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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Basic statistics of Korea, 2024 8

Executive summary 9

1. Future-proofing macroeconomic policies 18

1.1. After decades of strong performance, structural challenges remain 19

1.2. The energy price shock is clouding the economic outlook 20

1.2.1. Inflation pressures were weak before the energy crisis 22

1.2.2. Fiscal policy is supportive 24

1.2.3. The labour market holds up, but with some weak spots 24

1.2.4. Growth is projected to strengthen 25

1.3. Structural policies could improve macroeconomic outcomes 27

1.3.1. Complement macroprudential tools to lift housing supply responsiveness 29

1.3.2. Ageing pressures call for structural reforms and a prudent fiscal framework 33

1.3.3. Steps are taken to safeguard trade and attract foreign investment 37

Annex 1.A. Economic and political developments in North Korea 44

References 49

2. Tax reform for growth and revenue 52

2.1. Tax reform is central to achieving future growth and fiscal sustainability 53

2.2. Converging corporate income tax rates would improve efficiency 55

2.3. A large share of workers does not pay personal income tax 56

2.4. Consumption taxes constitute a low share of overall revenue 58

2.5. Environmental taxes and emissions trading can be further developed 61

2.6. Recurrent property taxes should play a more prominent role 64

References 68

3. Smarting up education and life-long learning 71

3.1. Adult skills decline fast by age in Korea 72

3.2. Initial education could lay stronger foundations for adult learning 75

3.2.1. High-stake exams lead to intensive tutoring 75

3.2.2. An increasing supply of tertiary degrees is not matched by increased quality 78

3.2.3. High-stakes tests to enter employment come with drawbacks 80

3.3. Reform could support investments in updating and maintaining workers' skills 81

3.3.1. Labour market institutions hold back private incentives to invest in skills 83

3.3.2. Realising social returns of investments in skills require coordination 85

References 88

4. Reshaping the geography of opportunity 91

4.1. Demographic decline and regional divergence reinforce each other 92

4.2. Improving framework conditions in remote areas 100

4.2.1. Ensuring equitable access to services 100

4.2.2. Harnessing digitalisation and regulatory flexibility 104

4.2.3. Aligning fiscal frameworks with local development needs 109

4.3. Revitalising regional hubs 112

4.3.1. Consolidating place-based development support 113

4.3.2. Integrating universities into regional ecosystems 115

4.3.3. Leveraging zone-based policies 118

4.4. Adapting spatial planning and housing policies 122

4.4.1. Decentralising planning authority 122

4.4.2. Using land value capture to rebalance development incentives across regions 123

4.4.3. Making housing markets more efficient 125

References 128

Tables 7

Table 1. Growth is recovering 12

Table 1.1. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 26

Table 1.2. Low-probability events that could lead to major changes in the outlook 27

Table 1.3. Recent macroprudential policy developments 31

Table 1.4. Near- and long-term measures to put public finances on a prudent fiscal path 35

Table 1.5. Structural reforms can boost growth and further sustain public finances 36

Table 1.6. Recommendations to support growth and fiscal sustainability 43

Table 2.1. A lower tax revenue-to-GDP ratio than the OECD average, 2024 53

Table 2.2. Korea has a total of 25 different types of taxes 53

Table 2.3. Tax Expenditures represent nearly 3% of GDP 54

Table 2.4. Korea's corporate income tax has four brackets 55

Table 2.5. Various tax expenditures apply to the corporate income tax 55

Table 2.6. Personal income tax rate (global income) 57

Table 2.7. Korea's Earned Income Tax Credit features a long phase-out range 58

Table 2.8. Past recommendations on emissions pricing and actions taken 64

Table 2.9. CREHT rate increases with the number of homes owned 65

Table 3.1. Past recommendations to improve the labour market and actions taken 84

Table 3.2. Recommendations to strengthen life-long learning 87

Table 4.1. Estimated intergenerational earnings elasticity in Korea 96

Table 4.2. Past recommendations to ensure equal access to services 104

Table 4.3. Past recommendations to reduce regulatory burdens 109

Table 4.4. Fiscal equalisation instruments in Korea 111

Table 4.5. Past recommendations to harness the use of industrial policy 113

Table 4.6. Consolidation of past government initiatives into the RISE1 programme 117

Table 4.7. Past recommendations to support regional labour markets 118

Table 4.8. Special economic zones in Korea 121

Table 4.9. Urban development and land value capture mechanisms in Korea 124

Table 4.10. Past recommendations to make housing markets more efficient 126

Table 4.11. Findings and recommendations (key recommendations in bold) 127

Figures 6

Figure 1. Rapid ageing puts public finances under pressure 10

Figure 2. Reducing tax expenditures and raising indirect taxes can boost revenue 13

Figure 3. The tertiary education earnings premium is falling 14

Figure 4. Internal migration aggravates regional divergences 15

Figure 1.1. Income levels and work-life balance have improved 19

Figure 1.2. Consumption is supported by accommodative fiscal policy 21

Figure 1.3. Inflation is on target and expectations appear anchored 23

Figure 1.4. Employment growth is driven by women 25

Figure 1.5. Housing affordability is primarily an issue in Seoul 29

Figure 1.6. Transaction-based prices outpace total housing stock prices 30

Figure 1.7. Housing starts have been declining since 2018, notably in the SMA 30

Figure 1.8. The fiscal position weakens as fiscal pressure from ageing is rising 33

Figure 1.9. Fiscal pressures require a prudent fiscal framework and structural reforms 37

Figure 1.10. Exports are concentrated 38

Figure 1.11. Korean equities outperformed other main markets the past year 41

Figure 1.12. Control of corruption is improving 41

Figure 1.13. Public Integrity and Accountability 42

Figure 2.1. Tax structures with a low share of revenue from Goods and Services 54

Figure 2.2. The share of tax-exempt wage earners is declining but remains substantial 56

Figure 2.3. Top statutory PIT rates 57

Figure 2.4. Value-added taxes as a share of GDP are lower than the OECD average 59

Figure 2.5. Cigarettes are relatively affordable in Korea 60

Figure 2.6. Average effective carbon rates are low compared to other countries 61

Figure 2.7. Emissions need to fall faster to reach target 62

Figure 2.8. Korea's property taxation is skewed towards transaction taxes 64

Figure 2.9. Korea has the highest share of inheritance, estate, and gift taxes in total revenue 66

Figure 3.1. Adult skills are below the OECD average 73

Figure 3.2. Skills are declining by age 73

Figure 3.3. Artificial intelligence may already be changing the Korean labour market 74

Figure 3.4. Almost half of Koreans work in a different field from their highest qualification 76

Figure 3.5. Education funding is skewed towards primary and secondary school 77

Figure 3.6. Upper secondary education quality has increased while tertiary stagnated 78

Figure 3.7. The tertiary education earnings premium is falling in Korea 79

Figure 3.8. Learning-by-doing and adult training boost skills 81

Figure 3.9. Learning by doing and adult training are less frequent than in the OECD average 83

Figure 4.1. The capital region offers economic opportunity at the cost of expensive housing 92

Figure 4.2. Stark regional differences in per capita production and income 93

Figure 4.3. High wages in the Seoul Metropolitan Area attract young cohorts 93

Figure 4.4. Internal migration undermines balanced regional development 94

Figure 4.5. Net migration flows of 15-29 year-olds, 2010-2024 95

Figure 4.6. Old-age dependency ratio will rise substantially more outside SMA 95

Figure 4.7. Many struggle to find affordable homes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area 97

Figure 4.8. Fertility is particularly low in the capital area 98

Figure 4.9. Widening gap between urban centres and rural regions in access to health services 101

Figure 4.10. Childcare centre density is declining across regions 102

Figure 4.11. Easing regulations in professional services could yield high benefits 108

Figure 4.12. Taxing power and spending responsibilities of local governments are misaligned 110

Figure 4.13. The spending autonomy of local governments is limited 111

Figure 4.14. Upward mobility is increasingly determined by moving to and studying in the SMA 115

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Economic policy directions 2026 27

Box 1.2. Composition effects drive transaction-based housing price increases in Seoul 29

Box 1.3. Government roadmap to expand housing supply in the Seoul Metropolitan Area 31

Box 1.4. Korea's framework to support supply chain resilience 39

Box 2.1. Korea's implementation of the Global Anti-Base Erosion Tax 56

Box 2.2. Greenhouse gas emissions and policy framework in Korea 61

Box 3.1. The OECD Survey of Adult Skills 72

Box 3.2. Key policy initiatives to promote adult vocational skills 82

Box 4.1. Intergenerational earnings mobility and the role of internal migration 96

Box 4.2. Regional development policy agenda in Korea 99

Box 4.3. Examples of spatial transition initiatives in OECD countries 103

Box 4.4. Levers of AI-enabled regional development in other OECD countries 106

Box 4.5. Unlocking the potential of intermediary cities 114

Box 4.6. The digital learning ecosystem in Korea 116

Box 4.7. Crisis Response Zones in Korea 120

Box 4.8. Examples of attempts to decentralise planning authority 123

Annex Tables 7

Annex Table 1.A.1. Comparison of North and South Korea 45

Annex Figures 6

Annex Figure 1.A.1. Industry structure comparison between North and South Korea 44

Annex Figure 1.A.2. Exports are concentrated on a small number of niche products 45

Annex Figure 1.A.3. The North Korean Won depreciated massively 46

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