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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Basic statistics of Norway, 2025 8

Executive summary 9

1. Preparing for long-term challenges 18

1.1. The economy continues to expand 19

1.1.1. Growth is set to pick up 20

1.1.2. The labour market is easing while imbalances remain 23

1.1.3. Foreign trade is largely driven by energy prices 27

1.2. Monetary policy should remain restrictive 29

1.3. The financial system requires continued attention 32

1.3.1. The system appears resilient, but some risks remain 32

1.3.2. Housing demand remains high, but construction is subdued 34

1.4. Fiscal policy faces long-term challenges 35

1.4.1. Spending continues to rise more than mainland revenues 35

1.4.2. The fiscal framework should better address high spending 39

1.4.3. Pressure on the public finances will keep rising 42

1.4.4. The tax burden on labour and capital should be eased 45

References 49

2. Fostering foundational skills 52

2.1. PISA scores have declined sharply amid rising inequalities 53

2.2. Tailoring education to specific student needs 53

2.3. Getting more out of high education spending 56

2.4. Improving teaching quality and further streamlining the curriculum 59

2.5. Declining quality of the school environment is being addressed 61

References 63

3. Managing the risks of global value chain disruptions 66

3.1. Norway's GVC integration has deepened 67

3.2. Addressing GVC disruptions 70

3.2.1. Macroeconomic policy can effectively react to GVC shocks 71

3.2.2. Norway has developed a broad-based and flexible risk management system 71

3.2.3. Inventories and stockpiling could be made more effective 72

3.3. Diversification could reduce GVC risks 74

3.3.1. Deepening trade helps to increase resilience against GVC shocks 74

3.3.2. Invest more in R&D but refrain from ineffective industrial policies 75

References 78

4. Resetting regulatory frameworks to revive business dynamism 80

4.1. Business dynamism is weakened by stringent regulations 81

4.1.1. Norwegian firms face increasing regulatory burdens 82

4.1.2. Stringent regulations reducing business dynamism 86

4.2. The regulatory policy making system should be revamped 90

4.2.1. Strengthening ex-post evaluation of regulation is key 90

4.2.2. Ex-ante regulatory impact assessment could be more effective 95

4.2.3. Regulatory oversight should remain solid 96

4.2.4. Stakeholder engagement should be better framed 97

4.3. Regulatory barriers should be revisited 99

4.3.1. Market entry regulation should be fit for purpose 100

4.3.2. Regulatory barriers in key upstream industries should be alleviated 103

4.3.3. Regulatory barriers to foreign firms should be rationalised 105

4.4. Insolvency regimes should be made business oriented 107

4.4.1. Most insolvency cases end up with liquidation 108

4.4.2. Formal insolvency proceedings should become more practicable 109

4.4.3. Special regimes for small businesses should be developed 112

References 115

Tables 7

Table 1. Growth is projected to remain steady 11

Table 1.1. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 22

Table 1.2. Events that could entail large changes to the outlook 22

Table 1.3. Potential impact of structural reforms on the level of per capita income 26

Table 1.4. Past recommendations and actions taken to foster a strong and resilient economy 35

Table 1.5. Past recommendations and actions taken to raise effectiveness of public spending 37

Table 1.6. Illustrative fiscal impact of recommended reforms 39

Table 1.7. Past recommendations and actions taken in climate policies 45

Table 1.8. Main findings and policy recommendations 48

Table 2.1. Policy recommendations 62

Table 3.1. Policy recommendations 77

Table 4.1. Past recommendations and actions taken to improve productivity 82

Table 4.2. Estimated annual reporting costs 85

Table 4.3. Policy recommendations 114

Figures 6

Figure 1. The economy has rebalanced, but inflation remains sticky 10

Figure 2. Public spending should be tamed 11

Figure 3. PISA scores have declined sharply 13

Figure 4. Regulatory frameworks need improvements in some policy areas 14

Figure 1.1. The economy has rebalanced and is set to grow 19

Figure 1.2. The country is both rich and equal, but its lead is shrinking 20

Figure 1.3. The economy is picking up, but inflation remains sticky 21

Figure 1.4. The labour market has eased 23

Figure 1.5. Labour market imbalances have widened 24

Figure 1.6. Youth employment has increased, while prime-age employment is below average 25

Figure 1.7. Sickness and disability weighs on employment 25

Figure 1.8. The oil boom of the past years boosted exports and the current account balance 27

Figure 1.9. Trade with Europe remains dominant 28

Figure 1.10. US tariffs have risen, but Norway has limited exposure 28

Figure 1.11. Policy rates have come down, while inflation remains sticky 29

Figure 1.12. The krone's fluctuations might be caused by long-term structural factors 30

Figure 1.13. Inflation is mainly driven by domestic factors 31

Figure 1.14. Inflation is expected to decline slowly 31

Figure 1.15. The financial system looks resilient overall 32

Figure 1.16. Banks are profitable, while non-performing loans continue rising 33

Figure 1.17. Household debt remains high, and house prices continue rising 34

Figure 1.18. Housing supply does not keep up with rising demand, creating affordability issues 35

Figure 1.19. While oil revenues are slowing, the structural non-oil deficit continues rising 36

Figure 1.20. Fiscal deficits are rising 37

Figure 1.21. Oil revenues play a key role in the sustainability of the wealth fund 39

Figure 1.22. Government spending is high and drifting up 40

Figure 1.23. The fiscal cost of aging will grow 42

Figure 1.24. The pension reform brings huge savings 43

Figure 1.25. Subsidies are high and rising 43

Figure 1.26. Producer support for agriculture is the highest in the OECD 44

Figure 1.27. The gap with the OECD on sickness and disability spending is widening 45

Figure 1.28. Tax levels are high, with natural resource taxation playing an important role 46

Figure 1.29. Taxation of immovable property is low 47

Figure 2.1. Norway's PISA scores have fallen below the OECD average 53

Figure 2.2. Differences are very small between schools, while they are large within schools 54

Figure 2.3. Girls outperform boys in reading and science 54

Figure 2.4. Immigrant students lag natives 55

Figure 2.5. High education spending needs to translate more into excellence 56

Figure 2.6. Norway has the OECD's smallest classes 57

Figure 2.7. Immigrant students do not seem to affect learning outcomes of native ones 58

Figure 2.8. Teacher salaries hardly progress 58

Figure 2.9. Teaching lacks clarity of purpose 59

Figure 3.1. Norway's GVC integration has deepened 67

Figure 3.2. Norway's import reliance is low, while it is high for exports 68

Figure 3.3. Trade in value added with Europe is becoming less important 68

Figure 3.4. Norway is less vulnerable to GVC risks thanks to the composition of its economy 69

Figure 3.5. The sourcing of vulnerable products is well-diversified 70

Figure 3.6. Trade costs are high in Norway 74

Figure 3.7. Norway ranks high on trade facilitation 75

Figure 3.8. Spending on research and development should be expanded 76

Figure 4.1. Underlying productivity growth has slowed 81

Figure 4.2. Some regulatory frameworks need to be improved 83

Figure 4.3. Regulation is perceived as a significant challenge 83

Figure 4.4. Reporting obligations and industry-specific regulations are cumbersome 84

Figure 4.5. Regulatory costs for businesses in Norway are high 86

Figure 4.6. Business dynamism has been on a declining trend 87

Figure 4.7. Turnover is high but firm expansion is limited 88

Figure 4.8. Norwegian young and small firms are innovation oriented 89

Figure 4.9. Young prospective firms likely often end up with exiting the market prematurely 89

Figure 4.10. Ex-post reviews of regulation have significant scope for improvements 91

Figure 4.11. The scope to improve regulatory impact assessment is comparatively large 95

Figure 4.12. Corruption is perceived to be low in Norway 98

Figure 4.13. Enhancing policy making would also reduce vulnerabilities to public integrity 99

Figure 4.14. Licence and permit regulations are stringent 102

Figure 4.15. Firm entry is limited in some sectors 103

Figure 4.16. Entry barriers exist in some key network industries 103

Figure 4.17. The FDI stock in Norway is very low for a small economy 106

Figure 4.18. Barriers to the entry of foreign affiliates for services are high 106

Figure 4.19. There is large room for improvement in insolvency regimes 109

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Potential impact on growth of OECD recommended reforms 26

Box 1.2. Norway's wage bargaining process has many advantages, but also drawbacks 26

Box 1.3. What drives the exchange rate of the krone? 29

Box 1.4. Quantifying fiscal policy recommendations 39

Box 1.5. Spending rules: An "open sesame" for responsible fiscal policy? 40

Box 1.6. Sweden's structured budget process helps contain spending 41

Box 2.1. Standardised testing of immigrant children's language skills in Austria 55

Box 2.2. Does school size or the share of immigrant students affect PISA performance? 57

Box 2.3. Standardised testing in Iceland and the Netherlands 60

Box 3.1. Norway's risk management set-up is comprehensive, decentralised and flexible 71

Box 3.2. The Dutch Geo-Economic Monitor 72

Box 3.3. Finland and Switzerland built sophisticated emergency stockpiling 73

Box 4.1. Estimated administrative costs for small and medium-sized enterprises 84

Box 4.2. Business demography statistics in Norway 87

Box 4.3. Main findings from recent OECD studies on the agriculture sector in Norway 91

Box 4.4. Anti-competitive practices among the largest grocery chains 92

Box 4.5. Examples of broader reviews based on a principle 94

Box 4.6. The Ministry of Regulation in New Zealand 96

Box 4.7. Altinn - a web portal managed by the Norwegian Digitalisation Agency 100

Box 4.8. The licensing requirements and procedures for energy projects 104

Box 4.9. The US Small Business Reorganisation Act 113

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