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Title page 1

Contents 6

Foreword 4

Acknowledgements 5

Abbreviations and acronyms 9

Executive summary 11

1. Improving the governance and financing architecture for Ukraine's reconstruction: Key findings and recommendations 14

1.1. Ukraine's first-order challenge is to make scarce funding more selective, credible and durable 15

1.2. The reform frontier has shifted from pipeline creation to project preparation and delivery readiness 16

1.3. Ukraine's stronger upstream architecture is not yet matched by downstream delivery discipline 16

1.4. Public funding and donor support remain the backbone, but financing capacity must be built around them 17

1.5. Private participation should be expanded selectively 17

1.6. Sustainability, resilience and integrity need to be built into the core system 18

1.7. Transport provides the clearest test case for integrated reform 18

1.8. Priority recommendations 19

PART I. Planning for delivery: Core functions of infrastructure governance 20

2. Governance for sustainable and quality infrastructure in Ukraine 21

2.1. Key government actors 22

2.2. Infrastructure needs 24

2.3. Strengthening core infrastructure governance functions 25

2.4. Enabling functions supporting infrastructure governance 28

2.5. Overall state of affairs 29

References 30

3. Improving the core functions of infrastructure governance 31

3.1. Needs assessment and strategic planning 32

3.2. Project appraisal and selection 39

3.3. Infrastructure permitting 47

3.4. Procurement strategy 52

3.5. Procurement 57

3.6. Asset management 62

3.7. Decommissioning 65

References 67

4. Benchmarking Ukraine's performance on the infrastructure governance indicators 71

4.1. IGI 1. Long-term strategic vision for infrastructure 73

4.2. IGI 2. Fiscal sustainability, affordability and value for money 74

4.3. IGI 3. Efficient and effective public procurement 75

4.4. IGI 4. Stakeholder participation 76

4.5. IGI 5. Evidence-informed decision making 77

References 78

PART II. Enabling environment for financing and investment in infrastructure by the private sector 79

5. Macroeconomic developments and the enabling environment for infrastructure investment and financing 80

5.1. Macroeconomic developments in Ukraine 81

5.2. Consolidating Ukraine's enabling environment 84

5.3. Developing a pipeline of infrastructure projects 91

5.4. Policy recommendations 95

References 96

Notes 100

6. Mobilising investment into infrastructure 101

6.1. Investment in transport infrastructure 102

6.2. Financial sector 104

6.3. International donor support 114

6.4. Policy recommendations 116

References 117

7. Aligning infrastructure investments with sustainability 120

7.1. Sustainable finance, and environmental and social considerations 121

7.2. Climate risk and adaptation 123

7.3. Policy recommendations 124

References 125

8. Transport sector considerations 127

8.1. Transport sector's role in Ukraine's recovery 128

8.2. Rail 129

8.3. Road 132

8.4. Ports 133

8.5. Airports 135

8.6. Policy recommendations 136

References 137

Tables 8

Table 2.1. Key actors in infrastructure governance in Ukraine 23

Table 5.1. Corruption risk across the infrastructure lifecycle 89

Table 6.1. Investment projects with private participation in transport and logistics sectors since 2022 102

Table 6.2. Examples of risks that may materialise throughout infrastructure project development 108

Table 6.3. Typology of guarantees and insurance for infrastructure financing 110

Table 6.4. Investment-related insurance provided by Ukraine's ECA 113

Table 6.5. Ukraine War Risk Insurance Facility 114

Table 8.1. Damages, losses and needs across infrastructure in Ukraine 129

Table 8.2. Potential cross-border rail projects connecting Ukraine and EU countries with an EU standard rail gauge 130

Table 8.3. Chornomorsk Seaport Container Terminal concession terms 134

Figures 8

Figure 4.1. Ukraine's performance on the IGIs compared with the OECD average 73

Figure 4.2. Long-term strategic vision for infrastructure 74

Figure 4.3. Fiscal sustainability, affordability and value for money 75

Figure 4.4. Efficient and effective public procurement 76

Figure 4.5. Stakeholder participation 77

Figure 4.6. Evidence-informed decision making 78

Figure 5.1. Evolution of Ukraine's GDP and inflation 82

Figure 5.2. Ukraine's general government debt and fiscal balance 83

Figure 5.3. Ukraine's exchange rates and reserves 84

Figure 5.4. Ukraine's sovereign credit rating and default rates 85

Figure 5.5. Evolution of FDI inflows and stock in Ukraine 85

Figure 5.6. Experiences with corruption and perceptions of corruption in Ukraine 89

Figure 5.7. Ukraine's priority public investment projects by sector 92

Figure 6.1. Project financing in Ukraine (2018-H12025) 103

Figure 6.2. Ukraine's 2025 budget allocation by sector and type of funding 104

Figure 6.3. Banking activities relative to peer countries 105

Figure 6.4. Market share of bank by ownership (share of retail deposits) 105

Figure 6.5. Political risk insurance provision in Ukraine (pre-2022 and post-2022) 109

Figure 8.1. Ukraine's logistics performance relative to EU neighbours 128

Boxes 32

Box 3.1. New procedures for the Single Project Pipeline in Ukraine 32

Box 3.2. The role of needs assessment in strategic planning 34

Box 3.3. Subnational feedback on pipeline entry and project-preparation capacity 36

Box 3.4. The role of transport modelling in appraisal and option testing 37

Box 3.5. Emerging appraisal guidance for Ukraine: Why the new methodology matters 41

Box 3.6. Why weak price systems generate downstream risk: Lessons from Brazil's road concessions 43

Box 3.7. From streamlining to integrated case management: lessons from OECD work on accelerating infrastructure permitting 51

Box 3.8. Value for money assessment as part of procurement strategy for PPPs 53

Box 3.9. Work-package analysis and contract bundling: Lessons from Germany 56

Box 3.10. Category management for recurrent reconstruction procurement packages 61

Box 5.1. Ukraine's Law on State Support of Investment Projects with Significant Investments 86

Box 5.2. Project Development Funds to scale up Ukraine's PPP pipeline 94

Box 6.1. Examples of key risks in the context of infrastructure financing 108

Box 6.2. Guarantees and insurance for infrastructure financing 110

Box 6.3. Wartime projects involving guarantees to mobilise private investment 111

Box 6.4. Key principles to ensure economic efficiency in infrastructure projects 112

Box 7.1. Environmental and social impact assessments in Ukraine's Olvia Specialised Seaport Concession 123

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