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Title page 1

Contents 6

Acknowledgments 10

About the Authors 12

Key Findings and Messages 14

Executive Summary 19

Abbreviations 31

1. Unveiling Harm's Way 33

INTRODUCTION 33

A HAZARD-PRONE REGION 34

MORE POOR PEOPLE IN HARM'S WAY? 42

FLOODS IN CITIES: ARE POOR INDIVIDUALS ALWAYS MORE EXPOSED? NOT NECESSARILY 51

ONE IN FOUR POOR PEOPLE LIVE IN HIGH-VALUE ECOSYSTEMS, MANY EXPOSED TO CLIMATE HAZARDS 55

PEERING INTO THE FUTURE 57

NOTES 61

REFERENCES 63

2. Risk of Climate Hazards 67

INTRODUCTION 67

HOW MANY PEOPLE IN LAC ARE VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE HAZARDS, AND WHO ARE THEY? 67

CLIMATE HAZARDS RISK: THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON INCOMES, ASSETS, AND POVERTY 72

CLIMATE HAZARDS RISK: LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES 77

NOTES 86

REFERENCES 87

3. Protecting Poor People from Climate Hazard Risks 92

THE CASE FOR ADAPTATION NOW 92

PREVENTION 97

INSURANCE 114

COPING 121

STRONGER TOGETHER: THE POWER OF COMBINED INSTRUMENTS AND SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION 130

NOTES 133

REFERENCES 134

4. Improving Adaptation 141

INTRODUCTION 141

INCENTIVES 142

INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGY 147

INVESTMENTS 155

INSTITUTIONS 162

NOTES 171

REFERENCES 172

APPENDIX A. Background Papers 179

Glossary 181

Tables 9

TABLE ES.1. LAC regional overview of climate exposure, vulnerability, climate risk impact, and adaptation: A traffic light system assessment 26

TABLE 1.1. Distribution of exposure rates by climate hazard for total, poor, and nonpoor populations, LAC region 45

TABLE 1.2. Exposure rates to flood hazard for total, MDP, and MDNP populations in selected cities 54

TABLE 2.1. Typology of countries, by climate-risk-induced vulnerability to poverty and Global Climate Risk Index 81

TABLE 3.1. Adaptation strategies to climate hazards and change 96

TABLE 3.2. Policy levers for reducing deforestation and links to poverty reduction 109

TABLE 3.3. Availability of disaster risk financing instruments by country, circa 2020-24 122

TABLE 3.4. Number of countries within each level of adaptiveness by building block 126

TABLE 3.5. LAC regional overview of climate exposure, vulnerability, climate risk impact, and adaptation: A traffic light system assessment 131

Figures 8

FIGURE ES.1. Number of casualties and people affected by climate disasters, 1970-2024 22

FIGURE ES.2. Impact of climate shocks on the country poverty gap, by type of social protection system 25

FIGURE 1.1. Components of climate hazard risk 34

FIGURE 1.2. Frequency of climate hazards in LAC 36

FIGURE 1.3. Number of climate disasters in LAC, by subregion, 2003-23 36

FIGURE 1.4. Estimates and projections of levels of urbanization by major world regions, 1850-2050 51

FIGURE 1.5. Historical average temperature across LAC, 1900-2020 58

FIGURE 1.6. Frequency of Atlantic cyclones in the past 50 years, by maximum wind speed threshold (duration 〉2 days) 58

FIGURE 2.1. Number of people vulnerable to poverty induced by structural factors or by types of risk 69

FIGURE 2.2. Percentage of poor individuals and individuals with CRI vulnerability 70

FIGURE 2.3. Average income required per person to overcome gap between postshock income and the poverty line, by risk source 70

FIGURE 2.4. Number of casualties and affected people by climate disasters, 1970-2024 79

FIGURE 2.5. Deaths from and population affected by climate hazards, per 100,000 population, by country income level, 1970-2024 80

FIGURE 3.1. Conceptual framework to understand adaptation 94

FIGURE 3.2. Deaths by hurricane category and country-level capacity to provide climate services 98

FIGURE 3.3. Number of LAC countries by capacity to provide climate services and early warning systems 99

FIGURE 3.4. Poorer households search or receive less warning information against floods 100

FIGURE 3.5. Effects of floods on population 103

FIGURE 3.6. Annual decrease in flood-related mortality 104

FIGURE 3.7. Flood-related deaths in cities protected and not protected by a dam 104

FIGURE 3.8. City-level economic impact of floods and mitigation via critical infrastructure 105

FIGURE 3.9. Mean municipal change in household living standards (HLS) of FONDEN beneficiary municipalities a year after being affected... 117

FIGURE 3.10. Poverty and risk-induced vulnerability to poverty 124

FIGURE 3.11. Percentage of vulnerable households with social assistance 125

FIGURE 3.12. Impact of climate shocks on the country poverty gap, by type of social protection system 128

FIGURE 4.1. Key factors to improve adaptation responses 142

FIGURE 4.2. Model forecasts of Hurricane Beryl's trajectory 148

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Climate hazards data 37

Box 1.2. Poverty measurement and poverty maps in LAC 46

Box 1.3. Exposure to severe flood risk across socioeconomic groups 50

Box 1.4. Summary of attribution studies 59

Box 2.1. Channels through which climate hazards can affect incomes in the short term 73

Box 2.2. The hidden mortality costs of droughts in LAC: Pollution from power swaps 79

Box 2.3. The macroeconomic consequences of materialized climate hazards 84

Box 3.1. Heat waves and inequality (continued) 107

Box 3.2. Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility: Balancing benefits and challenges 117

Box 3.3. Nicaragua's experience with a hybrid insurance approach 119

Box 3.4. Few climate risk financing mechanisms are catered to poor individuals 126

Box 3.5. Paraguay's conditional cash transfer program, Tekoporã, and its asset-building graduation program, Tenonderã 130

Box 4.1. Warning and trust to reduce heat-related mortality 151

Box 4.2. Public asset databases and prototype risk models in LAC 153

Box 4.3. Climate adaptation financing sources in LAC 155

Box 4.4. Unlocking private sector participation in insurance schemes outside LAC 159

Box 4.5. How to judge the welfare benefits of adaptation policies 161

Box 4.6. Fairness in adaptation investments: Weighing the impact on different groups 162

Box 4.7. Anticipatory transfers and funding to adapt safety nets against climate hazards 168

Box 4.8. Reducing drought vulnerability and clientelism in Brazil 170

Maps 9

MAP ES.1. Hazard exposure and poverty rates in LAC ($6.85, 2017 PPP) 21

MAP 1.1. Population exposure to climate hazards 41

MAP 1.2. Climate hazard exposure and poverty rates in LAC (-$6.85, 2017 PPP) 48

MAP 1.3. Distribution of flood hazard and multidimensional poor population in Cali, Colombia 53

MAP 1.4. Poverty rates in areas of high-value ecosystems 56

MAP 3.1. Overlays of monetary poverty and protected areas (as share of total land) in LAC 111

Box Tables 9

TABLE B1.1.1. Severe hazard definitions and sources of data 39

TABLE B3.4.1. Protection of poor individuals mentioned in laws and regulations by type of climate risk financing instrument in LAC circa 2020-24 127

Box Figures 8

FIGURE B1.3.1. Households in high-risk flood areas by wealth quintiles and rural and urban areas, Dominican Republic, 2021 50

FIGURE B2.1.1. An asset-based framework to explain household income generation 73

Box Maps 9

MAP B1.2.1. Poverty rates in LAC using ($6.85, 2017 PPP), 2020-24 47

MAP B1.4.1. Attribution studies on the role of climate change in extreme weather events in LAC 60

MAP B3.1.1. Land surface temperature and SUHI severity, multidimensional poverty, and their overlap for Barranquilla, Colombia,... 107

출판사 책소개

알라딘제공
Climate hazards endanger progress in reducing poverty across Latin America and the Caribbean. New data, past and original research, alongside real-world cases, reveal the communities most at risk. The analysis shows how targeted policies can protect vulnerable families and build lasting resilience.

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