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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Basic statistics of the Slovak Republic, 2025 8

Executive summary 9

1. Strengthening growth and fiscal prospects 18

1.1. Reducing the fiscal deficit in a weak economic environment 19

1.1.1. Growth is faltering 19

1.1.2. Inflation remains elevated 21

1.1.3. Fiscal consolidation and lower foreign demand will weigh on growth 21

1.2. Maintaining financial stability 24

1.2.1. The banking sector appears robust 24

1.2.2. Rising house prices do not pose immediate financial risks but bear on the cost of living 26

1.3. Building an integrated strategy to boost long-term growth and restore fiscal sustainability 29

1.3.1. Debt stabilisation hinges on integrated fiscal-structural strategies 29

1.3.2. Responding to a shrinking, ageing population 32

1.3.3. Managing pension, health and long-term care spending 39

1.3.4. Improving the budgetary position through measures that preserve long-term growth 43

References 53

2. Boosting economy-wide competitiveness amid acute automotive sector challenges 58

2.1. Slowing economic growth with significant challenges on the horizon 59

2.2. Improving the business environment to support growth 64

2.2.1. Strengthening the rule of law and addressing corruption 65

2.2.2. Cutting red tape to foster competition 68

2.2.3. Improving the tax system to encourage business expansion 71

2.2.4. Easing entry restrictions in regulated professions and speeding-up insolvency procedures 75

2.2.5. Attracting FDI inflows and simplifying trade 77

2.3. Strengthening public and private investment 81

2.3.1. Incentivising more innovation 83

2.3.2. Unleashing the benefits of the digital economy 86

2.3.3. Improving the efficacy of public investment 88

2.4. Tackling pressing skills shortages 90

2.4.1. Improving children's education 92

2.4.2. Ensuring that VET programmes are adaptable 94

2.4.3. Improving tertiary education, attracting skilled immigrants and expatriated nationals 95

2.4.4. Strengthening life-long learning to reinforce adult skills 96

References 100

3. Reaping the economic benefits from AI 108

3.1. Slovakia has much to gain from embracing AI 109

3.2. AI adoption remains limited but is growing 110

3.3. Fostering AI adoption in the business and public sectors 112

3.3.1. There is scope for broader AI use across companies 112

3.3.2. AI is being rolled out across the public sector 113

3.4. Boosting advanced AI research 115

3.5. Increasing access to capital, data, and computer infrastructure 116

3.6. Supporting companies in navigating the regulatory landscape 118

3.7. Addressing AI-related skills shortages 119

3.7.1. Companies find it difficult to hire workers with the skills needed for AI 120

3.7.2. Higher education in relevant fields is low but expanding 120

3.7.3. Facilitating transitions to AI occupations 121

3.7.4. Retaining AI-fluent workers is a challenge 123

References 125

4. Unlocking the Potential of the Net-Zero Transition and Adapting to Climate Change 130

4.1. Seizing economic opportunities from the net zero transition 131

4.1.1. Manufacturing for net zero 131

4.1.2. Fostering more innovation in low-emission technologies 132

4.1.3. Benefiting from the green job transition 132

4.1.4. Capitalising on low-carbon power generation 134

4.2. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions 138

4.3. Adapting to climate change 142

References 147

Tables 6

Table 1. Near-term economic projections 11

Table 1.1. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 20

Table 1.2. Events that could lead to major changes in the outlook 22

Table 1.3. Characteristics of government fiscal stress tests 24

Table 1.4. Past recommendations to make the housing market more efficient and preserve financial stability 28

Table 1.5. Illustrative fiscal impact of tax and spending recommendations 31

Table 1.6. Illustrative impact of reform package on GDP per capita 32

Table 1.7. Past recommendations to increase employment 42

Table 1.8. Past recommendations for fiscal consolidation 47

Table 1.9. Policy recommendations to strengthen macro-economic and fiscal management 52

Table 2.1. Past OECD recommendations on investment and innovation 89

Table 2.2. Past OECD recommendations on education and skills 98

Table 2.3. Policy recommendations to boost economy-wide competitiveness 99

Table 3.1. Recommendations for strengthening AI development and adoption 124

Table 4.1. Past recommendations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 136

Table 4.2. Past recommendations to improve the energy efficiency of buildings 140

Table 4.3. Policy recommendations to reap the potential of the net zero transition and adapt to climate change 146

Figures 6

Figure 1. The ratio of older people to those of working age is set to nearly double 10

Figure 2. Further advances are warranted to fight corruption and improve pro-competition regulation 12

Figure 3. The skills base for AI has scope to expand 13

Figure 4. Very-low-carbon electricity is a source of strength for the net-zero transition 14

Figure 1.1. Growth has been subdued amid weak consumer confidence and foreign demand 19

Figure 1.2. US effective tariff rates have increased substantially 21

Figure 1.3. Inflation remains substantial 23

Figure 1.4. Banks have sound capital buffers 25

Figure 1.5. A rising lending spread and low levels of non-performing loans are supporting bank earnings 26

Figure 1.6. House prices are picking up 27

Figure 1.7. Housing costs absorb a high share of incomes 28

Figure 1.8. Stylised debt scenarios underline the need for ambitious stabilisation efforts 29

Figure 1.9. Combining fiscal improvement with structural reform reduces debt more lastingly and robustly than fiscal adjustment only 30

Figure 1.10. A shrinking population and a falling employment share are weighing on long-term growth prospects 33

Figure 1.11. A shrinking workforce threatens long-term growth 34

Figure 1.12. Gender employment gaps are larger around average childbearing age 35

Figure 1.13. Maternity leave is comparatively long while childcare supply remains limited 37

Figure 1.14. There is scope to raise employment rates among older workers 38

Figure 1.15. Comparatively few workers above 55 receive training 39

Figure 1.16. Net immigration could offset ageing only at high levels 39

Figure 1.17. Pension, health and long-term care expenditure are set to rise over the next two decades 41

Figure 1.18. Health and long-term care needs for older people will keep putting pressure on public expenditure 42

Figure 1.19. Potential savings estimates in transport and public order and safety are high 44

Figure 1.20. There is scope to cut public expenditure 45

Figure 1.21. Filing tax returns is perceived as particularly difficult 46

Figure 1.22. Space for tax increases is limited 48

Figure 1.23. Fiscal response became more stabilising from the EU accession period 51

Figure 2.1. Economic convergence has stalled 60

Figure 2.2. The gap in GDP is mainly due to lower TFP 61

Figure 2.3. Several barriers impede growth and convergence 62

Figure 2.4. Automotive activity is shaped by foreign demand 63

Figure 2.5. Regulation has become more competition-friendly but trust in public institutions remains low 65

Figure 2.6. Perception of corruption is high in the Slovak Republic 66

Figure 2.7. There is scope for improving product market regulation 69

Figure 2.8. The cost of starting a limited liability company is low, but required capital high 70

Figure 2.9. Barriers to growth and scale-up remain 72

Figure 2.10. The Slovak Republic has a very large share of self-employed people 73

Figure 2.11. Marginal tax wedges on labour are high and tax rates on capital uneven 75

Figure 2.12. Barriers are high in some services professions 76

Figure 2.13. Business churn is higher than the EU average 77

Figure 2.14. The share of value added of foreign MNEs is very high in the automotive industry 78

Figure 2.15. Barriers to trade can be reduced 79

Figure 2.16. Estimates of the increase in Slovak annual productivity growth 80

Figure 2.17. Public and private investment are low 81

Figure 2.18. Real investment is lower than implied by changes in GDP 82

Figure 2.19. Low capital formation has led to low growth 83

Figure 2.20. R&D expenditures are low 84

Figure 2.21. Uptake of capital and R&D support is limited while tax incentives are generous 86

Figure 2.22. Digital infrastructure is lagging 87

Figure 2.23. Investment in ICT and use of digital technologies are low 88

Figure 2.24. Absorption of EU funds is low 89

Figure 2.25. The Slovak labour market is generally strong 90

Figure 2.26. Skills shortages are a key barrier to growth and investment 91

Figure 2.27. PISA scores are below OECD averages and peer countries 92

Figure 2.28. Test scores vary significantly across schools 93

Figure 2.29. Many Slovaks live abroad but return migration has increased recently 96

Figure 2.30. Adult skills lag OECD countries 97

Figure 3.1. Slovakia performs low on the OECD.AI Index 109

Figure 3.2. The use of AI among Slovak companies lags EU peers 110

Figure 3.3. Automotive and machinery equipment manufacturing lead in AI adoption in the manufacturing sector 111

Figure 3.4. Small companies are lagging behind in AI use for production and logistics 112

Figure 3.5. AI-related scientific publications have been expanding in Slovakia 115

Figure 3.6. AI-related publications are below the OECD average 116

Figure 3.7. The number of open monolingual training datasets in Slovak is low 117

Figure 3.8. Data infrastructure is limited 118

Figure 3.9. Graduates in ICT courses are growing but are comparatively few per age cohort 121

Figure 3.10. Coding skills in Slovakia are acquired primarily through online resources 122

Figure 4.1. Small shares of VC and public R&D funds go to green innovation 132

Figure 4.2. Nearly one in four workers in Slovakia works in occupations anticipated to receive stronger demand as a result of the net-zero transition 133

Figure 4.3. Nuclear power plants and dams allow the Slovak Republic to produce very low-carbon electricity 135

Figure 4.4. The Slovak Republic is an electricity exporter 135

Figure 4.5. Administrative procedures to comply with environmental regulation are seen as particularly cumbersome in the Slovak Republic 137

Figure 4.6. Regulation sets retail electricity prices at low levels 138

Figure 4.7. GHG emissions are projected to remain above net zero in 2050 139

Figure 4.8. Effective carbon rates are well aligned with EU averages except for emissions from buildings 141

Figure 4.9. Heavy industries such as steelmaking face much higher carbon pricing than in non-EU countries 142

Figure 4.10. Agricultural drought has become more prevalent 143

Figure 4.11. Exposure to high temperatures will increase 144

Figure 4.12. Insurance protection against climate-related disasters has historically been low 145

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Testing their fiscal plans against adverse scenarios 24

Box 1.2. Quantifying the impact of selected policy recommendations 31

Box 1.3. Estimation of potential savings in government spending 44

Box 1.4. The fiscal framework 50

Box 1.5. An empirical investigation into fiscal responses to the debt level 51

Box 2.1. The gap in GDP per capita is primarily due to low TFP 61

Box 2.2. The automotive sector is a key driver of the Slovak economy 63

Box 2.3. Estimated productivity gains from lowering EU trade barriers in services 80

Box 2.4. Cyclical and structural trends in investment 82

Box 2.5. Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme in the United Kingdom 85

Box 3.1. Examples of AI use cases in the public sector 114

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