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Title page 1

Contents 7

Foreword 14

Acknowledgments 17

About the Authors 19

Overview 21

Abbreviations 36

Part I. Setting the Stage 41

CHAPTER 1. A Framework for the Fiscal Frontier 42

A simple framework for how tax systems balance revenue, efficiency, and equity 42

Mapping countries to the fiscal frontier 52

References 58

CHAPTER 2. Efficiency and Equity in Current Tax Systems 59

Introduction 59

Tax mix across development levels 60

Efficiency shortcomings in domestic revenue mobilization 68

Equity shortcomings in domestic revenue mobilization 80

Efficiency meets equity: Priorities for reform 87

Annex 2A. Efficiency of the main tax instruments 91

Notes 95

References 97

Part II. A New Path to the Fiscal Frontier: Technology, Transparency, and Trust 107

CHAPTER 3. Technology in Tax Administration 108

Introduction 108

Growing use of technology for taxation 109

Use of technology for core tax functions 117

Essential ingredients for successful technology reforms 130

Policy lessons 134

Annex 3A. Sources for figure 3.6 136

Notes 138

References 139

CHAPTER 4. Transparency and Taxation of Top Economic Actors 146

Introduction 146

Top economic actors 148

The ABCD of international taxation 159

Opportunities to tax top economic actors 174

Notes 188

References 188

CHAPTER 5. Trust and the Political Economy of Taxation 199

Introduction 199

Politicians and citizens 204

Politicians and bureaucrats 217

Bureaucrats and citizens 223

Policy lessons for property tax reform 227

Notes 230

References 230

Part III. Toolkit and Applications 242

CHAPTER 6. Taxation for Environmental and Industrial Goals 243

Introduction 243

Environmental taxes 244

Tax policy for industrial goals 262

Notes 286

References 289

CHAPTER 7. How Much Tax Revenue to Collect and How? A Marginal Value of Public Funds Approach 299

Introduction 299

The WMVPF framework: Choosing how to raise revenue 301

Calculating WMVPFs: Three tax policy examples 303

Should a government raise additional revenue at all? 309

Moving away from optimal tax-to-GDP ratios 311

Annex 7A. The Welfare-Weighted Marginal Value of Public Funds 314

Notes 331

References 332

CHAPTER 8. Administrative Tax Data for Policy 334

Introduction 334

Innovative data to learn about the economy 337

Building collaborations: Practical models for every need 345

Analytical tools for big administrative data 355

Lurking in the shadows: What are we missing? 364

From tax records to data-driven policy making: A roadmap for strengthening tax data use 368

Note 370

References 370

CHAPTER 9. Policy Guidance 375

Introduction 375

How can countries identify tax reforms that are feasible and appropriate? 375

Linking feasibility and performance: The reform space 378

How can the 3Ts strengthen core tax instruments? 382

How should countries balance the tax mix? 390

How can countries build the tax systems of the future? 391

References 392

Tables 13

Table O.1. Reform pathways toward the fiscal frontier via the 3Ts 33

Table 2.1. Policy matrix to improve efficiency and equity in domestic tax systems 90

Table 3.1. Technology maturity in tax systems 135

Table 4.1. Millionaires by region, 2021 154

Table 4.2. Transparency and income taxation 187

Table 5.1. Trust and taxation 229

Table 6.1. Concentration of carbon emissions in South Africa 257

Table 6.2. Best practices for efficient and equitable environmental taxation 261

Table 6.3. Best practices for efficient and equitable investment tax incentives 285

Table 8.1. Suggested elements of data-sharing agreements 348

Table 8.2. Institutional design elements of secure access environments 353

Table 8.3. Policy priorities for strengthening tax data use 369

Table 9.1. Structural fundamentals 376

Table 9.2. Tax system performance: Distance to frontier 377

Table 9.3. Reform pathways toward the fiscal frontier 381

Table 9.4. Reform pathways for income taxation 383

Table 9.5. Reform pathways for consumption taxation 386

Table 9.6. Reform pathways for property taxation 388

Figures 10

Figure O.1. Stagnant tax revenues, growing fiscal pressure 23

Figure O.2. Tax systems in EMDEs are less efficient and less equitable 24

Figure O.3. The equity-efficiency frontier (holding revenue fixed) 25

Figure O.4. Countries close to and far from the frontier, by structural fundamentals 26

Figure O.5. The 3Ts: Accelerating progress and expanding possibilities 28

Figure 1.1. The fiscal frontier 44

Figure 1.2. The fiscal frontier and the status quo 45

Figure 1.3. The 3Ts and the expanded fiscal frontier 48

Figure 1.4. Fiscal frontiers and structural fundamentals 49

Figure 1.5. Fiscal frontiers at different revenue levels 51

Figure 1.6. Fiscal frontiers by tax-to-GDP ratios 55

Figure 1.7. Fiscal frontier for countries with strong and weak fundamentals 56

Figure 2.1. Revenue mix across income groups and regions 63

Figure 2.2. Tax system efficiency across levels of development, 2018-23 66

Figure 2.3. Inequality before and after taxes and transfers, by income level, 2018-23 67

Figure 2.4. Statutory tax rates on consumption, corporate, and personal income, 2019 69

Figure 2.5. SSC and payroll tax rates and wedges, by income group 70

Figure 2.6. Tax thresholds, by income group and region 71

Figure 2.7. Tax expenditures as a share of tax revenue, 2018-22 73

Figure 2.8. Tax efficiency indicators, by income group and region 79

Figure 2.9. Welfare impacts of taxes and transfers 83

Figure 2.10. Progressivity and redistribution of PIT, 2024 84

Figure 2.11. Welfare impacts of direct and indirect taxes 85

Figure 2.12. Taxes paid as a share of pretax income, average among poorest 50 percent 86

Figure 2.13. Average PIT threshold to poverty and prosperity standards 88

Figure 3.1. Diffusion of core government systems across countries over time 112

Figure 3.2. Technology adoption in tax administration, ISORA data, 2018-23 113

Figure 3.3. Innovative solutions adoption in tax administration, ISORA data, 2023 114

Figure 3.4. Data sharing in tax administration, OECD data, 2023 115

Figure 3.5. Pre-filling in tax administration, OECD data, 2023 116

Figure 3.6. Impacts of digital reforms on tax performance: Evidence from the literature since 2011 129

Figure 4.1. Importance of MNEs to economic activity and corporate tax revenues 150

Figure 4.2. Racing to the bottom in CIT rates 151

Figure 4.3. A nuanced take on tax competition 153

Figure 4.4. Annual income needed to belong to the richest 1 percent, 2023 155

Figure 4.5. Income composition of the top 0.1 percent, by country 157

Figure 4.6. Macroeconomic effective tax rates on labor income and capital, by country group and region, 2018 158

Figure 4.7. International taxation data generation process 160

Figure 4.8. Adoption of BORs 167

Figure 4.9. Factors that affect MNEs' investment decisions 183

Figure 4.10. New strategies for tax evasion and avoidance 185

Figure 5.1. Political actors and taxation 200

Figure 6.1. Environmentally related tax revenues and total carbon pricing over time, by income group 247

Figure 6.2. Earmarking of environmentally related taxes 252

Figure 6.3. Tax expenditures for investment, 2018-23 265

Figure 6.4. Tax incentives for investment, by tax and policy type, 2018-23 270

Figure 6.5. Revenue forgone from CIT tax expenditures for investment, by tax incentive and income group 272

Figure 6.6. Tax-related obstacles to business activity, 2018-25 282

Figure 8.1. Digital expansion in tax administrations, by income group 335

Figure 8.2. Administrative tax data generation process 338

Figure 8.3. Wage gains in Costa Rica, by type of move, 2006-17 340

Figure 8.4. Firm ownership in the Dominican Republic, 2010-18 340

Figure 8.5. Likelihood of switching jobs in Brazil, by age group, 1994-2017 341

Figure 8.6. VAT amounts declared by sellers and buyers in Uganda, 2013-16 341

Figure 8.7. Impact of road flooding on sales in Pakistan, 2011-18 342

Figure 8.8. County-level trade flows between formal firms in Kenya, 2015-19 342

Figure 8.9. Composition of top incomes in Honduras, 2011-19 343

Figure 8.10. Effective tax rate across the income distribution in Brazil, 2019 343

Figure 8.11. Reported consumption drops after becoming a business manager in Portugal, 2016-19 343

Figure 8.12. VAT rebates in Brazil, by income and consumption levels, 2023 344

Figure 8.13. Near-real-time information on consumer prices in Brazil 344

Figure 8.14. When do governments pay more? Brazil, 2018-23 345

Figure 8.15. Types of collaboration models 346

Figure 8.16. Simple descriptive analyses can be very informative 356

Figure 8.17. Bunching at a tax notch: Incentives and responses in Honduras 358

Figure 8.18. Regression discontinuity: Tax audit risk and recovered revenue in China 360

Figure 8.19. Using image-based ML to identify property characteristics in Pakistan 362

Figure 8.20. Tracking crises with e-invoicing data in Brazil 363

Figure 8.21. Limitations of administrative tax data 365

Figure 9.1. Locating countries in the reform space 379

Figure 9.2. Locating countries in the reform space: Regional classification 380

Boxes 9

Box 1.1. Moving toward the fiscal frontier: Brazil's consumption tax reform 46

Box 1.2. AI and the future of taxation in EMDEs 50

Box 1.3. Measurement considerations in mapping the fiscal frontier 52

Box 2.1. Structure of taxation across development levels 60

Box 2.2. How gaps between personal and corporate taxation create arbitrage 74

Box 2.3. Tax rate dispersion and misallocation 77

Box 2.4. Tax incidence in developing countries 81

Box 3.1. DPI and tax systems 110

Box 3.2. Technology solutions: From most revenue impactful to more tentative 117

Box 3.3. MM taxes: A double-edged sword 121

Box 3.4. AI and ML for tax systems in LMICs 124

Box 4.1. Limited data on MNEs' activities 149

Box 4.2. Architecture of the AEOI: FATCA and CRS 162

Box 4.3. Two-pillar solution to address corporate income tax erosion 171

Box 4.4. Taxing capital: Income or wealth? 175

Box 4.5. Cross-country comparison of PIT exemption thresholds 179

Box 5.1. A closer look at citizens' trust in the state 201

Box 5.2. Political regimes, citizen voice, and taxation 208

Box 5.3. State capacity for taxation 212

Box 5.4. Smart tax reform: Choosing the right strategy and timing 216

Box 5.5. Do SARAs deliver? 220

Box 5.6. Social norms and taxes 224

Box 6.1. Climate clubs and coalitions 255

Box 6.2. Taxonomy of CIT investment incentives 268

Box 6.3. Taxonomy of complementary nontax instruments 273

Box 7.1. Key takeaways on the marginal value of public funds 300

Box 7.2. How to use the WMVPF in practice 303

Box 7.3. Raising the VAT rate in Mexico 304

Box 7.4. Raising the top personal income tax rate in Mexico 306

Box 7.5. Improved tax administration versus raising the CIT rate in Indonesia 307

Box 7.6. Raising tax revenue in Mexico to fund a street-paving project 309

Box 8.1. Breaking data silos for smarter policy 349

Box 8.2. South Africa's National Treasury Secure Data Facility 351

Box 8.3. Ethical governance of tax data 367

Box 9.1. Revenue adequacy and the fiscal frontier 378

Box 9.2. Evidence-based fiscal policy 391

Box Figures 11

Figure B2.1.1. Tax revenue structure across development levels 61

Figure B2.2.1. Arbitrage wedges between PIT and CIT 75

Figure B2.3.1. Levels and Dispersion of CIT Rates 78

Figure B3.1.1. DPI, by income group 110

Figure B3.3.1. Impact of MM taxes on transaction values in Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia 123

Figure B4.5.1. PIT exemption thresholds and wage employment 179

Figure B5.1.1. Trust in government, by income group 201

Figure B5.1.2. Trust in government over time 202

Figure B5.3.1. Tax revenue and corruption, by income and regime type 214

Figure B7.6.1. Welfare change from two revenue-raising policies and one spending policy in Mexico 310

Annex Figures 11

Figure 2A.1. Top statutory income tax rates, by income group and type 94

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