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Title page 1

Contents 5

Acknowledgements 2

Foreword 10

Executive summary 11

Acronyms 16

1. Introduction 17

2. Relevance of the GEMS (Global Economic Model and Study) initiative 21

2.1. Why is a GEMS tool needed? 21

2.2. The GEMS tool provides results by type of networking technology and country 23

3. Theoretical and empirical frameworks of the GEMS tool: overview of the causal flows 24

3.1. Initial conditions of investment 25

3.1.1. Social and economic context 25

3.1.2. Technology context 26

3.1.3. Regulatory context 27

3.2. Investment and coverage: the key role of population density 28

3.3. Enhancing broadband performance: speed drivers 32

3.4. Increasing broadband affordability: price drivers 34

3.5. Broadband adoption: connecting the unconnected 36

3.6. Economic impact of broadband deployment 37

3.6.1. Financial returns to the telecommunication operators 38

3.6.2. Economic benefits to society 38

3.6.3. Economic spillovers for specific economic sectors 39

3.7. Regulatory good practices as variables to mitigate the investment burden 40

3.8. Investment subsidization 41

3.8.1. Government 41

3.8.2. Additional supply subsidies 43

3.8.3. Sector contributions 43

3.8.4. Demand stimulation mechanisms 44

3.9. Private and social rate of return 45

4. Case study pilot: Ghana 46

4.1. Starting point 46

4.2. Targets 47

4.3. Social impact 48

4.4. Private returns 50

4.5. Conclusion 54

5. Case study pilot: Guatemala 55

5.1. Starting point 55

5.2. Pilot targets 56

5.3. Social impact 57

5.4. Private returns 58

5.5. Conclusion 62

6. Case study pilot: Saudi Arabia 63

6.1. Starting point 64

6.2. Targets 65

6.2.1. Regulatory obligation 65

6.2.2. National goals 65

6.3. Data collection and assumptions 66

6.4. Social impact 68

6.4.1. Impact under the regulatory obligation scenario 68

6.4.2. Impact under the national goals scenario 69

6.5. Private returns 71

6.5.1. Private returns under the regulatory obligation scenario 72

6.5.2. Private returns under the national goals scenario 73

6.6. Identifying investment gaps between regulatory obligations and national goals scenarios 75

6.7. Sectoral fee design 76

6.7.1. Sector levies earmarked to a broadband fund 76

6.7.2. Mandatory or incentivized co-investment schemes 77

6.7.3. Results-based contributions tied to sector outcomes 77

6.8. Conclusion 77

Bibliography 81

Appendix 84

A.1. Variables used in empirical analysis 84

A.2. Models for investment drivers 89

A.3. Models for coverage drivers 91

A.4. Models for speed drivers 93

A.5. Models for price drivers 95

A.6. Models for adoption drivers 97

A.7. Models for GDP drivers 98

Tables 9

Table 3-1. Average cost per person covered (4G, 5G) / household passed (FTTH) 32

Table 3-2. Impact of the specific regulatory measures 40

Table 3-3. 5G Use cases in specific industries 44

Table 3-4. Examples of demand stimulus policies 45

Table 4-1. Ghana: Mobile broadband (MBB) investment results for telecommunication operators - by policy scenario 51

Table 4-2. Ghana: Fixed broadband (FBB) investment results for telecommunication operators - by policy scenario 53

Table 4-3. Ghana: Overall results for IT sector 54

Table 5-1. Guatemala: Mobile broadband (MBB) investment results for telecommunication operators - by policy scenario 59

Table 5-2. Guatemala: Fixed broadband (FBB) investment results for telecommunication operators - by policy scenario 61

Table 5-3. Guatemala: Overall results for IT sector 62

Table 6-1. Saudi Arabia: Mobile broadband investment results for telecommunication operators under the regulatory obligations scenario 72

Table 6-2. Saudi Arabia: Mobile broadband investment results for telecommunication operators under the national goals scenario 74

Table 6-3. Saudi Arabia: Fixed broadband (FBB) investment results for telecommunication operators under the national goals scenario 75

Table 6-4. Saudi Arabia: Overall results for IT sector under the national goals scenario 78

Table 6-5. Country pilots 79

Figures 7

Figure A. Conceptual Structure of GEMS tool 12

Figure B. Diagram of causal flows to be estimated 13

Figure 1-1. Aspirational targets for 2030 17

Figure 1-2. Conceptual structure of the GEMS tool 18

Figure 2-1. World: broadband coverage evolution 21

Figure 2-2. Broadband coverage by region (2025) 22

Figure 3-1. Diagram of causal flows to be estimated 24

Figure 3-2. Causal link between regulation, investment and network performance 27

Figure 3-3. Causal link between capex and coverage 29

Figure 3-4. Increase in percentage points of coverage after a 1 per cent increase in investment 31

Figure 3-5. Causal link between broadband coverage and speed 33

Figure 3-6. Drivers of broadband speed 34

Figure 3-7. Causal link between broadband coverage and pricing 35

Figure 3-8. Causal link between pricing and adoption 36

Figure 3-9. Drivers of broadband adoption 37

Figure 3-10. Causal link between broadband adoption and economic impact 37

Figure 4-1. Ghana: Current coverage levels by technology and area 47

Figure 4-2. Ghana: Coverage targets by technology and area 48

Figure 4-3. Ghana: Economic impact by sector 49

Figure 4-4. Ghana: Country-level economic impact 49

Figure 4-5. Ghana: Impact for remaining economic sectors (as % of their GDP) 54

Figure 5-1. Guatemala: Current coverage levels by technology and area 56

Figure 5-2. Guatemala: Coverage targets by technology and area 57

Figure 5-3. Guatemala: Country-level economic impact 58

Figure 5-4. Guatemala: Economic impact by sector 58

Figure 5-5. Guatemala: Impact for remaining economic sectors (as % of their GDP) 63

Figure 6-1. Saudi Arabia: Current coverage levels by technology and area 64

Figure 6-2. Saudi Arabia: Coverage targets under the regulatory obligations scenario 65

Figure 6-3. Saudi Arabia: Coverage targets under the national goals scenario 66

Figure 6-4. Saudi Arabia: Economic impact by sector under the regulatory obligations scenario 68

Figure 6-5. Saudi Arabia: Country-level economic impact under the regulatory obligations scenario 69

Figure 6-6. Saudi Arabia: Economic impact by sector under the national goals scenario 69

Figure 6-7. Saudi Arabia: Country-level economic impact under the national goals scenario 71

Figure 6-8. Saudi Arabia: Investment gap between different scenarios 76

Figure 6-9. Saudi Arabia: Impact for remaining economic sectors (as % of their GDP) under the national goals scenario 78

Appendix Tables 9

Table A-1. Variable description - national analysis 84

Table A-2. Descriptive statistics - national analysis 87

Table A-3. Variable description - sectoral analysis 88

Table A-4. Descriptive statistics - variables of sectoral analysis 89

Table A-5. Drivers of broadband investment 89

Table A-6. Drivers of broadband coverage 91

Table A-7. Drivers of broadband speed 93

Table A-8. Drivers of broadband prices 95

Table A-9. Drivers of broadband adoption 97

Table A-10. GDP impact of broadband 98

Table A-11. GDP impact of Broadband - by sector 100

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