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https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-employment-outlook-2026_7e710f54-en.html
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Title page 1
Contents 10
Foreword 4
Editorial: People to jobs and jobs to people: Reducing regional disparities in the labour market 6
Executive summary 16
1. From resilience to risk: Employment and wages under pressure 19
In Brief 20
Introduction 21
1.1. Labour markets have remained resilient but there have been further signs of weakening 21
1.1.1. Unemployment remains low but is on the rise 22
1.1.2. Growth in employment and labour force participation is slowing down 23
1.1.3. Labour markets continued to ease but structural shortages remain 25
1.1.4. The reduction in annual hours worked per worker has slowed down 31
1.1.5. Labour productivity growth is slowing down 32
1.1.6. Labour markets are highly uncertain 33
1.2. The real wage recovery was already slowing down before the recent surge in energy prices 35
1.2.1. Real wage growth was slowing down in early 2026, while there was still room for catching up in one-third of OECD countries 36
1.2.2. The wages of the lowest-paid workers have proved more resilient than median wages to the inflation surge 42
1.2.3. The catching up of real wages relative to unit profits was already slowing down before the recent surge in energy prices 52
1.3. Young labour market entrants face particular labour market difficulties 55
1.3.1. So far, the role of LLMs in explaining the difficulties encountered by young people entering the labour market appears to be limited 55
1.3.2. Young labour market entrants may have been particularly vulnerable to the recent weakening of labour markets and long-term changes... 59
1.4. Concluding remarks 60
References 61
Annex 1.A. Additional results 65
Notes 79
2. Workers, households, regions: Geographic disparities in labour market outcomes and the distribution of income 83
In Brief 84
Introduction 85
2.1. Regional disparities in labour market outcomes 88
2.1.1. People's employment prospects are shaped by where they live 88
2.1.2. Workers are different across regions, but this alone cannot explain regional employment disparities 93
2.1.3. Regional economic performance is a major driver of employment disparities across regions 95
2.1.4. Workers' mobility is not sufficient to narrow regional disparities in labour market outcomes 98
2.2. From labour market outcomes to the distribution of household incomes: Regional inequalities in living standards 105
2.2.1. Regional income disparities vary across countries and align only weakly with regional disparities in GDP per capita 106
2.2.2. Median incomes are higher in regions where employment rates are higher 110
2.2.3. Regional incomes have converged across regions in most countries with available data, reflecting convergence in employment rates 112
2.2.4. Capital regions are marked by both higher incomes and greater inequality, but more broadly there is no clear link between regional... 115
2.2.5. Most household income inequality occurs within regions, not between them 120
2.3. Moving up the ladder: Regional disparities in people's income mobility 122
2.4. Concluding remarks 125
References 126
Annex 2.A. Sources of data on regional labour market outcomes 135
Annex 2.B. Sources of data on regional income distributions 137
Annex 2.C. Sources of data on regional income mobility 142
Annex 2.D. Regions excluded from the analysis 143
Annex 2.E. Additional results 148
Notes 152
3. Places and people: The impact of structural change on local labour markets 154
In Brief 155
Introduction 157
3.1. Regional specialisation and regional exposure to structural change 158
3.1.1. Regional specialisation 159
3.1.2. Regional exposure to structural change 161
3.1.3. Regional exposure across workers and firms 165
3.2. The impact of structural change on places, people and firms 168
3.2.1. The impact on trade and technology shocks on places 169
3.2.2. The impact on people 175
3.2.3. The impact on firms 179
3.3. Implications for place-based and national policies 183
3.3.1. Regional policies 186
3.3.2. Place-based industrial policies 188
3.3.3. Employment and social policies 189
3.4. Concluding remarks 190
References 191
Annex 3.A. Data sources 197
Annex 3.B. Additional results 198
Notes 200
4. Skills at work: New evidence on returns to skills and training 203
In Brief 204
Introduction 206
4.1. Skills play a key role in shaping labour market outcomes beyond formal education 208
4.1.1. Cognitive skills continue to be an important determinant of labour market outcomes 208
4.1.2. Education and numeracy skills are associated with higher wages primarily by enabling access to occupations with larger wages 211
4.1.3. The relationship between education and labour market outcomes has weakened over time 214
4.1.4. Labour market success depends not only on what workers know, but also on the non-cognitive skills they use in their jobs 216
4.2. Training and learning are associated with positive labour market outcomes, particularly in the case of non-formal training 218
4.2.1. Associations between participation in job-related training and wages differ by the type of learning 218
4.2.2. The relationship between training participation and wages is heterogeneous across occupations 224
4.2.3. Labour market outcomes depend on what, how, and who pays for training 225
4.3. Fostering skills development and high-return training requires renewed public policies 229
4.3.1. Enhancing training flexibility can raise participation and deliver benefits comparable to traditional formats 230
4.3.2. Quality and information are essential to increase returns to training 231
4.3.3. Capacity-building measures can be used to encourage employer-provided training 231
4.4. Concluding remarks 232
References 233
Annex 4.A. Methodological annex 240
Annex 4.B. Robustness checks 241
Notes 244
5. Non-compete and related agreements: Hoarding talent, holding back growth? 245
In Brief 246
Introduction 248
5.1. The economics of non-compete and related clauses 249
5.2. How do OECD countries regulate non-compete clauses? 253
5.3. The incidence and characteristics of non-compete clauses 257
5.3.1. The prevalence of non-compete and related clauses is high and rising 259
5.3.2. Non-compete clauses can be found in all countries, even in those where they are tightly regulated 262
5.3.3. Non-compete clauses are often deployed in ways that are difficult to reconcile with the original intent 264
5.3.4. Non-compete clauses can be broad in scope and not comply with legal requirements 269
5.3.5. There is evidence of (firm-to-firm) no-poaching and wage-fixing agreements 275
5.4. Non-compete clauses, wages and productivity 277
5.4.1. Job mobility, firm entry and wages 277
5.4.2. Productivity - reallocation and knowledge diffusion 281
5.4.3. Productivity - other channels 288
5.5. Policy discussion 290
5.6. Concluding remarks 293
References 294
Annex 5.A. Survey specifications 301
Annex 5.B. Additional figures and tables 310
Notes 319
6. Recent trends in employment protection legislation: Tackling dualism by harmonising and strengthening regulations 326
In Brief 327
Introduction 328
6.1. Tailored EPL can help labour markets navigate short-term fluctuations and structural changes in a fair and effective manner 329
6.1.1. If not too strict, dismissal regulation can smooth labour market adjustments and help labour markets navigate ongoing... 330
6.1.2. Dismissal regulation can protect older workers who are able to work longer 330
6.1.3. If too strict, dismissal regulation can excessively hinder labour market adjustments and replace open-ended contracts with... 331
6.2. Dismissal regulation for workers on open-ended contracts 332
6.2.1. Regulation of individual dismissals of employees on open-ended contracts 334
6.2.2. Regulation of collective dismissals of workers on open-ended contracts 336
6.2.3. Overall regulation of dismissing workers on open-ended contracts 339
6.3. Regulation of temporary contracts 340
6.3.1. Regulation on the termination of fixed-term contracts 340
6.3.2. Regulation of hiring fixed-term employees 344
6.3.3. Regulation of hiring temporary work agency workers 345
6.3.4. Overall regulation of temporary contracts 347
6.4. Recent reforms in EPL: Harmonising protection of workers on open-ended contracts and strengthening regulation of temporary contracts 348
6.4.1. Six countries harmonised employment protection for workers on open-ended contracts 351
6.4.2. Reforms of hiring regulation for temporary workers mainly consisted of tightening restrictions 352
6.4.3. Four countries better aligned regulation of temporary contracts with that of open-ended contracts 354
6.4.4. EU regulation led to slight reduction in the probationary period in some countries, mainly limited to fixed-term contracts 355
6.4.5. Other policy approaches to labour market dualism 355
6.5. Concluding remarks 357
References 358
Annex 6.A. Additional material 364
Notes 377
Annex A. Statistical annex 384
Figure 1.1. GDP growth remained resilient in the first quarter of 2026 22
Figure 1.2. Unemployment rates remain low but are on the rise 23
Figure 1.3. Growth in employment and labour force participation rates is slowing down 25
Figure 1.4. Labour hoarding in the EU has been declining but remains above pre-COVID-19 levels 27
Figure 1.5. Labour market tightness is close to or below pre-COVID-19 levels in most countries but remains high 28
Figure 1.6. Labour market tightness is close to pre-COVID 19 levels in most sectors in the euro area and the United States 30
Figure 1.7. The reduction in annual hours worked per worker has slowed down 31
Figure 1.8. Labour productivity growth is slowing down 32
Figure 1.9. OECD labour markets are expected to slow down temporarily in 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East remains of limited duration 34
Figure 1.10. Inflation was on a downward path until the recent surge in energy prices 36
Figure 1.11. Real wage growth is slowing down while real wages remain below Q1 2021 levels in one-third of OECD countries 38
Figure 1.12. Real wages are expected to weaken 39
Figure 1.13. Posted wages point to a recent slowdown in real wage growth 40
Figure 1.14. Real negotiated wages continued to increase but remain below Q1 2021 levels 41
Figure 1.15. Real minimum wages remain above January 2021 levels and continue to rise 44
Figure 1.16. Statutory minimum wages have increased more than median wages 46
Figure 1.17. In-work poverty risk has decreased for minimum wage workers 47
Figure 1.18. The share of minimum wage workers evolved along different trends across countries during the cost-of-living crisis 49
Figure 1.19. There has been a clear trend towards wage compression between sectors since Q1 2021 in the United States but not in Australia... 51
Figure 1.20. Profits continue to buffer rising labour costs 53
Figure 1.21. The contribution of unit profits to domestic price pressures has stabilised around pre-pandemic levels in the euro area and... 54
Figure 1.22. Young labour market entrants have been increasingly exposed to unemployment compared to the rest of the working age population 55
Figure 1.23. There have been divergent trends between AI hiring, and online job postings in high LLM-exposure occupations relative... 57
Figure 1.24. There have been divergent trends between AI hirings, and junior job postings in high LLM-exposure occupations relative... 58
Figure 2.1. Regional disparities in labour market outcomes are large in most OECD countries 89
Figure 2.2. Low-employment regions have been catching up, narrowing regional disparities 92
Figure 2.3. Workers' observable characteristics explain a limited part of regional disparities in employment outcomes 94
Figure 2.4. People's labour market outcomes are substantially worse in low-GDP-per-worker regions 96
Figure 2.5. High-value-added jobs are disproportionately concentrated in capital-city regions 98
Figure 2.6. People move out of low-employment regions and into high-employment ones, but at a slow pace 99
Figure 2.7. Regions with high unemployment are spatially clustered 102
Figure 2.8. People with better employment prospects are more likely to move out of low-employment regions 104
Figure 2.9. Regional disparities in median household incomes vary substantially across countries, but are much narrower than disparities... 107
Figure 2.10. Regional median incomes increase with employment rates in most countries 111
Figure 2.11. Median incomes have converged across regions since 2010 in most countries, and convergence in incomes closely aligns with... 114
Figure 2.12. Within-region income inequality also varies widely and, in many countries, is greater in higher-income regions 116
Figure 2.13. Capital regions record, on average, higher median incomes and higher inequality 118
Figure 2.14. High-income households are overrepresented and lower-income households are underrepresented in capital regions 119
Figure 2.15. Between-region differences account for only a fraction of overall household income inequality 121
Figure 2.16. Low-income regions offer less opportunity for upward income mobility 124
Figure 3.1. Regional, industrial, employment and social policies are needed to address the local impact of structural change 158
Figure 3.2. Industrial specialisation is very high in some regions 159
Figure 3.3. Regional exposure to generative AI 163
Figure 3.4. There are large differences in regional exposure to structural change 165
Figure 3.5. Exposure to structural change varies across firms and workers 167
Figure 3.6. The effects of trade exposure on regional employment 171
Figure 3.7. The effects of technology exposure on regional employment 173
Figure 3.8. The effects of exposure to trade and technology shocks on regional employment by sector 174
Figure 3.9. The effects of regional trade exposure on net worker flows 176
Figure 3.10. The effects of regional technology exposure on net worker flows 178
Figure 3.11. The effects of regional trade exposure across firms and industries 180
Figure 3.12. The effects of regional technology exposure across firms and industries 182
Figure 3.13. A framework for place-based policies 184
Figure 4.1. Education and skills are positively associated with employment status 210
Figure 4.2. Education and numeracy are positively, and independently, associated with higher wages across virtually all participating countries 211
Figure 4.3. Occupational sorting accounts for a substantial share of variation in wages 212
Figure 4.4. Higher-skilled occupations reward numeracy and, especially, education 213
Figure 4.5. In general, the associations between unemployment and education and skills have weakened over time 215
Figure 4.6. The relationship between education, skills and wages weakened in the last decade for some countries 216
Figure 4.7. The association between numeracy and wages is more pronounced among workers with higher degrees of task discretion... 218
Figure 4.8. Participation in adult learning varies by type of learning and country 220
Figure 4.9. Employees in higher-skilled occupations participate more in adult learning 221
Figure 4.10. On average in OECD countries, there is a clear and positive association between non-formal training and wages 224
Figure 4.11. Managers and skilled trades have the strongest association between non-formal training and wages 225
Figure 4.12. Training on teamwork, leadership and project management is associated with larger wages 227
Figure 4.13. Flexible learning and employer-funded training are associated with higher wages 229
Figure 5.1. Two perspectives on non-compete clauses 251
Figure 5.2. A brief history of non-compete clauses 253
Figure 5.3. The freedom to use non-compete clauses varies a lot across OECD countries 255
Figure 5.4. All types of clauses are relatively common and are on the rise 260
Figure 5.5. Non-compete and related clauses are frequently grouped together 261
Figure 5.6. Non-compete clauses are relatively common in OECD countries 263
Figure 5.7. The use of non-compete clauses is rising 264
Figure 5.8. The use of non-compete clauses extends well past executives and specialised professionals 265
Figure 5.9. Non-compete clauses can be found in all types of firms and sectors 267
Figure 5.10. Non-compete and related clauses are often applied to all employees 268
Figure 5.11. Non-compete clauses are not necessarily presented before the start of the employment relationship and are rarely negotiated 269
Figure 5.12. Non-compete clauses can be broad in scope 270
Figure 5.13. A large share of non-compete clauses appears to fall short of legal requirements 271
Figure 5.14. Limited understanding of legal requirements could explain lack of compliance 273
Figure 5.15. Employees often believe non-compete clauses are binding even when they fall short of legal requirements 274
Figure 5.16. Knowledge of no-poaching or wage-fixing agreements is widespread among firms and employees 276
Figure 5.17. Workers report meaningful effects on job mobility and business entry 278
Figure 5.18. Returns to experience are weaker among low-educated employees bound by a non-compete clause 279
Figure 5.19. Non-compete clauses are associated with weaker productivity-enhancing labour reallocation 284
Figure 5.20. Non-compete clauses, no-poach agreements and labour reallocation 285
Figure 5.21. Non-compete clauses are associated with slower catch-up growth to the productivity frontier 286
Figure 5.22. Aggregate productivity effects of non-compete clauses 288
Figure 5.23. Use of non-compete clauses does not appear to vary much by past innovation activity, training and growth 289
Figure 6.1. Strictness of regulation of individual dismissals of workers on open-ended contracts 335
Figure 6.2. Notice period and severance pay for individual dismissals of workers on open-ended contracts 336
Figure 6.3. Strictness of regulation of collective dismissals (defined as dismissals of several workers on open-ended contracts in one month) 337
Figure 6.4. Difference between strictness of regulation of collective and individual dismissals for economic reasons 338
Figure 6.5. Overall strictness of regulation of dismissing workers on open-ended contracts 339
Figure 6.6. Strictness of regulation on the termination of fixed-term contracts 343
Figure 6.7. Strictness of hiring regulation on fixed-term contracts 345
Figure 6.8. Strictness of regulation on temporary-work-agency employment 346
Figure 6.9. Strictness of overall regulation of temporary contracts 347
Figure 6.10. Quantifying recent reforms in employment protection legislation 349
Figure 6.11. Regulatory changes of recent reforms of employment protection legislation 350
Figure 6.12. Long-term trends in employment protection legislation 351
Figure 6.13. The rise in open-ended employment reflects only to a small extent the increased use of open-ended intermittent contracts 354
Boxes 26
Box 1.1. Labour hoarding in the EU has been declining but remains above pre-COVID-19 levels 26
Box 1.2. Online vacancies from selected OECD countries point to a recent slowdown in the growth of real posted wages 40
Box 1.3. Real negotiated wage growth in selected OECD countries is slowing down, but there is still room for catching up 41
Box 1.4. Minimum wages have grown by less in countries without a national minimum wage 43
Box 1.5. The share of minimum wage workers evolved along different trends across countries during the cost-of-living crisis 48
Box 1.6. Online job postings for junior positions in the United States have not declined disproportionately in LLM-exposed occupations... 58
Box 2.1. Overview of data sources 87
Box 2.2. Measuring convergence in labour market outcomes across regions 91
Box 2.3. Measuring spatial clustering: Global and Local Moran's I 101
Box 2.4. Who leaves low-employment regions behind? Evidence from administrative records in Belgium and Estonia 103
Box 2.5. Disparities in the accessibility of essential services compound regional disparities in incomes 109
Box 2.6. Decomposing overall household income inequality into between- and within-region components 120
Box 3.1. Methodology I: Measuring regional specialisation and exposure 160
Box 3.2. The effects of trade realignment and artificial intelligence 162
Box 3.3. Methodology II: The effects of trade and technology shocks on places, people and firms 168
Box 3.4. The effects of trade and technology shocks across sectors 174
Box 3.5. Examples of place-based policies 185
Box 3.6. Policies to support geographical mobility 187
Box 4.1. Empirical strategy to estimate associations of years of education and numeracy skill level with labour market outcomes 209
Box 4.2. Types and incidence of adult learning in Cycle 2 of the Survey Adult Skills 219
Box 4.3. Empirical strategy to estimate associations of training and learning participation with wages 222
Box 5.1. Contractual clauses regulating post-employment activity 250
Box 5.2. The debate on the regulation of non-compete clauses goes back to the middle-ages 252
Box 5.3. The OECD index of non-compete regulation 254
Box 5.4. The OECD-Bocconi employee and employer surveys on non-compete and related clauses 258
Box 5.5. Methodology: Non-compete clauses and earnings growth 280
Box 5.6. Methodology: Non-compete clauses and productivity 282
Box 5.7. No-poach agreements and productivity 285
Box 5.8. Collective bargaining as a tool to regulate non-compete clauses: evidence from France 293
Box 6.1. Enforcement of unfair dismissal regulations in the OECD EPL indicators 333
Box 6.2. The design of the new indicator of protection against terminating fixed-term contracts 340
Box 6.3. The surge in open-ended contracts in Spain after the 2022 reform limiting the use of temporary contracts was not due... 353
Box 6.4. Improving working conditions for platform workers 356
INFOGRAPHICS 15
Infographic 1. Key facts and figures 18
Annex Figure 1.A.1. Employment rates have increased among prime aged and older individuals, but not among youth 65
Annex Figure 1.A.2. Gender employment and participation gaps have narrowed 66
Annex Figure 1.A.3. The share of working-age migrants in employment or participating in the labour market has increased... 67
Annex Figure 1.A.4. Labour market tightness is close to pre-COVID 19 levels in most sectors in the euro area and the United States 68
Annex Figure 1.A.5. Incidence of part-time workers and temporary workers 69
Annex Figure 1.A.6. Labour productivity growth has been diverging between OECD countries 70
Annex Figure 1.A.7. Nominal and real wage index by country since Q4 2019 71
Annex Figure 1.A.8. Change in real wage by industry in some non-euro area OECD countries 75
Annex Figure 1.A.9. Unemployment rates among young labour market entrants with and without a college degree 77
Annex Figure 1.A.10. Trends in AI online job postings 77
Annex Figure 1.A.11. Relative index of new job postings in high- versus low-LLM exposure occupations in European countries 78
Annex Figure 2.E.1. Capital-city regions often exhibit higher-employment rates 148
Annex Figure 2.E.2. Regional disparities in GDP per capita are large in many OECD countries 149
Annex Figure 2.E.3. Regional income distributions have a very large degree of overlap 150
Annex Figure 3.B.1. The effects of trade exposure by import region-of-origin and broad sector 198
Annex Figure 3.B.2. The effects of trade exposure by migration status and broad sector 199
Annex Figure 5.B.1. Prevalence of non-compete clauses 310
Annex Figure 5.B.2. Incidence of non-compete clauses among employees who started their job after 2023 310
Annex Figure 5.B.3. Correlation between the prevalence of non-compete clauses and the OECD index of non-compete regulation 311
Annex Figure 5.B.4. Incidence of non-disclosure agreements 312
Annex Figure 5.B.5. Incidence of non-recruitment/non-solicitation of colleagues clauses 313
Annex Figure 5.B.6. Incidence of non-solicitation of clients clauses 314
Annex Figure 5.B.7. Incidence of repayment of training clauses 315
Annex Figure 5.B.8. Incidence of repayment of bonus clauses 316
Annex Figure 5.B.9. Share of employees by number of post-employment restraint clauses used by firms 317
Annex Figure 5.B.10. Share of non-compete clauses appearing to fall short of legal requirements 317
Annex Figure 6.A.1. Decomposition of the EPL indicators for dismissing workers on open-ended contracts 374
Annex Figure 6.A.2. Maximum time to make a claim of unfair dismissal for individual dismissals of workers on open-ended contracts 375
Annex Figure 6.A.3. Time delay before notice can be given 375
Annex Figure 6.A.4. Maximum numbers and durations of temporary contracts 376
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