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Title page 1

Contents 7

Foreword 13

Acknowledgments 15

About the Authors 17

Key Messages 20

Executive Summary 23

Abbreviations 36

PART 1 38

1. A Framework to Assess Infrastructure Capital Investment 39

KEY MESSAGES 39

INTRODUCTION 40

THE INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGE: DEFINING PRIORITIES 41

THE FRAMEWORK OF INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT 44

THE DATA 47

ANNEX 1A. BACKGROUND PAPERS AND DATA SUMMARY TABLE 48

NOTES 49

REFERENCES 50

2. A World of Unequal Endowments 52

KEY MESSAGES 52

INTRODUCTION 53

PHYSICAL CAPITAL STOCKS AND COUNTRY INCOME 53

CAPITAL STOCKS AS A SHARE OF GDP 57

THE SHIFTING COMPOSITION OF INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL ALONG THE DEVELOPMENT PATH 64

ANNEX 2A. COMPARISON TO OTHER CAPITAL STOCK MEASURES 66

NOTE 67

REFERENCE 67

3. Social Rates of Return and Efficiency Ratios 68

KEY MESSAGES 68

INTRODUCTION 69

SOCIAL RATES OF RETURN AND EFFICIENCY RATIOS: ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION 70

PRIORITIZATION AND COMPLEMENTARITY 81

SOCIAL RATES OF RETURN AND EFFICIENCY RATIOS: DIGITAL 84

FUTURE WORK 87

ANNEX 3A. ADDITIONAL SOCIAL RATES OF RETURN AND EFFICIENCY RATIOS RESULTS 88

NOTES 93

REFERENCES 93

Spotlight 3.1. Zooming in on Specific Country Cases 95

PART 2 100

4. Mapping Infrastructure Physical Stocks 101

KEY MESSAGES 101

INTRODUCTION 101

ENERGY 102

TRANSPORTATION 109

DIGITAL 111

ANNEX 4A. DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY FOR MAPPING PHYSICAL STOCKS 121

ANNEX 4B. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY FOR TRANSPORTATION 122

ANNEX 4C. ESTIMATION OF PHYSICAL SITES FROM MOBILE CELLS DATA 123

NOTES 124

REFERENCES 125

5. Unit Replacement Costs 126

KEY MESSAGES 126

INTRODUCTION 127

OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY 128

ENERGY 129

TRANSPORTATION 134

DIGITAL 141

ANNEX 5A. DATA AND METHODOLOGY FOR UNIT COST ESTIMATION 147

ANNEX 5B. POWER GENERATION: SOURCE AND LEVEL OF DISAGGREGATED INFORMATION BY TECHNOLOGY 149

NOTES 149

REFERENCES 149

6. Infrastructure Capital Stocks 151

KEY MESSAGES 151

INTRODUCTION 152

METHODOLOGY 152

ENERGY 154

TRANSPORTATION 158

DIGITAL 161

NOTES 165

REFERENCES 166

7. Measuring Benefits 167

KEY MESSAGES 167

THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ART 168

META-ANALYSIS RESULTS 169

ANNEX 7A. PAPERS USED IN THE ANALYSIS 174

NOTES 181

REFERENCES 181

Spotlight 7.1. Highways and Local Growth: A Comparative Perspective 182

Spotlight 7.2. Keeping the Lights On: A Direct Measure of the Benefits of Power Sector Investment 189

Tables 11

TABLE 1.1. Infrastructure: IBRD + IDA commitments, FY20-FY25 44

TABLE 3.1. Social rates of returns and infrastructure efficiency ratios, by region 76

TABLE 3.2. Comparing energy and transportation efficiency ratios, by region 80

TABLE 3.3. Digital social rates of returns and efficiency ratios, by region 87

TABLE 7.1. Number of observations and studies used in the estimations 171

TABLE 7.2. Meta-analysis estimates, by sector and country development level 171

TABLE 7.3. Meta-analysis estimates, by sector, selected regions 173

Figures 9

FIGURE ES.1. Physical infrastructure stocks per capita versus GDP per capita, by type of infrastructure 25

FIGURE ES.2. Shares of total infrastructure capital, by sector and income decile 28

FIGURE ES.3. Total infrastructure stocks over GDP, by sector and region 29

FIGURE ES.4. Energy infrastructure efficiency ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 31

FIGURE ES.5. Transportation infrastructure efficiency ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 31

FIGURE ES.6. Optimal allocation of 10 percent of GDP investment between energy and transportation, by region and level of energy investment 34

FIGURE 1.1. Distribution of estimated elasticities from the literature 43

FIGURE 2.1. Physical infrastructure stocks per capita versus GDP per capita, by type of infrastructure 54

FIGURE 2.2. Distribution of power generation capacity, by region and generation technology 55

FIGURE 2.3. Trends in digital infrastructure expansion, by region and type of infrastructure, 2000-25 58

FIGURE 2.4. Energy capital-output ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 60

FIGURE 2.5. Digital capital-output ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 61

FIGURE 2.6. Transportation capital-output ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 62

FIGURE 2.7. Shares of total infrastructure capital, by sector and income decile 64

FIGURE 2.8. Infrastructure capital-output ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 65

FIGURE 2.9. Infrastructure capital-output ratio, by sector and region 65

FIGURE 3.1. Transportation social rates of return versus GDP per capita, by region 71

FIGURE 3.2. Energy social rates of return versus GDP per capita, by region 71

FIGURE 3.3. Energy infrastructure efficiency ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 75

FIGURE 3.4. Transportation infrastructure efficiency ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 75

FIGURE 3.5. Optimal allocation of 10 percent of GDP investment between energy and transportation 82

FIGURE 3.6. Digital social rate of return versus GDP per capita, by region 85

FIGURE 3.7. Digital efficiency ratio versus GDP per capita, by region 85

FIGURE 4.1. On-grid and off-grid electric power system architecture 103

FIGURE 4.2. Per capita power generation capacity, by region 105

FIGURE 4.3. Distribution of power generation capacity, by region and generation technology 105

FIGURE 4.4. Architecture of the digital ecosystem 113

FIGURE 4.5. Trends in digital infrastructure expansion, by region and type of infrastructure, 2000-25 115

FIGURE 4.6. Number of IXPs, by region and capacity 117

FIGURE 4.7. Terrestrial fiber density and fixed download speed, by region 117

FIGURE 4.8. Countries with submarine cable landing points, by income level 118

FIGURE 5.1. Unit cost of fossil and nuclear technologies, by type of technology, selected countries and regions 130

FIGURE 5.2. Installed unit cost of selected renewable technologies, by year 132

FIGURE 5.3. Installed cost of hydro power, 2016-23 133

FIGURE 5.4. Unit cost for transmission lines, selected regions and subregions 134

FIGURE 5.5. Count and unit cost of linear transportation projects, by income group 137

FIGURE 5.6. Unit cost of roads, by project characteristics 138

FIGURE 5.7. Unit cost of railways, by project characteristics 139

FIGURE 5.8. Modeling results for the unit cost of roads, by project characteristics, income level, and region 140

FIGURE 5.9. Modeling results for the unit cost of railways, by project characteristics, income level, and region 141

FIGURE 5.10. Costs of cell towers, by region 142

FIGURE 5.11. Costs of data centers, by country income level 144

FIGURE 5.12. Costs of terrestrial FOC, by region 145

FIGURE 5.13. Costs of submarine cables, by decade 146

FIGURE 6.1. Energy capital assets, by region 155

FIGURE 6.2. Energy capital assets per capita, by region 156

FIGURE 6.3. Transportation capital assets, by region 160

FIGURE 6.4. Transportation capital assets per capita, by region 160

FIGURE 6.5. Digital capital assets, by region and component 163

FIGURE 6.6. Digital capital assets per capita, by region and component 164

Boxes 9

BOX 2.1. Adjusting for countries' fundamental characteristics: Residualized capital-output ratio 62

BOX 3.1. Estimating the country-specific cost of borrowing 72

BOX 3.2. Determinants of the dispersion of efficiency ratios 77

BOX 3.3. Determining optimal investment allocation 83

BOX 5.1. Power generation unit cost: Benchmarking with machine learning validation 131

BOX 5.2. Transportation sector unit cost: Framework and empirical modeling 135

BOX 6.1. Estimating capital depreciation 152

BOX 7.1. A meta-analysis approach to estimating infrastructure average impacts 170

Maps 11

MAP ES.1. Subnational generation capacity (MW), Brazil 26

MAP ES.2. Subnational generation capacity (MW), Nigeria 26

MAP ES.3. Total transportation capital stock, by country 27

MAP 2.1. Global distribution of transmission and distribution lines 55

MAP 2.2. Global distribution of transportation infrastructure 56

MAP 2.3. Digital infrastructure expansion, selected Asian economies, 2015 versus 2025 59

MAP 4.1. Global distribution of transmission and distribution lines 106

MAP 4.2. Subnational generation capacity (MW), Brazil and Nigeria 107

MAP 4.3. Subnational transmission and distribution lines (km), Brazil and Nigeria 108

MAP 4.4. Global distribution of line transportation infrastructure, roads and railways 110

MAP 4.5. Subnational distribution of line transportation infrastructure, Dominican Republic and Uzbekistan 112

MAP 4.6. Digital infrastructure in Africa, by type of technology, 2025 119

MAP 4.7. Expansion of digital infrastructure in Côte D'Ivoire, 2010 versus 2025 120

MAP 6.1. Spatial distribution of energy capital assets 155

MAP 6.2. Subnational-level energy capital assets, Argentina and Brazil, 2024 157

MAP 6.3. Spatial distribution of transportation capital assets 159

MAP 6.4. Subnational distribution of transportation physical and capital assets at the state level, Nigeria 161

MAP 6.5. Subnational distribution of road capital assets per capita value at the district level, Dominican Republic and Haiti 162

MAP 6.6. Spatial distribution of digital capital assets 162

MAP 6.7. Subnational distribution of digital capital assets, Ecuador 165

Box Tables 11

TABLE B3.2.1. Variance decomposition of the efficiency ratio, by sector 77

Box Figures 9

FIGURE B2.1.1. Residualized capital-output ratio versus GDP per capita, by sector 63

FIGURE B3.1.1. Cost of borrowing versus GDP per capita, by region 74

FIGURE B3.2.1. Efficiency ratios: Generation costs, capital stocks, and borrowing costs 79

Spotlight Tables 11

TABLE S7.1.1. Highway impact elasticities, selected countries 187

Spotlight Figures 11

FIGURE S7.1.1. Trends of roads and highways, by region, 2014-25 183

FIGURE S7.1.2. Illustration of the event study based on SDID estimation, selected countries 185

FIGURE S7.2.1. Direct benefit implied output elasticities versus income, by region 190

FIGURE S7.2.2. Direct benefit implied output elasticities versus meta-analysis estimates, by region 191

Spotlight Maps 11

MAP S3.1.1. The roads of Hispaniola 97

MAP S7.1.1. Map of gridded global highways, 0.25-degree resolution, 2025 184

Annex Tables 11

TABLE 1A.1. Summary of data provided by the report 49

TABLE 3A.1. Social rates of return and efficiency ratios, by economy 88

TABLE 4A.1. Overview of data sources and methodology by sector 121

TABLE 4B.1. OSM tags and values used to filter roads and railroads 122

Annex Figures 10

FIGURE 2A.1. Public capital versus total infrastructure stocks, by region 66

FIGURE 2A.2. Capital stocks versus total infrastructure depreciated capital, by region 67

FIGURE 3A.1. Efficiency ratios for energy and transportation, with regional elasticities, selected regions 93

출판사 책소개

알라딘제공
Infrastructure is fundamental to development. Services provided by the energy, transport, and digital sectors enable access to jobs, economic opportunities, and essential services such as health and education, while improving the affordability and availability of goods and services. Beyond these direct effects, infrastructure generates important indirect benefits through urban agglomeration economies, including knowledge spillovers, innovation, positive externalities in education and health, and greater resilience to economic and environmental shocks. When infrastructure is available, of good quality, and affordable, it boosts productivity and economic growth and plays a central role in poverty reduction. This report presents the first exhaustive global database on physical infrastructure assets, covering energy generation capacity, transmission lines, roads, railways, and digital infrastructure such as cell towers, data centers, and fiber-optic cables. Assets are geolocated at detailed administrative levels, enabling fine-grained spatial analysis of infrastructure gaps. The resulting dataset supports a comprehensive global assessment of infrastructure stocks, costs, and social returns across more than 150 countries. Building on this evidence, the report develops a policy framework to guide infrastructure investmentmdecisions. The framework allows policy makers to identify infrastructure gaps and prioritize investments under resource constraints. It estimates social rates of return at the country-sector level and compares them with countries' borrowing costs to derive efficiency ratios. This approach helps assess whether investment in a given sector is justified and how returns compare across sectors. The results indicate particularly high social returns to transport investments in developing countries, while returns in the energy sector display more heterogeneous patterns. Efficiency ratios suggest that, in most countries, investment opportunities in energy, transport, and digital infrastructure exceed borrowing costs, pointing to widespread underinvestment and the potential for a "big push," especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. In terms of prioritization, transport investments tend to yield higher efficiency ratios in regions with lower capital stocks, whereas energy investments dominate in richer regions with more developed infrastructure. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of mixed investment strategies that leverage complementarities across infrastructure sectors.

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