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Title page 1

Contents 6

Foreword 4

Abbreviations and acronyms 10

Key messages 14

Executive Summary 15

1. Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects 17

1.1. Recent developments and assumptions in agricultural markets 18

1.2. Agricultural Commodity Prices, Labour Productivity and Production: projected evolution to 2035 25

1.2.1. Continued long-term decline in real global agricultural commodity prices hinges on sustained investments into... 25

1.2.2. Thematic focus: developments in agricultural labour productivity and income variability 28

1.2.3. Global agricultural production growth led by livestock and middle-income countries 34

1.2.4. Rising global agricultural and fish production, along with a shift towards higher animal production, is set to increase... 35

1.3. Consumption: Projected evolution for 2026-2035 38

1.3.1. Middle- and low-income economies underpin rising consumption of agricultural commodities 38

1.3.2. As incomes grow, dietary patterns are expected to further diversify in middle-income countries over the next decade 39

1.3.3. Growing feed use is underpinned by herd expansions and increasing intensification of livestock and aquaculture production... 40

1.3.4. Emerging economies lead the expansion in biofuel use of primary agricultural commodities 40

1.4. Trade: Projected evolution for 2026-2035 42

1.4.1. Trade flows between surplus and deficit regions are projected to grow 42

1.4.2. Trade plays a key role in ensuring food security and farmer livelihoods 43

1.4.3. Investments are needed in market access for countries, especially low-income countries, to capitalise on growing... 44

References 47

Note 48

2. Cereals 49

2.1. Projection highlights 50

2.2. Current market trends 50

2.3. Market projections 51

2.3.1. Consumption 51

2.3.2. Production 53

2.3.3. Trade 56

2.3.4. Prices 58

2.4. Risks and uncertainties 59

3. Oilseeds and oilseed products 60

3.1. Projection highlights 61

3.2. Current market trends 61

3.3. Market projections 62

3.3.1. Oilseed crush and production of vegetable oils and protein meal 62

3.3.2. Vegetable oil consumption 63

3.3.3. Protein meal consumption 64

3.3.4. Oilseed production 65

3.3.5. Trade 67

3.3.6. Prices 68

3.4. Risks and uncertainties 68

4. Sugar 70

4.1. Projection highlights 71

4.2. Current market trends 71

4.3. Market projections 72

4.3.1. Consumption 72

4.3.2. Production 74

4.3.3. Trade 77

4.3.4. Prices 78

4.4. Risks and uncertainties 79

5. Meat 81

5.1. Projection highlights 82

5.2. Current market trends 82

5.3. Market projections 83

5.3.1. Consumption 83

5.3.2. Production 84

5.3.3. Trade 89

5.3.4. Prices 91

5.4. Risks and uncertainties 92

References 96

6. Dairy and dairy products 99

6.1. Projection highlights 100

6.2. Current market trends 100

6.3. Market projections 101

6.3.1. Consumption 101

6.3.2. Production 102

6.3.3. Trade 104

6.3.4. Prices 106

6.4. Risks and uncertainties 107

References 109

Notes 109

7. Fish and other aquatic products for human consumption 110

7.1. Projection highlights 111

7.2. Current market trends 111

7.3. Market projections 111

7.3.1. Consumption 111

7.3.2. Production 113

7.3.3. Trade 115

7.3.4. Prices 116

7.4. Risks and uncertainties 117

References 119

Note 119

8. Biofuels 120

8.1. Projection highlights 121

8.2. Current market trends 121

8.3. Market projections 122

8.3.1. Consumption and production 122

8.3.2. Trade 127

8.3.3. Prices 128

8.4. Risks and uncertainties 128

Notes 130

9. Cotton 131

9.1. Projection highlights 132

9.2. Current market trends 132

9.3. Market projections 133

9.3.1. Consumption 133

9.3.2. Production 135

9.3.3. Trade 138

9.3.4. Prices 139

9.4. Risks and uncertainties 140

References 141

Notes 141

10. Other products 142

10.1. Roots and tubers 143

10.1.1. Market overview 143

10.1.2. Current market situation 143

10.1.3. Main drivers for projections 143

10.1.4. Projection highlights 144

10.2. Pulses 145

10.2.1. Market overview 145

10.2.2. Current market conditions 146

10.2.3. Main drivers for projections 146

10.2.4. Projection highlights 147

10.3. Bananas and major tropical fruits 147

10.3.1. Bananas 147

10.3.2. Mango, mangosteen and guava 149

10.3.3. Pineapple 150

10.3.4. Avocado 151

10.3.5. Papaya 152

10.3.6. Uncertainties 153

Notes 154

Annex A. Glossary 155

Annex B. Methodology 160

Note 164

Tables 9

Table 2.1. Rice per capita food consumption by region 52

Figures 7

Figure 1.1. Market conditions for key commodities 19

Figure 1.2. Annual GDP per capita and population growth rates 21

Figure 1.3. Deviations from baseline in real international agricultural commodity prices 23

Figure 1.4. Deviations from baseline in fertiliser (NPK) use (panel a) and cereals production (panel b) 24

Figure 1.5. Deviations from baseline in basic food expenditures 25

Figure 1.6. Long-term evolution of commodity prices, in real terms 26

Figure 1.7. Average annual yield growth of major commodities 27

Figure 1.8. Share of employment in agriculture above 55 years old 29

Figure 1.9. Average agricultural labour productivity 31

Figure 1.10. Share of agriculture in overall gross domestic product versus agricultural labour productivity 33

Figure 1.11. Variability of real gross agricultural income per worker 34

Figure 1.12. Trends in global agricultural production 35

Figure 1.13. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from crop and livestock production by activity 37

Figure 1.14. Use of agricultural commodities by type and income group 38

Figure 1.15. Projected evolution of dietary patterns 39

Figure 1.16. Annual changes in protein output and feed intake per productive animal unit in non-ruminant systems 40

Figure 1.17. Share of biofuel and other industrial uses in total use of agricultural commodities 41

Figure 1.18. Net agricultural trade of main agricultural commodities by region, in constant value 42

Figure 1.19. Trade as a share of total production and consumption by region, in calorie equivalents 44

Figure 1.20. Trade intensity and market access 45

Figure 2.1. Global use of cereals in 2035 51

Figure 2.2. Global cereal demand concentration in 2035 52

Figure 2.3. Regional cereal yields 54

Figure 2.4. Global cereal production concentration in 2035 55

Figure 2.5. Cereal trade as a percentage of production and consumption 57

Figure 2.6. Global cereal trade concentration in 2035 57

Figure 2.7. World cereal prices 59

Figure 3.1. Oilseed crush by country or region 62

Figure 3.2. Per capita food consumption of vegetable oil in selected countries 64

Figure 3.3. Average annual growth in protein meal consumption and animal production (2026-2035) 65

Figure 3.4. Average annual change in harvested area for selected crops 66

Figure 3.5. Exports of oilseeds and oilseed products by country 67

Figure 3.6. Evolution of world oilseed prices 68

Figure 3.7. Average annual yield growth for palm oil and oilseeds 69

Figure 4.1. Trends in total consumption of caloric sweeteners 73

Figure 4.2. Main sugar-producing countries/regions classified by sugar crop 75

Figure 4.3. Evolution of world sugar crop allocation and yields 77

Figure 4.4. Evolution of raw and white sugar imports by region 78

Figure 4.5. Evolution of world sugar prices 79

Figure 5.1. Meat consumption growth 83

Figure 5.2. Carcass weight increase, 2035 vs. base period 86

Figure 5.3. Meat-related emissions growth 87

Figure 5.4. Automation in meat processing by species and processing stage 88

Figure 5.5. Global meat exports to 2035 90

Figure 5.6. Price trends for ruminant and non-ruminant meats 92

Figure 6.1. Per capita consumption of processed and fresh dairy products in milk solids 101

Figure 6.2. Per capita consumption of cheese in selected regions 102

Figure 6.3. Milk production and yield in selected countries and regions 103

Figure 6.4. Annual changes in inventories of dairy herd and yields between 2026 and 2035 104

Figure 6.5. Exports of dairy products by region 105

Figure 6.6. Imports of dairy products by region 106

Figure 6.7. Dairy product prices 107

Figure 7.1. Per capita consumption of fish and other aquatic animal products by region 112

Figure 7.2. World capture fisheries and aquaculture production of aquatic animals 113

Figure 7.3. World aquaculture production of aquatic animals by main species group 114

Figure 7.4. Import and export volumes of fish and other aquatic animal products for human consumption, by region 115

Figure 7.5. World fish and other aquatic animal product prices 117

Figure 8.1. Biofuel demand trends in major regions, 2035 vs. base period 2023-25 122

Figure 8.2. Regional contribution of growth in biofuel consumption, 2035 vs. base period 2023-2025 123

Figure 8.3. World biofuel production from different feedstocks 123

Figure 8.4. Biofuel trade dominated by a few global players 127

Figure 8.5. The evolution of biofuel prices and biofuel feedstock prices 128

Figure 9.1. Historical trends in the consumption of textile fibres 134

Figure 9.2. Cotton mill consumption by region 135

Figure 9.3. Global players in cotton markets in 2035 136

Figure 9.4. Cotton yields and area harvested in major producing countries 136

Figure 9.5. Evolution of global sustainable and organic cotton 138

Figure 9.6. Trade as a percentage of cotton production and mill consumption 139

Figure 9.7. World cotton price and stock-to-use ratio 140

Figure 10.1. Global players in roots and tubers markets in 2035 144

Figure 10.2. Per capita food consumption of pulses per continent 146

Figure 10.3. World banana outlook: Exports of bananas by the four major Latin American and Caribbean exporters 149

Figure 10.4. World major tropical fruit outlook: Global exports of the four major tropical fruits 153

Boxes 9

Box 1.1. Macroeconomic assumptions and policy environment 21

Box 1.2. Adverse Scenario: Implications for the Agrifood Outlook in 2026-2027 22

Box 1.3. The OECD Global Forum on Agriculture 2025: Attracting New Farmers for the Future of Agriculture 29

Box 1.4. Key features of women's participation in agrifood markets and trade 46

Box 5.1. Artificial intelligence applications in meat production and processing 87

Box 5.2. New World screwworm outbreak in Mexico: An illustrative scenario of potential market impacts 93

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