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https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/global-debt-report-2026_e9d80efd-en.html
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Title page 1
Contents 7
Foreword 4
Acknowledgements 5
Editorial 6
Abbreviations and acronyms 10
Executive summary 12
1. Sovereign borrowing outlook 16
Borrowing requirements and outstanding debt trends 18
Issuance by instruments and maturity 23
Outstanding debt trends 30
Secondary market developments and their impact on borrowing costs 37
Liquidity and volatility in bond and repo markets 46
References 48
Annex 1.A. Methods and sources 50
Annex 1.B. Sustainable bonds 55
Annex 1.C. EMDE marketable debt calculations 57
Annex 1.D. Single country yield curves 59
Notes 60
2. Corporate debt market outlook in a transforming world 62
Corporate debt markets in a transforming world 64
Headline developments in global corporate debt markets 65
Interpreting compressed credit spreads in an otherwise volatile environment 68
The role of debt markets in financing the AI expansion 81
Are debt markets becoming more like equity markets? 88
References 93
Annex 2.A. Outstanding amounts of corporate debt by country as of end-2025 96
Annex 2.B. Data collection and methodology 97
Annex 2.C. Credit spread decomposition 99
3. The investor base for government and corporate bond markets 107
The changing structure of global bond markets 109
The evolution of the investor base for government and corporate bonds 112
Drivers of changes in the investor base 125
Implications of the changing investor base on market dynamics and issuance strategies 134
Current challenges and outlook 138
References 142
Annex 3.A. Methodology 150
Annex 3.B. Motives and strategies for entities involved in sovereign and corporate bond markets 152
Notes 156
Figure 1.1. Gross borrowing requirements and outstanding debt levels 18
Figure 1.2. Refinancing requirements 19
Figure 1.3. Net borrowing requirements 20
Figure 1.4. General government debt of selected OECD countries 21
Figure 1.5. Changes related to 2025 funding plans and flexibility in primary market operations 23
Figure 1.6. Instrument composition of gross borrowing 24
Figure 1.7. Treasury bill issuance and refinancing requirements 24
Figure 1.8. Net borrowing by instrument as a share of GDP (2025e) 25
Figure 1.9. Characteristics of European Commission borrowing 26
Figure 1.10. Maturity of fixed-rate issuances 28
Figure 1.11. The use of syndications by selected OECD sovereign issuers 29
Figure 1.12. Instrument composition of outstanding debt 31
Figure 1.13. Treasury bill share of OECD debt stock 32
Figure 1.14. Average term to maturity of the outstanding debt stock 32
Figure 1.15. Debt-to-GDP ratio by country 33
Figure 1.16. Decomposition of the debt-to-GDP growth rate 34
Figure 1.17. Interest expenditures as a share of GDP 35
Figure 1.18. Trends in the issuance and stock of sovereign bonds in EMDEs 36
Figure 1.19. Borrowing costs and credit risk for EMDEs sovereigns 37
Figure 1.20. Medium-term expectations of fiscal balances and central bank rates 38
Figure 1.21. Issuance yields 39
Figure 1.22. Bond yields and term spreads 40
Figure 1.23. Bid-offer ratios at 10-year government bond auctions for G7 countries 41
Figure 1.24. Long-term bond valuation measures for OECD countries 43
Figure 1.25. Real yields and breakeven inflation 44
Figure 1.26. Yield to maturity at issuance and maturity profile of the outstanding debt stock 45
Figure 1.27. Liquidity conditions in local bond, repo, and foreign bond markets 47
Figure 1.28. Bond market volatility 47
Figure 2.1. Corporate bond spreads and economic uncertainty 64
Figure 2.2. Global corporate debt market activity 65
Figure 2.3. Global private credit assets under management by investment status 66
Figure 2.4. Net issuance of corporate bonds 66
Figure 2.5. Interest cost at issuance versus effective cost of outstanding bond debt, global 67
Figure 2.6. Outstanding global corporate bond debt by interest rate (coupon) 67
Figure 2.7. Refinancing requirements in the next five years by cost of outstanding debt 68
Figure 2.8. Corporate bond spreads and US monetary policy rate 69
Figure 2.9. Measures of corporate sector financial strength 70
Figure 2.10. Credit ratings and index duration 70
Figure 2.11. Benchmark yields and corporate bonds with negative spreads 71
Figure 2.12. Number of outstanding shares and bonds issued by non-financial S&P 500 companies 72
Figure 2.13. Trends in dealer positions, investment fund activity and hedge fund leverage 73
Figure 2.14. Stylised overview of the evolution of corporate bond market dynamics 74
Figure 2.15. Evolution of bid-ask spreads 75
Figure 2.16. Investment fund inflows versus net issuance, non-investment grade bonds 76
Figure 2.17. Technical factors affecting corporate credit spreads 77
Figure 2.18. Comparison between reference index, ETF proxy and micro data 78
Figure 2.19. Decomposition of corporate credit spreads 79
Figure 2.20. Spread components as a share of total spread 80
Figure 2.21. Internal financing capacity by industry 82
Figure 2.22. Hyperscalers' cash flow capacity and leverage 83
Figure 2.23. Corporate bond issuance by major hyperscalers 84
Figure 2.24. Hyperscalers' capital needs and bond market capacity 85
Figure 2.25. Private credit deals involving AI companies 86
Figure 2.26. Organisational structure of joint venture between Meta-Blue Owl Capital 87
Figure 2.27. Projected data centre investment (excl. cloud providers and AI developers), 2025-2030 88
Figure 2.28. Hyperscalers' share in global equity market capitalisation 89
Figure 2.29. Concentration in the non-financial corporate bond market 89
Figure 2.30. Investment grade credit spread sensitivity to changes in equity prices (hedge ratios) 91
Figure 2.31. Co-movements in corporate bond and equity prices 92
Figure 3.1. Stylised guide on the characteristics of each investor group 112
Figure 3.2. The investor base of major bond markets 113
Figure 3.3. The investor base of government and corporate bond markets 115
Figure 3.4. Government bond holdings as a share of total bond holdings, by investor and region 118
Figure 3.5. The investor base of major bond markets by region 119
Figure 3.6. Estimated investor base of German federal government bonds 120
Figure 3.7. Distribution of pension funds' assets across respondent countries 122
Figure 3.8. Total pension fund assets and debt security holdings 122
Figure 3.9. Distribution of pension funds' debt holdings by type 123
Figure 3.10. Distribution of pension funds' debt holdings by maturity brackets 123
Figure 3.11. Pension funds' foreign debt security investments in 2024 124
Figure 3.12. Pension funds' foreign currency denominated debt holdings 125
Figure 3.13. Distribution of pension fund holdings by credit rating category 125
Figure 3.14. Central banks' holdings of domestic government and corporate bonds 127
Figure 3.15. Hedge fund activity in sovereign bond secondary markets: notional percentage volumes traded on Tradeweb 129
Figure 3.16. Hedge funds' roles and holdings in OECD government bond markets 130
Figure 3.17. Dutch pension funds' holdings of debt securities, and 20+ year bonds 132
Figure 3.18. Projections for gilt holdings by DB pensions and the impact on the UK Government's debt issuance strategy 133
Figure 3.19. Government debt holders by price sensitivity 135
Figure 3.20. Issuance shares of 〉20-year US Treasuries and 〉20-year US IG Corporate bonds in response to changing long-term yields 138
Figure 3.21. Perception of geopolitical risk in the sovereign and corporate bond markets 139
Figure 3.22. US Treasury bill holdings by stablecoin issuers and projections for future demand 140
Figure 3.23. Geopolitical risk and changes in investor base for sovereign and corporate bonds 141
Boxes 21
Box 1.1. Data coverage of the Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 21
Box 1.2. The European Commission as an issuer on behalf of the European Union 26
Box 1.3. Syndications as a strategic complement to auctions 28
Box 1.4. Sovereign debt trends in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) 35
Box 1.5. The role of government bond auctions in supply absorption and price discovery 41
Box 2.1. Data and methodology for credit spread decomposition 77
Box 2.2. Private credit, the AI expansion and the blurred lines between different debt markets 86
Box 3.1. Empirical evidence on sectoral price sensitivities 116
Box 3.2. The investor base of German Government bonds 120
Box 3.3. The growing role of hedge funds in sovereign bond markets 129
Box 3.4. The shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pension systems 131
Box 3.5. Stablecoins: An emerging source of demand for short-term government debt? 140
Infographics 9
Infographic 1. Key facts and figures 15
Annex Figure 1.B.1. Global sustainable bond issuance by issuer 55
Annex Figure 1.B.2. Global sustainable bond issuance by region 56
Annex Figure 1.B.3. Global sustainable bond issuance by type 56
Annex Figure 1.D.1. Yield curves of selected OECD countries 59
Annex Figure 2.A.1. Outstanding amounts of corporate debt by country 96
출판사 책소개
Global debt markets face increasing pressures from sustained fiscal deficits, rising interest costs and investment needs, a structural decline in long term demand, and growing refinancing risks as the maturity of issuance shortens. Even so, public and private borrowing reached record levels in 2025 and markets show surface-level calm with improvements in liquidity, moderating volatility and compressing corporate credit spreads. Yet structural shifts, including the emergence of a new investor base, are transforming markets with new risks building, potentially challenging the current resilience. The third edition of the Global Debt Report analyses the latest trends in global sovereign and corporate debt markets up to the end of 2025, with a special focus on the shifting investor base, exploring the drivers and implications of these shifts.
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