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Title page 1

Contents 8

Acknowledgments 15

About the Authors 16

Executive Summary 18

Abbreviations 25

CHAPTER 1. The Impact of Temperature Changes on MENAAP's Firms and Adaptation Policies 27

INTRODUCTION 27

A SLUGGISH PRIVATE SECTOR 29

SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS OF HEAT ON FIRMS' PERFORMANCE 30

TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AS HEAT ADAPTATION 42

HOW POLICIES CAN ALLEVIATE THE HARMFUL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE EVOLUTION ON FIRMS 45

NOTES 46

REFERENCES 48

CHAPTER 2. Impacts of European Climate Mitigation Policies on MENAAP's Trade and Foreign Direct Investment 51

INTRODUCTION 51

THE EU CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM 52

CGE MODELING OF CBAM IMPACTS 62

CGE MODELING RESULTS 66

IMPACTS ON FDI INFLOWS 71

TRADE AND FDI VULNERABILITY, BY COUNTRY 75

NOTES 82

REFERENCES 84

CHAPTER 3. Building Resilience and Seizing Economic Opportunities 86

INTRODUCTION 86

FINANCING THE ADOPTION OF GREENER TECHNOLOGIES 88

ENHANCING THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT ADAPTATION 93

FOSTERING GREEN COMPETITIVENESS TO SUSTAIN ACCESS TO EUROPEAN MARKETS 97

ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ARISING FROM MORE SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIES 105

NOTES 110

REFERENCES 112

Appendix A: Annexes for Chapter 1 119

ANNEX 1A. THE PRIVATE SECTOR LANDSCAPE: SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURES 119

ANNEX 1B. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE EFFECTS ON FIRM PERFORMANCE AND RESULTING POLICIES 121

ANNEX 1C. HAZARDS AND EXPOSURE: SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURES 124

ANNEX 1D. VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS AND REGRESSION SPECIFICATIONS FOR DATA ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FIRMS 128

ANNEX 1E. VULNERABILITY RESULTS 130

ANNEX 1F. RESILIENCE RESULTS: SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES AND FIGURES 135

ANNEX 1G. ENERGY EFFICIENCY RESULTS: SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURE AND TABLES 141

ANNEX 1H. GREEN TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION IN MOROCCO 143

ANNEX 1I. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT RESULTS: SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURES AND TABLES 144

Appendix B: Annexes for Chapter 2 147

ANNEX 2A. THE UK CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM 147

ANNEX 2B. CARBON PAYMENTS AND EXPORTS OF CBAM-AFFECTED PRODUCTS TO THE UK 153

ANNEX 2C. CARBON PAYMENTS AND EXPORTS OF CBAM-AFFECTED PRODUCTS TO THE EU 154

ANNEX 2D. TRADE DIVERSION OF NON-CBAM PRODUCTS, BY DESTINATION: SUPPLEMENTARY FIGURES 156

ANNEX 2E. IMPACT OF EU CBAM ON MENAAP COUNTRIES' EXPORTS 162

ANNEX 2F. FDI IN MENAAP 165

ANNEX 2G. MENAAP COUNTRIES' GVC EXPOSURE TO THE EU CS3D 168

NOTE 169

REFERENCES 169

Appendix C: Annexes for Chapter 3 170

ANNEX 3A. SUPPLEMENTARY DATA 170

ANNEX 3B. COUNTRY RESPONSES TO EU CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICIES 172

ANNEX 3C. ESTIMATING REVENUES WITH CPAT 174

REFERENCES 176

Tables 13

TABLE 2.1. Total Carbon Payments as a Share of Export Values to the EU, by Sector, MENAAP Countries 65

Figures 10

FIGURE 1.1. An Important Proportion of Firms and Jobs Are in Locations with More Than 100 Extreme Heat Days Per Year 33

FIGURE 1.2. Extreme Heat Strains Productivity, Jobs, and Production Costs, with the Sharpest Impact on Small Firms and Greater Resilience... 35

FIGURE 1.3. Extreme Heat Days Tend to Lower Firms' Direct Electricity Expenditure While Increasing the Use of Power Generators 37

FIGURE 1.4. Few Firms Are Adopting Heating and Cooling Improvements 38

FIGURE 1.5. There Is Ample Room to Improve Energy Efficiency In MENAAP 40

FIGURE 1.6. More Productive, Larger, and Exporting Firms Tend to Be More Energy Efficient 41

FIGURE 1.7. Mentions of Green Technologies and Environmental Regulations Are Rising 43

FIGURE 1.8. MENAAP Firms Are Experiencing Increased Regulatory Pressure 44

FIGURE 2.1. Adopted in 2023, CBAM will be Phased In from 2026 to 2034 53

FIGURE 2.2. CBAM Trade Exposure Index and Key Components of MENAAP Countries in Main EU CBAM Sectors 58

FIGURE 2.3. Projected Impact of CBAM on Selected Macro Indicators in MENAAP Countries 68

FIGURE 2.4. Projected Change in MENAAP's Exports to EU and Rest of the World Relative to Baseline 70

FIGURE 2.5. Chinese Greenfield FDI Flows in MENAAP Have Risen in Aluminum and Steel Sectors Since CBAM's Announcement 72

FIGURE 2.6. Globally, the Negative Effect of a Sector's CBAM TEI on FDI is Largest in the Aluminum and Fertilizer Sectors After the 2019... 74

FIGURE 2.7. Globally, The Negative Effect of a Sector's CBAM TEI on FDI Is Not Driven by MENAAP, Except for the Aluminum 75

FIGURE 2.8. Most Countries in MENAAP with High Trade Exposure in Aluminum and in Iron and Steel Rely Only Minimally on FDI 77

FIGURE 2.9. In MENAAP, Most Countries in the Cement and Fertilizer Sectors Have Limited FDI and Low Export Exposure, Though a Few Stand Out 78

FIGURE 3.1. Potential Revenue and GDP Increases from Carbon Pricing and Taxation in Egypt, Arab Rep., 2026-36 103

FIGURE 3.2. Estimated Evolution of the Sustainable Cooling Market, by Region, 2023-50 107

Boxes 10

BOX 2.1. Estimating the Effect of the CBAM Announcement on FDI 73

BOX 2.2. EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence 80

BOX 3.1. Different Uses of Green and Sustainability-Linked Bonds 91

BOX 3.2. Morocco: Green Competitiveness in Industrial Acceleration Zones 95

BOX 3.3. Learning from Successful Fossil Fuel Reforms: Shifting to Social Spending for Equity and Mitigation of Risks of Political Unrest 100

Maps 13

MAP 1.1. MENAAP Countries Face a Large Number of Extreme Heat Days, 2023 32

Box Figures 11

FIGURE B2.2.1. Mining and Quarrying Is the MENAAP Region's Most Exposed Sector to EU CS3D 81

Appendix Tables 13

TABLE 1E.1. Effects of Extreme Heat Days on Main Firm Performance Outcomes in MENAAP Countries 131

TABLE 1E.2. Effects of Extreme Heat Days Interacted with Sectors on Sales, MENAAP Countries 131

TABLE 1E.3. Effects of Extreme Heat Days on Costs, MENAAP Countries 132

TABLE 1E.4. Effects of Extreme Heat Days Interacted with Firms' Characteristics on Sales, MENAAP Countries 132

TABLE 1E.5. Effects of Extreme Heat Days Interacted with Firms' Characteristics on Sales per Worker, MENAAP Countries 133

TABLE 1E.6. Effects of Average Temperature on Main Firm Performance Outcomes, MENAAP Countries 134

TABLE 1E.7. Effects of Average Temperature on Firms' Costs, MENAAP Countries 134

TABLE 1F.1. Effects of Heat Days Interacted with Adaptation Practices on Sales per Worker, MENAAP Countries 135

TABLE 1F.2. Effects of Access to Finance on Adopting Cooling Improvements, MENAAP Countries 135

TABLE 1F.3. Relationship Between Firms' Investment and Adaptation Practices, MENAAP Countries 140

TABLE 1G.1. Effect of Firm Characteristics on Firm Energy Intensity, MENAAP Countries 142

TABLE 1G.2. Effect of Extreme Heat Days on Firm Electricity Consumption, MENAAP Countries 142

TABLE 1I.1. Effects of Extreme Heat Days Interacted with Business Environment on Sales, MENAAP Countries 144

TABLE 1I.2. Effects of Extreme Heat Days Interacted with Business Environment Conditions on Sales per Worker, MENAAP Countries 146

TABLE 2A.1. Comparison of EU and UK CBAMs 148

TABLE 2B.1. AVE of MENAAP Countries' Total Carbon Payments and CBAM-Affected Exports to the UK 153

TABLE 2C.1. AVE of MENAAP Countries' Total Carbon Payments and CBAM-Affected Exports to the EU 154

TABLE 2F.1. The Global Decrease in Greenfield FDI Announcements for Iron and Steel Is not Influenced by MENAAP, but Significant Reductions... 167

TABLE 3C.1. Main Parameters for CPAT Analysis 174

Appendix Figures 11

FIGURE 1A.1. Significant Business Environment Obstacles to Firms in MENAAP Countries 119

FIGURE 1A.2. Most Firms in the MENAAP Region Remain Small 120

FIGURE 1A.3. Most MENAAP Firms Are Either Not Involved in International Trade or Only Import 121

FIGURE 1B.1. Channels of Effects on Firms of Climate Hazards with a Slow Onset 122

FIGURE 1B.2. The Complementarity Between Adaptation and Productivity Informs the Prioritization of Policy Areas 124

FIGURE 1C.1. Average Temperatures Are Rising (1950-2023) in MENAAP Countries 124

FIGURE 1C.2. Average Increases in Temperatures Varied Broadly Across MENAAP Countries Between 1990-95 and 2018-23 125

FIGURE 1C.3. The Average Number of Days with Extreme Heat Has Increased Across MENAAP Countries Between 1990-95 and 2018-23 125

FIGURE 1F.1. Share of Firms that Adopted Water Management Practices, by Firm Size, MENAAP Countries 136

FIGURE 1F.2. Share of Firms Monitoring Water Usage, by Firm Size, MENAAP Countries 137

FIGURE 1F.3. Share of Firms that Improved Lighting Systems, by Firm Size, in MENAAP Countries 137

FIGURE 1F.4. Share of Firms that Monitor Emissions, by Firm Size, in MENAAP Countries 138

FIGURE 1F.5. Share of Firms Setting Climate-Related Strategic Objectives, by Firm Size, MENAAP Countries 138

FIGURE 1F.6. Complementarity Between Firm Productivity and Probability of Investing in Heating or Cooling Improvements, MENAAP Countries 139

FIGURE 1F.7. Complementarity Between Firm Productivity and Probability of Monitoring Water Usage, MENAAP Countries 139

FIGURE 1F.8. Complementarity Between Firm Productivity and Probability of Setting Climate-Related Strategic Objectives, MENAAP Countries 140

FIGURE 1G.1. Energy Intensity of the Manufacturing Sector in MENAAP Countries Over Time 141

FIGURE 1I.1. Marginal Effect of Extreme Heat Days on Firm Sales at Varying Levels of Regulatory Constraints, MENAAP Countries 145

FIGURE 2A.1. Some MENAAP Countries' Trade Exposure in Certain UK CBAM Sectors Is Significant 150

FIGURE 2D.1. Change in Destinations of MENAAP Countries' Exports Relative to Baseline 156

FIGURE 2E.1. Projected Change in MENAAP's Exports to EU and Rest of the World, by Sector 162

FIGURE 2F.1. FDI Is Critical for MENAAP's Economies 165

FIGURE 2F.2. MENAAP Has the Third Lowest Share of "Green" Greenfield FDI among EMDEs 166

FIGURE 2G.1. GVC Exposure in the MENAAP Region to EU CS3D, by Sector 168

FIGURE 3A.1. Share of Firms Citing A2F as a Significant Constraint in MENAAP and Globally 170

FIGURE 3A.2. SMEs' Collateral-to-Loan Value Ratios in MENAAP Countries 171

FIGURE 3A.3. Issuance of Green Bonds, by MENAAP Country, in Relation to Selected COPs, 2016-25 171

FIGURE 3A.4. State Presence in High-Emitting Sectors in Relation to Climate-Vulnerable Sectors in MENAAP Countries 172

FIGURE 3C.1. CPAT Revenue and Cost Components 175

Appendix Maps 13

MAP 1C.1. There Is Wide Variation in Exposure to Extreme Heat Days Across and Within MENAAP Countries, 2023 126

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알라딘제공
The Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) region is highly exposed to climate change. Countries across the region are already among the most water-scarce in the world and increasingly vulnerable to heat extremes, droughts, floods, and sea-level rise. Rising temperatures are already reducing labor productivity, straining health systems, intensifying desertification, and contributing to water scarcity, crop losses, and higher energy demand for cooling, while water scarcity and flooding are deepening fragility, poverty, and displacement risks. This high and rising exposure creates an urgent need to respond. Climate risks are already materializing and affecting economic activity, firm performance, trade, and livelihoods. This report focuses on two concrete and immediate examples of how climate change and related policies affect firms and trade in the region. First, more frequent periods of extreme heat are associated with a 6 percent decrease in sales, a 4 percent reduction in labor productivity, and an 8 percent decline in wages, with smaller firms and those outside global value chains most affected. Second, new and forthcoming climate mitigation policies in Europe -- a key trading partner -- will raise costs to firms exporting to that market, particularly through the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Despite these impacts, few firms are taking measures to adapt. Responding to climate change can generate benefits that go well beyond reducing climate-related losses. Economic opportunities will arise from the necessary move to more sustainable economies, including in renewable energy, sustainable cooling, and battery production. Climate-responsive reforms can deliver a double dividend by addressing both climate vulnerabilities and long-standing structural constraints in MENAAP economies -- provided swift policy action is taken

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