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Title page 1

Contents 5

Foreword 4

Basic statistics of the United Kingdom, 2025 8

Executive summary 9

1. Strengthening growth while ensuring fiscal sustainability 18

1.1. The economy has improved but faces major challenges 19

1.1.1. External shocks and structural constraints have eroded living standards 19

1.1.2. GDP recovered, though modestly 21

1.1.3. Renewed imported inflation is adding to sticky domestic price pressures 22

1.1.4. Trade weakness is structural 24

1.1.5. Growth will slow as the evolving conflict in the Middle East unfolds 26

1.2. Monetary restriction remains needed until inflation is durably under control 29

1.2.1. The balance of inflation risks is highly uncertain 29

1.2.2. Quantitative tightening has supported the normalisation of monetary policy 30

1.2.3. Better forecasting and communication will help monetary policy effectiveness 31

1.3. Heightened financial market risks call for continued vigilance 31

1.3.1. Households and corporates are resilient, but pockets of debt vulnerabilities exist 31

1.3.2. Prudential policy needs to balance global risks and domestic credit supply 32

1.3.3. The growth in private credit requires closer oversight 34

1.4. Fiscal discipline and reforms will be key to sustaining growth 35

1.4.1. The fiscal stance remains moderately and adequately restrictive 35

1.4.2. The medium-term fiscal strategy aims to balance demand and public finances 37

1.4.3. The fiscal framework has improved, but gaps remain 38

1.4.4. Long-term spending pressures must be addressed to preserve fiscal space 39

1.4.5. Reforms to contain long-term spending pressures 41

1.4.6. Higher tax efficiency would raise growth potential and support fiscal sustainability 44

Recommendations on strengthening growth while ensuring fiscal sustainability 50

References 51

2. Ensuring state pension sustainability while closing gaps in private pension savings 55

2.1. The pension system features strengths and weaknesses 56

2.2. Long-term fiscal vulnerabilities in state pensions must be addressed 59

2.2.1. Reforming the triple lock is necessary to reduce fiscal uncertainty 59

2.2.2. Maintaining high employment would bolster the pension financing base 62

2.3. Supporting private pension savings for groups with coverage gaps is key 65

2.3.1. Automatically enrolling the self-employed would boost replacement rates 65

2.3.2. Completing the childcare reform could help to narrow the gender pension gap 66

Recommendations on ensuring pension sustainability and affordability 68

References 69

3. Strengthening energy security in the transition to net zero 72

3.1. The green transition is reshaping energy security challenges 73

3.2. Enhancing energy security through coordinated decarbonisation 74

3.2.1. Aligning price signals to accelerate electrification and reduce gas dependence 75

3.2.2. Securing energy supply in an increasingly electrified system 78

3.3. Embedding climate resilience in electricity system planning 85

Recommendations to strengthen energy security 87

References 88

4. Reducing regional productivity gaps to raise aggregate growth 91

4.1. Raising aggregate productivity by narrowing regional gaps 92

4.2. Addressing structural drivers of regional productivity gaps 97

4.2.1. Strengthening local skills systems to support regional productivity 97

4.2.2. Strengthening physical and digital connectivity to unlock spatial spillovers 104

4.2.3. Broadening regional innovation and accelerating diffusion of new technologies 108

4.3. Improving the financial and administrative capacity of subnational governments to deliver regional productivity gains 116

4.3.1. Strengthening institutional coordination and strategic coherence 116

4.3.2. Deepening devolution and building local capacity 118

4.3.3. Reforming fiscal frameworks to support sustainable local growth 122

4.3.4. Strengthening governance quality, trust and integrity to improve local delivery 126

Recommendations to reduce regional productivity disparities 130

References 131

Tables 7

Table 1. Growth will slow temporarily 11

Table 1.1. Estimated GDP impact of selected structural reforms 20

Table 1.2. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 27

Table 1.3. Low-probability events that could lead to major changes in the outlook 28

Table 1.4. General government fiscal indicators and projections 37

Table 1.5. Estimated budgetary impact of selected tax and spending measures 41

Table 1.6. Previous recommendations on improving efficiency in the tax system 48

Table 2.1. Previous recommendations on pro-work reforms in benefits, tax, and skills policy 64

Table 2.2. Previous recommendations on support for childcare provision and family policy 67

Table 3.1. Past recommendations on price signals, heat pump and EV adoption 78

Table 4.1. Past recommendations on education and lifelong learning 104

Table 4.2. Past recommendations on improving businesses access to finance 116

Table 4.3. Past recommendations on raising local authorities' funds 126

Figures 6

Figure 1. Per capita growth has gradually strengthened but remains subdued 10

Figure 2. The triple lock creates significant fiscal risks 13

Figure 3. Electricity prices remain high 14

Figure 4. Regional productivity disparities persist 14

Figure 1.1. Per capita growth has stagnated, reflecting structural constraints 19

Figure 1.2. Domestic demand supported the recovery from the 2021-2023 energy shock 22

Figure 1.3. Domestic price pressures persist 23

Figure 1.4. Trade remains weak in goods and strong in services 25

Figure 1.5. Monetary policy has eased, while inflation expectations remain elevated 29

Figure 1.6. Household and non-financial corporation risks are contained 32

Figure 1.7. The banking system appears sound 33

Figure 1.8. The public finances are under pressure 36

Figure 1.9. Structural reforms are key to ensuring fiscal sustainability 40

Figure 1.10. Public spending is relatively high in health and in defence 42

Figure 1.11. Spending pressures from health-related welfare are significant 43

Figure 1.12. The tax structure appears balanced and conducive to growth 44

Figure 1.13. Small firms' weak compliance reflects both system complexity and tax avoidance 45

Figure 1.14. Large tax expenditures entail unnecessary economic distortions 47

Figure 1.15. The additionality of public support for R&D activities could be evaluated 49

Figure 2.1. A sound system and better demography underpin adequate pension outcomes 56

Figure 2.2. Fiscal risks and pockets of inadequate savings weigh on affordability 58

Figure 2.3. The triple lock introduces significant uncertainty to public pension expenditure 59

Figure 2.4. Fiscal risks from the triple lock are asymmetrically skewed to the upside 61

Figure 2.5. Subdued employment could start weighing on the sustainability of state pensions 63

Figure 2.6. The self-employed participate less in private pensions 65

Figure 2.7. Gender gaps are large in both retirement income and part-time employment 66

Figure 3.1. The United Kingdom is a global leader in reducing emissions, but electricity prices are high 73

Figure 3.2. Electricity remains more expensive than gas for industry and households 75

Figure 3.3. Heat pump deployment remains below levels required to reduce gas dependence 76

Figure 3.4. Strong carbon pricing has supported EV uptake 77

Figure 3.5. Carbon price disparities weaken incentives to electrify heating 78

Figure 3.6. Grid connection backlogs constrain renewable deployment 79

Figure 3.7. Renewables and short-duration flexibility will need to expand until 2030 81

Figure 3.8. Wind has replaced coal in electricity generation 82

Figure 3.9. As renewables increase, system flexibility requirements need to adjust 84

Figure 4.1. Productivity growth in the United Kingdom has been weak over the past decade 92

Figure 4.2. UK labour productivity disparities are in line with the OECD average 93

Figure 4.3. Labour productivity varies widely across UK regions 94

Figure 4.4. Most productivity differences across the United Kingdom arise from differences within regions rather than between regions 95

Figure 4.5. Productivity and employment are concentrated within few regions and sectors 96

Figure 4.6. Educational outcomes differ across regions at early stages 98

Figure 4.7. Adult skills are above the OECD average in most regions 101

Figure 4.8. Skills shortages and vacancy rates differ markedly across UK regions 102

Figure 4.9. Transport infrastructure investment is concentrated in the London region 105

Figure 4.10. Digital connectivity has improved across England, with some remaining regional gaps 107

Figure 4.11. SMEs in the London region lead in adopting digital technologies 108

Figure 4.12. UK R&D spending is around the OECD average but highly spatially concentrated 112

Figure 4.13. Business dynamism is around EU peers but has declined over time 113

Figure 4.14. Equity investment is highly concentrated in the London region 114

Figure 4.15. Devolution plan to streamline government in England 120

Figure 4.16. Local authorities real available funding remains below 2010 levels 122

Figure 4.17. Local revenues are limited in the United Kingdom 123

Figure 4.18. Vertical fiscal imbalances are large in the United Kingdom 125

Figure 4.19. Trust in government has declined over time 127

Figure 4.20. Control of corruption remains high by OECD standards but has weakened 129

Boxes 7

Box 1.1. The government's Growth Mission 21

Box 1.2. Progress on trade agreements and the new UK Trade Strategy 26

Box 1.3. Adapting financial supervision to climate and cyber-risks 35

Box 1.4. Fiscal rules under the Charter for Budget Responsibility 39

Box 1.5. Reviews of tax expenditure: the cases of France and Canada 46

Box 2.1. Structure, main features and recent reforms of the UK pension system 57

Box 2.2. Asymmetric fiscal risks from triple-lock indexation: stochastic simulations 61

Box 2.3. Australia's pension indexation system: balancing adequacy and fiscal sustainability 62

Box 3.1. Moving from reactive to anticipatory grid investment in Europe 80

Box 4.1. Renewed focus on the young through the reform to the UK apprenticeship levy (Growth and Skills Levy) and the Youth Guarantee 100

Box 4.2. The UK: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for Growth, Skills and Regional Development 109

Box 4.3. International Examples of Staged Digital Adoption Support for SMEs 110

Box 4.4. The UK Catapult network in international perspective 115

Box 4.5. An asymmetric devolution process across the United Kingdom 118

Box 4.6. Ten guidelines for effective assignment of responsibilities to make decentralisation work 121

Box 4.7. Local government funding reform in England 126

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