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https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099063026112537891
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Title page 1
Contents 8
Acknowledgments 15
Executive Summary 18
Abbreviations 32
Chapter 1. Improving Food and Nutrition Security and Creating More and Better Jobs: From Shared Regional Challenge to Tailored Solutions 34
FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY HAS BEEN DETERIORATING ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN OVER... 34
THE FUTURE OF THE REGION'S FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY DEPENDS ON HOW ITS AGRIFOOD SYSTEMS PERFORM AND ON THE NUMBER OF... 38
AN AGRIFOOD SYSTEM APPROACH TO MOVE FROM REGIONAL CHALLENGES TO TAILORED SOLUTIONS 39
NOTES 43
REFERENCES 43
Chapter 2. The Future of Food Demand: MENAAP Needs More and Better Food 44
BEYOND FOOD AVAILABILITY, ACCESS TO SAFE AND HEALTHY FOOD MATTERS FOR FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 44
ECONOMIC ACCESS TO SAFE AND HEALTHY FOOD IS WORSENING IN MENAAP DUE TO FOOD PRICE INFLATION AND STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITIES 49
BEYOND PRICES, LESS HEALTHY FOOD CHOICES FUEL MALNUTRITION AND OBESITY IN THE REGION 53
REDUCING FOOD LOSS AND WASTE IS A FAST, COST-EFFECTIVE LEVER TO IMPROVE FOOD AVAILABILITY, RESOURCE EFFICIENCY, AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY 55
BY 2050, RISING POPULATION AND SHIFTING DIETARY PATTERNS WILL FURTHER INCREASE FOOD DEMAND BY TWO-THIRDS 57
POLICIES SHAPE FOOD DEMAND AND CAN IMPROVE THE FUTURE FOOD ENVIRONMENT 58
REFERENCES 63
Chapter 3. The Future of Agricultural Production: Producing More and Better Food with Less Water 66
MENAAP PRODUCES A LITTLE LESS THAN TWO-THIRDS OF ITS TOTAL CALORIE REQUIREMENTS DOMESTICALLY, BUT THIS SHARE IS DECLINING 66
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IS EXPANDING, BUT INVESTMENT AND STABILITY ARE NEEDED TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM 69
WATER IS THE MOST CRITICAL CONSTRAINT ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 74
CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE MAIN THREAT TO AGRICULTURE GROWTH, AMPLIFIED BY ALREADY-FRAGILE, UNSUSTAINABLY MANAGED WATER... 76
SOLUTIONS TO PRODUCE MORE WITHIN ECOLOGICAL BOUNDARIES EXIST, BUT INNOVATION NEEDS TO BE SUSTAINED AND SCALED UP 80
REPURPOSING PRODUCER AND CONSUMER SUBSIDIES IS NEEDED FOR BETTER DOMESTIC FOOD SUPPLY 84
THE MID- TO LONG-TERM DOMESTIC FOOD SUPPLY DEPENDS ON RETHINKING HOW NATURAL RESOURCES ARE MANAGED 88
NOTE 90
REFERENCES 90
Chapter 4. Trade Will Remain Central to Food and Nutrition Security and Agrifood Sector Job Opportunities 95
MENAAP COUNTRIES ARE AND WILL REMAIN NET FOOD IMPORTERS 95
HIGH RELIANCE ON IMPORTS BRINGS SOME RISKS BUT ALSO EASES WATER CONSTRAINTS, ALLOWING FOR GREATER FOCUS ON COMPETITIVE... 97
CURRENT TRADE POLICIES LIMIT THE EXPOSURE OF CONSUMERS TO PRICE SHOCKS BUT ALSO LIMIT THE EFFICIENCY OF PRICE SIGNAL TRANSMISSION... 101
GOOD POLICY CAN FOSTER FOOD TRADE WITHOUT DISTORTIONS, LEVERAGE STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVES, AND CAREFULLY BALANCE TRADE-OFFS... 103
NOTES 104
REFERENCES 105
Chapter 5. Agribusiness for Jobs and Food and Nutrition Security 106
THE AFS REMAINS A KEY EMPLOYER IN THE REGION, WITH JOB GROWTH STRONGEST IN OFF-FARM JOBS AND GOOD EXAMPLES OF RISING... 106
FORMAL AGRIBUSINESS PROVIDES 3 MILLION OFF-FARM JOBS IN THE REGION, BUT HOUSEHOLD ENTERPRISES AND SELF-EMPLOYMENT ARE... 109
ON-FARM JOBS REMAIN POORLY PAID, THOUGH PRODUCTIVITY IS RISING; OFF-FARM AFS JOBS ARE COMPETITIVE WITH OTHER WAGE JOBS 111
POPULAR VIEWS OF AFS JOBS ARE MORE POSITIVE THAN IS OFTEN ASSUMED 113
FOR MORE AND BETTER AFS JOBS, POLICIES MUST SUPPORT AGRIBUSINESS FIRMS AND CONNECT MORE AGRIFOOD WORKERS TO THE MARKET 116
NOTES 122
REFERENCES 122
Chapter 6. Protecting Food and Nutrition Security through Conflict and Recovery 124
WAR-TORN AND FRAGILE ECONOMIES ARE DRIVING ESCALATING HUNGER IN MENAAP 124
FOOD INSECURITY IS BOTH A CAUSE AND A CONSEQUENCE OF CONFLICT AND FRAGILITY 126
CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER SCARCITY HEIGHTEN FOOD INSECURITY AND CONFLICT RISKS 128
CONTEXT MATTERS: THERE IS NO SINGLE CONFLICT AND FRAGILITY NARRATIVE IN MENAAP 129
BUILDING STRONGER FOOD SYSTEMS FOR BETTER FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN FRAGILITY-, CONFLICT-, AND VIOLENCE-AFFECTED AREAS 132
PROJECTS IN PRACTICE: CASE STUDIES OF INTERVENTIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY 134
NOTES 137
REFERENCES 138
Chapter 7. Looking Ahead: Bold Pathways to Promote Food and Nutrition Security and Agrifood Jobs in MENAAP 140
THE PRECONDITIONS FOR GREATER FOOD SECURITY ARE STABILITY, SUSTAINABILITY, AND A GOOD BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 140
SMARTER CONSUMER POLICY TOOLS CAN HELP SHAPE FOOD DEMAND AND IMPROVE NUTRITION 142
SCALING UP INVESTMENT IN RESEARCH AND THE ADOPTION OF INNOVATIONS IS CENTRAL TO FUTURE SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT DOMESTIC... 144
GROWTH OF THE AGRIFOOD SYSTEM DEPENDS ON AMBITIOUS REFORMS AND INVESTMENT TO BETTER MANAGE SCARCE WATER 146
FACILITATING TRADE CAN CONTRIBUTE EVEN MORE TO FOOD SECURITY AND JOBS 148
A BETTER BUSINESS CLIMATE IS PIVOTAL TO INCREASING AFS JOBS AND ATTRACTING THE FINANCING NEEDED FOR AMBITIOUS INVESTMENT 151
FCV ECONOMIES NEED BOTH URGENT ACTION TO REDUCE HUNGER AND INVESTMENT TO MAINTAIN AND BUILD THE AFS 153
NOTES 155
REFERENCES 155
Conclusion 156
AN ACTIONABLE ROADMAP TOWARD FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY AND MORE AND BETTER JOBS 156
NOTES 164
REFERENCES 165
Appendix A. Conceptual Framework, Methodology, and Stakeholder Engagement 166
Appendix B. Selected Methods and Data Sources 175
FIGURE ES.1. Evolution of Different Dimensions of Food and Nutrition Security in MENAAP 19
FIGURE ES.2. Slowing Trends in the Region's Production of Cereals and Fruits and Vegetables 22
FIGURE ES.3. Historical and Projected Climatology of the Annual SPEI Drought Index 24
FIGURE ES.4. Current Regional Virtual Water Net Trade Balance and Projected Net Food Trade 25
FIGURE ES.5. Share of Agrifood System Employment Today and Modeled Additional Equivalent Jobs by 2050 28
FIGURE ES.6. Top Three Priorities to Improve Food and Nutrition Security and Create More and Better Jobs Across MENAAP 31
FIGURE 1.1. Regional Food Insecurity Levels 35
FIGURE 1.2. Adverse Shifts in Food Security Categories in MENAAP, 2015-25 35
FIGURE 1.3. MENAAP Food and Nutrition Security: A Concern across Diverse Economies 37
FIGURE 2.1. Average Dietary Energy Supply Adequacy in MENAAP, 2022-24 45
FIGURE 2.2. Prevalence of Stunting versus Economic Development (Log of GDP per Capita) in MENAAP and the Global Context 46
FIGURE 2.3. Minimum Dietary Diversity for Children in MENAAP, 2017-23 47
FIGURE 2.4. Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women in MENAAP, 2021-23 48
FIGURE 2.5. Double Burden Based on Overweight and Obesity and Stunting in MENAAP, 2019-22 48
FIGURE 2.6. Share of Population Unable to Afford a Healthy Diet in MENAAP in 2024 50
FIGURE 2.7. Household Income Distribution and Ability to Afford a Healthy Diet, Arab Republic of Egypt and Pakistan, 2024 51
FIGURE 2.8. Diversity of Diets Across MENAAP: Share of Food Groups in Total Calorie Consumption, 2021-23 Averages 54
FIGURE 2.9. Comparison of MENAAP Food Consumption to EAT-Lancet Recommendations per Food Category 55
FIGURE 2.10. Projected Change in MENAAP's per Capita Consumption per Food Category, 2020-50 58
FIGURE 2.11. Projected Change in MENAAP's Diet, 2020-50 58
FIGURE 2.12. Food Subsidy Spending as Share of GDP, Middle East and North Africa, 2010-23 59
FIGURE 3.1. Average Domestic Food Supply Across the Region, 2021-23 67
FIGURE 3.2. Food Supply by Origin, 2021-23 68
FIGURE 3.3. Declining Share of Domestically Produced Calories in MENAAP, Except in Pakistan, 1990-92 versus 2020-22 69
FIGURE 3.4. Rising Cereal Production in all MENAAP Countries, Except GCC 70
FIGURE 3.5. Strong Growth in Fruit and Vegetable Production in MENA MICs 71
FIGURE 3.6. Livestock Production 72
FIGURE 3.7. Production from Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture 73
FIGURE 3.8. Renewable Water Availability per Capita, 2000-50 74
FIGURE 3.9. Rainfed and Irrigated Production of Wheat and Vegetables in Areas Projected to Experience Mean Conditions Drier Than SPEI -1.5... 78
FIGURE 3.10. Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing Expenditures as Share of Total Expenditures in MENAAP 86
FIGURE 3.11. Average Annual Agriculture Expenditures as Share of the Sector Value Added, 2022-23 87
FIGURE 4.1. Average Regional Net Food Imports as Share of GDP, 2019-22, and Changes between 2007-10 and 2019-22 97
FIGURE 4.2. Net Wheat Import-to-Consumption Ratio versus Wheat Import Concentration, Average, 2019-22 98
FIGURE 4.3. Net Food Imports-to-GDP Ratio versus Current Account Balance: Movement Between 2007-10 and 2019-22 99
FIGURE 4.4. Virtual Water Net Trade Balance, by Economy and by Food Product, 2019 100
FIGURE 5.1. Regional Overview of the Importance of Agrifood as a Share of Total Employment in 2023 107
FIGURE 5.2. Regional Composition of AFS Employment 111
FIGURE 5.3. Perceptions of AFS Jobs in the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia 114
FIGURE 5.4. Correlates of Interest in AFS Work Among Survey Respondents Not Currently or Previously Active in the Sector 115
FIGURE 5.5. Main Business Obstacles Reported by Formal Businesses 120
FIGURE 6.1. Prevalence of Undernourishment Before and After Conflict Onset 129
FIGURE 6.2. Normalized Real Value Added in Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry Before and After Conflict Onset 130
FIGURE 6.3. Value of Food Imports Relative to All Exports Before and After Conflict Onset 131
FIGURE 6.4. Consumer Prices (Food Indices) in Conflict-Affected Economies 132
FIGURE 7.1. Spending on Agricultural Support and Consumer Food Subsidies as Percentage of GDP, 2022-23 143
FIGURE 7.2. Modeled Change in Output, 2020-50 145
FIGURE 7.3. Modeled Trends in Net Trade in Reference Scenario versus Investment Scenario 149
FIGURE 7.4. Modeled Net Food Exports in Reference Scenario versus Investment Scenario 150
FIGURE 7.5. Modeled Additional Equivalent Jobs from AFS Investment with Export Promotion, Compared to Business-as-Usual Activities, 2050 152
FIGURE 7.6. Comparative Long-Term AFS Development in MENA MICs and FCV-Affected Economies 154
FIGURE C.1. The AgriConnect Framework 158
FIGURE C.2. Top Three Priority Action Areas, by MENAAP Subregion 159
Boxes 11
BOX 1.1. The AgriConnect Approach to Transforming Smallholder Farming, Creating Jobs, and Strengthening Food Security in MENAAP 41
BOX 2.1. How Gradual Reform Can Deliver Large Fiscal Gains: Evidence from Tunisia's Grain Sector 61
BOX 3.1. Blended Finance to Unlock Agrifood Innovation-IFC's Inclusive Agritech Facility in India 82
BOX 5.1. Private Sector as Seed System Builder: AlMoiz Group's Experience in Pakistan 117
BOX 6.1. Harnessing Machine Learning: Delivering Timely Data to Tackle Food Insecurity 125
BOX 6.2. Cost of War for Agricultural Production and Immediate Food Security in Lebanon and the West Bank and Gaza 127
BOX 6.3. The Republic of Yemen: A History of Cash Aid and Inflation 134
BOX 6.4. Lebanon: Stabilizing Wheat Availability and Access to Protect the Social Contract 137
FIGURE B6.3.1. Historical Percentage of Heightened and Critical Risk Alerts 135
FIGURE B6.3.2. Increase in Cropland in the Republic of Yemen, 2018-23 136
FIGURE A.1. Agrifood System Linkages with Society, Economy, Climate, and the Environment 168
FIGURE A.2. Policy Stress-Testing Approach of the Report: Three Policy Pathways Are Tested Across Three Development Scenarios 170
FIGURE A.3. IMPACT Modeling Framework and Interactions 171
출판사 책소개
Food security is a major concern for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP). Across the region, food insecurity and malnutrition are rising at a pace not seen in recent decades, affecting high-income, middle-income, and conflict-affected countries alike. While one in six MENAAP residents lacks secure access to food, the region simultaneously records some of the highest rates of overweight and obesity in the world. Mounting pressures from conflict, water scarcity, climate shocks, and economic volatility make the need for food system transformation both urgent and unavoidable. Yet transformation also presents a crucial opportunity. MENAAP's agrifood systems are already a major engine of employment, and they hold untapped potential for creating better, more inclusive jobs, particularly in rural areas and for women and youth. This report argues that confronting the region's food security crisis and its chronic jobs challenge goes hand-in-hand. Drawing on regional data, original quantitative modeling, new survey evidence, and country case studies, the report examines the full complexity of the challenge: the evolution of food demand, the constraints on domestic production under climate change and severe water scarcity, trade management, the devastating impact of conflict on food systems, and the role of the private sector in driving sustainable change as well as the potential for job creation. The central message is one of possibility. Substantial gains in food security and job quality are within reach, but they require greater ambition in both investment and policymaking. The report offers governments a concrete policy roadmap showing how coordinated, cross-sectoral reforms can simultaneously strengthen food and nutrition security and unlock the potential for more and better jobs across the agrifood system.
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