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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Basic statistics of Slovenia, 2025 8

Executive summary 9

1. Strengthening growth and public finances 16

1.1. Economic growth has been resilient amid rising uncertainty 17

1.1.1. Domestic and external demand have weakened 17

1.1.2. Investment is recovering 19

1.1.3. The labour market is strong, but structural challenges remain 20

1.1.4. Inflation has increased 22

1.1.5. Growth is projected to strengthen, driven by domestic demand 24

1.2. Financial stability risks have increased but appear contained 26

1.3. Fiscal policy challenges need to be addressed 29

1.3.1. The fiscal stance is set to become more expansionary 29

1.3.2. Accelerating energy transition and adaptation to climate risks 34

1.3.3. Managing pension, health and long-term care spending 36

1.3.4. Increasing spending on active labour market policies could lift employment 38

1.3.5. Broadening the tax base and lowering the taxation of labour could help lift economic growth 39

1.4. The new anti-corruption strategy is key to addressing remaining challenges 40

References 45

2. Strengthening economic resilience through trade 50

2.1. Slovenia's highly open economy is vulnerable to external shocks 51

2.2. Addressing supply disruptions by building up strategic reserves 55

2.3. Improving trade integration and reducing barriers to capital flows 58

References 62

3. Seizing the economic opportunities of AI 64

3.1. AI adoption is growing, although challenges remain 65

3.2. Boosting AI adoption in the private sector 65

3.3. Advancing the uptake of AI in the public sector 71

3.4. Supporting innovation 73

3.5. Increasing access to computing infrastructure 74

3.6. Tackling AI-related skill shortages 77

References 82

4. Boosting investment to support growth 86

4.1. Raising business investment remains a key challenge 87

4.2. Deepening capital markets 90

4.2.1. Strengthening competition for financial products 92

4.2.2. Harmonising capital income taxation 94

4.2.3. Expanding the institutional investor base 95

4.2.4. Enhancing regional integration 100

4.2.5. Bolstering access to venture capital 102

4.3. Reducing regulatory burdens and fostering competition 104

4.3.1. Reducing the regulatory burden 104

4.3.2. Strengthening competition enforcement 108

4.3.3. Promoting competition in public procurement 109

4.3.4. Fostering competition in services 110

4.3.5. Towards a more competitive electricity market 112

References 114

Tables 7

Table 1. Economic growth is projected to strengthen 10

Table 1.1. Past recommendations on labour market policies 22

Table 1.2. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 25

Table 1.3. Events that could lead to major changes in the outlook 26

Table 1.4. Past recommendations to make the housing market more efficient and preserve financial stability 29

Table 1.5. Illustrative fiscal impact of tax and spending recommendations 33

Table 1.6. Illustrative impact of reform package on GDP per capita 33

Table 1.7. Past recommendations on climate mitigation and adaptation policies 35

Table 1.8. Past recommendations on fiscal and ageing policies 40

Table 1.9. Past recommendation on anti-corruption policies 43

Table 1.10. Policy recommendations to strengthen macroeconomic and fiscal management 44

Table 2.1. Policy recommendations 61

Table 3.1. Programmes supporting AI and digitalisation in Slovenian firms 69

Table 3.2. Policy recommendations 81

Table 4.1. Policy recommendations 113

Figures 6

Figure 1. Economic activity is resilient, but inflation remains elevated 10

Figure 2. Skill shortages, legal uncertainty and data protection concerns limit AI adoption 12

Figure 3. The capital market remains shallow 13

Figure 1.1. Economic growth has been resilient to adverse external shocks 17

Figure 1.2. Direct trade links with the United States have limited effects on the current account 18

Figure 1.3. The labour market remains tight, and labour costs are increasing 21

Figure 1.4. Household real incomes benefited from lower inflation and strong wage growth 23

Figure 1.5. Inflation needs to moderate further 24

Figure 1.6. The banking sector is profitable and well capitalised on aggregate 27

Figure 1.7. Debt levels of households and corporates are low 28

Figure 1.8. Housing prices have stabilised 28

Figure 1.9. Public debt remains elevated 30

Figure 1.10. Stylised debt scenarios underline the need for further fiscal stabilisation 32

Figure 1.11. Emission reduction needs to accelerate 34

Figure 1.12. Economic losses due to extreme weather events are high 35

Figure 1.13. Spending pressures after the pension reform call for further fiscal reforms 36

Figure 1.14. Participation in training remains low for older workers 39

Figure 1.15. Tax revenues are relatively high, relying strongly on taxation of labour 39

Figure 1.16. Perception of corruption remains relatively high 42

Figure 2.1. Slovenia is highly open to foreign trade 51

Figure 2.2. Reliance on foreign inputs is higher than the OECD average 52

Figure 2.3. The EU is Slovenia's largest trading partner, particularly in services 53

Figure 2.4. Companies have reduced some import dependencies 54

Figure 2.5. There is scope to reduce effective trade costs in manufacturing and services 58

Figure 2.6. There is scope to improve some trade facilitation measures 59

Figure 2.7. Barriers restricting trade in services could be further reduced 60

Figure 2.8. FDI restrictions can be lowered 61

Figure 3.1. Slovenia scores below the OECD average in AI-related R&D and policy environment 65

Figure 3.2. AI adoption is highest in knowledge-intensive services 66

Figure 3.3. AI adoption is relatively high but lagging among small firms 67

Figure 3.4. Lack of skills, legal uncertainty and data protection concerns limit AI use 68

Figure 3.5. Investment in AI is low 71

Figure 3.6. Publications per capita have kept pace with the rest of OECD countries 73

Figure 3.7. The number of open training datasets containing Slovenian is low 74

Figure 3.8. Current data centre capacity is slightly above the OECD average 75

Figure 3.9. Share of fibre subscriptions remains above OECD average 76

Figure 3.10. Connectivity gaps in rural areas are closing only slowly 76

Figure 3.11. Uptake of ICT and STEM studies is growing 77

Figure 3.12. Slovenian students score below the OECD average in reading and creative thinking 78

Figure 3.13. AI skills remain scarce 79

Figure 3.14. Acquiring coding skills happens mostly through formal education and on-the-job training 80

Figure 3.15. The net inflow of AI talent is low 81

Figure 4.1. Investment is low 88

Figure 4.2. Productivity lags 89

Figure 4.3. Intangible investment is relatively low 91

Figure 4.4. Capital markets remain shallow 92

Figure 4.5. Households keep savings mostly in bank deposits 93

Figure 4.6. Capital taxation is not neutral across asset classes 95

Figure 4.7. The private funded pension system remains underdeveloped 96

Figure 4.8. The labour tax wedge is high 97

Figure 4.9. Pension fund operating expenses are high 98

Figure 4.10. Non-bank institutional investors have a relatively minor role in capital markets 100

Figure 4.11. Venture capital investment is low 102

Figure 4.12. There is scope to reduce the regulatory burden to OECD best practice 104

Figure 4.13. The stock of inward foreign direct investment is lower than in peer economies 104

Figure 4.14. The use of regulatory impact assessments remains limited 106

Figure 4.15. Ex post reviews of regulation have significant scope for improvements 107

Figure 4.16. A large share of public procurement is not subject to competitive tendering 109

Figure 4.17. There is scope to strengthen competition in services and ease market exit 110

Figure 4.18. Business dynamism has declined 111

Figure 4.19. Electricity prices have been relatively low compared to the EU 112

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. The effect of the German fiscal package on the Slovenian economy 19

Box 1.2. Boosting defence spending in Slovenia 20

Box 1.3. The public sector pay reform 31

Box 2.1. The Slovenian Internationalisation Strategy 2021-2026 55

Box 2.2. National stockpiling systems in selected OECD countries 56

Box 2.3. The OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks 57

Box 3.1. AI adoption in the automotive sector 67

Box 3.2. Examples of sectoral policies supporting AI adoption 70

Box 3.3. Digital government initiatives supporting entrepreneurs in Estonia 71

Box 3.4. Examples of AI uses in the Slovenian public sector 72

Box 3.5. Promoting AI skills in formal education in Slovenia 79

Box 4.1. State-ownership in Slovenia 89

Box 4.2. Private funded pension systems in Denmark and Sweden 97

Box 4.3. Reducing state-involvement in the management of pension funds in Israel 99

Box 4.4. Listing of state-owned enterprises to deepen capital markets in Romania 100

Box 4.5. The Alternative Investment Market in the United Kingdom 101

Box 4.6. Capital market integration in the Baltic region 101

Box 4.7. Investment mandates of Dutch and Swedish pension funds 103

Box 4.8. Digitalised processes to fast-track build permits in the Baltics 105

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