabling the adoption of new technologies 114

4.2.3. Expanding access to finance 116

4.2.4. Further developing linkages between foreign and domestic firms 118

4.3. Promoting human capital and skills 119

4.3.1. Improving the performance of general education 120

4.3.2. Strengthening vocational training and access to higher education 122

4.3.3. Improving lifelong learning and skill upgrading 124

4.4. Improving the business environment and market efficiency 125

4.4.1. Further simplifying the regulatory system 126

4.4.2. Strengthening the functioning of the insolvency framework 128

4.4.3. Fostering competition and business growth 129

4.5. Fostering transport infrastructure development 130

4.5.1. Improving the road network and road pricing 131

4.5.2. Promoting alternative transport modes and infrastructure management 132

4.6. Further strengthening the anti-corruption framework 133

References 138

Tables 7

Table 1. Necessary fiscal consolidation is weighing on near-term growth prospects 11

Table 1.1. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 23

Table 1.2. Events that could lead to major changes in the outlook 23

Table 1.3. Illustrative fiscal impact of recommended reform package 31

Table 1.4. Estimated impacts on potential GDP levels 32

Table 1.5. Past OECD fiscal recommendations and actions taken on fiscal sustainability, pension and tax reforms 49

Table 1.6. Main findings and recommendations 50

Table 2.1. Past recommendations on strengthening female workforce participation 64

Table 2.2. Policy recommendations 74

Table 3.1. Past OECD recommendations and actions taken on decarbonising the economy 86

Table 3.2. Main findings and recommendations 97

Table 4.1. Past OECD recommendations and actions taken on financial intermediation 118

Table 4.2. Past OECD recommendations and actions taken on the business environment 130

Table 4.3. Past OECD recommendations and actions taken on transport infrastructure 132

Table 4.4. Main findings and recommendations 137

Figures 6

Figure 1. Income convergence with OECD countries has been strong 10

Figure 2. Inactivity rates of young people are high 12

Figure 3. Romania is strongly exposed to global warming and extreme weather events from climate change 13

Figure 4. Driving continued progress in the business environment 14

Figure 1.1. GDP growth has slowed 19

Figure 1.2. Inflation remains elevated, wage growth has started to moderate from high rates 20

Figure 1.3. The trade balance has deteriorated since the mid-2010s 21

Figure 1.4. Labour costs have risen at a faster pace than productivity 22

Figure 1.5. Monetary policy has been on hold since mid-2024 24

Figure 1.6. Lending rates have declined more significantly for euro-denominated loans and borrowing in euro remains elevated among corporates 25

Figure 1.7. Debt levels of households and corporates are very low 26

Figure 1.8. Bank's balance sheets appear sound 27

Figure 1.9. The budget deficit has deteriorated and debt has increased 29

Figure 1.10. Restoring fiscal sustainability requires stronger consolidation efforts 29

Figure 1.11. Financing costs have increased moderately since 2024 30

Figure 1.12. Government spending has increased rapidly while revenue has stagnated 33

Figure 1.13. Spending on social protection, health, and education is below the OECD average 34

Figure 1.14. Spending on health and early childhood education is relatively low 38

Figure 1.15. The levels of social assistance and unemployment benefits are low 39

Figure 1.16. Tax revenues are relatively low and they have declined over the past two decades 41

Figure 1.17. Property taxes remain underused 43

Figure 1.18. The tax wedge is relatively high for low earners 45

Figure 1.19. VAT compliance remains a large challenge 46

Figure 1.20. Undeclared work accounts for a high share of gross value added 47

Figure 2.1. Romania is undergoing a large demographic shift 55

Figure 2.2. Emigration has been the main driver of Romania's population decline until recently 56

Figure 2.3. Employment rates for specific groups 58

Figure 2.4. Employment rates in Romania remain below CEE peers across all age groups 58

Figure 2.5. The shares of NEETs and early leavers from education and training are high 59

Figure 2.6. Employment rates by age group and gender gap in employment 61

Figure 2.7. Spending on early childhood education is low 62

Figure 2.8. Employment rates of older workers in Romania are low 65

Figure 2.9. Behavioural risk factors associated with smoking and alcohol use are high 67

Figure 2.10. Avoidable death in Romania is high 67

Figure 2.11. Unmet medical needs are high for lower income people 69

Figure 2.12. Admission quotas have risen sharply, surpassing actual migrant inflows 72

Figure 3.1. Annual surface temperatures surge in Romania 81

Figure 3.2. Romania is strongly exposed to heatwaves and droughts 82

Figure 3.3. Flooding is also a major climate risk, and general risk exposure varies widely across regions 83

Figure 3.4. GHG emissions have been declining 84

Figure 3.5. Emission intensity of production and energy supply remains relatively high 84

Figure 3.6. Flood insurance covers only a small share of economic losses, yet claims are rising 91

Figure 3.7. Water management is an important challenge 93

Figure 4.1. Productivity catch-up has been strong 104

Figure 4.2. Wages have outgrown productivity 105

Figure 4.3. Romania's trade exposure has increased 106

Figure 4.4. Export performance has been strong from the mid-2000s until recently 106

Figure 4.5. Manufactured goods to EU markets dominate exports 107

Figure 4.6. Exports are concentrated in large and foreign-controlled enterprises 108

Figure 4.7. Romania has an intermediate position in global value chains (GVC) 109

Figure 4.8. Romania attracts important FDI inflows 110

Figure 4.9. Foreign enterprises source a significant share of imports domestically 111

Figure 4.10. Domestic firms lack behind regional peers in innovative capacities 112

Figure 4.11. Research and development spending is very low 113

Figure 4.12. Digital technology adoption among firms is low 114

Figure 4.13. Fixed broadband access is very high 115

Figure 4.14. Bank financing is low and some firms are financially constrained 116

Figure 4.15. Educational attainment is low 119

Figure 4.16. Work-study mismatches are relatively widespread 120

Figure 4.17. Enrolment and learning outcomes are below the OECD average 121

Figure 4.18. Spending on education remains low 122

Figure 4.19. Adult learning remains underutilised 125

Figure 4.20. While firm entry is dynamic, firm exit and growth reveal structural weaknesses 126

Figure 4.21. Regulatory barriers can be further lowered 127

Figure 4.22. Administrative procedures can be further simplified 127

Figure 4.23. Romania's logistics performance is below the OECD average 131

Figure 4.24. Corruption perception remains high in Romania, but signs of progress are evident 134

Figure 4.25. Anti-money laundering 136

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Estimated impact of structural reforms recommended in the Survey on potential GDP and the fiscal balance 31

Box 1.2. Romania has adopted fiscal measures for 2025-2026 32

Box 2.1. Undeclared work remains a significant challenge 57

Box 2.2. Adequate pay and incentives for fathers can boost father's take up: Germany's case 63

Box 3.1. The Netherlands' 'Room for the River' programme: a model for climate-resilient flood management 89

Box 4.1. Size and competitiveness of Romania's ICT sector 108

Box 4.2. Linkages between foreign enterprises and domestic suppliers in Romania 111

Box 4.3. Ireland's success in expanding tertiary education attainment 124

출판사 책소개

알라딘제공
Romania has achieved impressive income and productivity convergence with OECD levels. Substantial EU funding continues to support investment and bolster long term growth. However, high inflation has eroded price competitiveness while significant fiscal deficits have raised concerns about debt sustainability. To achieve a more balanced growth, Romania needs to pursue fiscal consolidation by improving spending efficiency and broadening the tax base. Labour market participation remains low among low skilled youth, women, and older workers. Addressing these gaps calls for better education outcomes, more affordable childcare, and improved health to support longer working lives. Romania is also highly exposed to climate related risks. Adaptation efforts should accelerate, including better risk disclosure, stronger flood defences and broader insurance coverage. Finally, Romania has made strong progress in global trade integration. To deepen technology and knowledge spillovers and move further up the value chain, it will need to strengthen innovation, digital adoption, education quality, and business dynamism.

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