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Title page 1

Contents 6

Foreword 4

Acknowledgements 5

Executive summary 8

1. The role of monitoring and evaluation in combating fraud 10

1.1. Introduction 11

1.2. Cross-cutting principles for effective M&E systems 15

1.2.1. Embedding M&E in the strategy cycle: objectives, implementation planning, and intervention logic 16

1.2.2. Developing and selecting indicators with baselines, milestones and targets 17

1.2.3. Acknowledging and mitigating measurement and analysis limitations in M&E 22

References 23

Note 25

2. Evaluating anti-fraud strategies 26

2.1. Introduction 27

2.2. What, when and how to evaluate 28

2.2.1. Determining the criteria for strategy evaluation 28

2.2.2. Timing of evaluations and securing the necessary resources early on 31

2.2.3. Approaches for evaluating the impacts of an anti-fraud strategy 32

2.3. Governance and institutional responsibilities for evaluation 38

2.3.1. External and/or independent evaluation 38

2.3.2. The institutionalisation of evaluations 39

References 41

3. Updating anti-fraud strategies 43

3.1. Leveraging the results of evaluations to ensure strategic continuity and learning 44

3.1.1. When is an update required? 45

3.1.2. Communicating the results of evaluations 45

3.1.3. Being cognisant of potential spill-over effects from communication 48

References 51

4. Monitoring anti-fraud strategies 53

4.1. Introduction 54

4.2. When and how to monitor 54

4.2.1. When to monitor 55

4.2.2. Selecting monitoring methods 55

4.3. Governance and institutional responsibilities for monitoring 57

4.3.1. Diversity and participation in monitoring 58

4.3.2. Capacity, skills, and institutional mandates 59

4.4. Communication of monitoring results 59

References 64

Annex A. Sample questionnaire for evaluation 66

Annex B. Catalogue of outcome and impact-level indicators 79

Annex C. Checklist for updating anti-fraud strategies and action plan 91

Tables 7

Table 1.1. Potential data sources for indicators measuring anti-fraud strategies 21

Table 2.1. Applying the OECD DAC evaluation criteria to anti-fraud strategies 30

Table 2.2. Impact evaluation methods 35

Table 3.1. Criteria for the transparency of evaluation practices and their use in decision making 45

Table 3.2. Excerpt from checklist for updating anti-fraud strategies 45

Table 3.3. Potential elements when drafting monitoring and evaluation reports of Anti-Fraud Strategies 46

Table 4.1. Key biases that impact conclusions 57

Table 4.2. OECD PII - Selected criteria for an effective monitoring system 60

Table 4.3. Checklist for updating the action plan 60

Figures 7

Figure 1.1. Anti-fraud strategies in OECD Members/Partners & EU Members and candidate countries 13

Figure 1.2. Example primary (strategic) objectives following the anti-fraud cycle 16

Figure 1.3. Example of Theory of Change (ToC) with indicators: Implementing a set of measures under the prevention phase of the anti-fraud cycle 18

Figure 2.1. Example of timing of anti-fraud strategy evaluation (5-year strategy cycle) 31

Figure 4.1. Example of a structure related to the reporting of monitoring activities 55

Figure 4.2. Navigating the Ukrainian portal displaying the results of monitoring of the 2023-2025 State Anti-Corruption Program (SACP) 63

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. Key elements of a strategic approach to counter fraud 12

Box 1.2. Definition of Fraud under Article 3.2 of the Directive (EU) 2017/1371 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 July 2017... 15

Box 1.3. Key considerations when developing indicators 19

Box 2.1. Evaluation workflow - operational actions in evaluations of anti-fraud strategies 27

Box 2.2. Ensuring strategy coherence in Portugal's National Anti-Fraud Strategy 2021-2027 29

Box 2.3. International Public Sector Fraud Forum (IPSFF) Framework on Fraud Loss Measurement 33

Box 2.4. Randomised control trials 36

Box 2.5. Estimating the financial value of preventing ongoing identity compromise 37

Box 2.6. Theory of change in Montenegro's NAFS (2019-2022) 38

Box 2.7. Country examples where a central body leads the implementation, monitoring, evaluation and reporting of anti-fraud and... 40

Box 3.1. Using the results of evaluations effectively 47

Box 3.2. General design principles for anti-fraud campaigns 49

Box 4.1. Examples of monitoring action plans for National Anti-fraud Strategies 56

Box 4.2. Citizens supporting monitoring activities in Colombia 58

Box 4.3. Sharing anti-corruption monitoring reports 61

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