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Title page 1

Contents 5

Acknowledgments 4

Foreword 7

Executive summary 9

1. Introduction to futures thinking and strategic foresight 13

1.1. Futures thinking and strategic foresight 13

1.2. The importance of futures thinking 13

1.3. Introducing the foresight brief series 14

1.4. The ITU approach to strategic foresight 15

1.5. Objectives of the 'Shaping the future of an African venture capital landscape' foresight brief 16

1.6. The case for venture capital in Africa 18

2. Sensing in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world 22

2.1. Exploring signals of change for a venture capital landscape 22

2.1.1. Evolving social landscape 23

2.1.2. Evolving technological landscape 23

2.1.3. Evolving economic landscape 24

2.1.4. Evolving environmental landscape 25

2.1.5. Evolving political landscape 25

2.1.6. Evolving legal landscape 26

2.1.7. Evolving ethical landscape 27

3. Analysing and refining drivers of change 29

3.1. Drivers and critical forces influencing future evolution of venture capital in Africa 29

3.2. Drivers 30

4. Visualizing possible future scenarios 34

4.1. Key drivers for exploring potential future scenarios 34

4.2. Wildcard events 36

4.3. Visualizing a wildcard future scenario 38

4.4. Exploring a range of scenarios 39

5. Prioritizing the desired scenario 41

5.1. Four transformational scenarios 41

5.2. Visualizing transformational scenarios 42

5.3. Stress-testing the scenarios 46

5.4. Narrowing down to the desired scenario 47

5.5. Identifying short-term ambition 48

5.6. Identifying a long-term vision 50

5.7. Enablers of the desired scenario 52

6. Actioning the desired future 54

6.1. Supporting the entrepreneurial lifecycle 54

6.2. A roadmap to maturity 55

6.3. Actions to drive future-ready VC ecosystems in Africa 56

7. Managing the ecosystem 60

7.1. Strength in stakeholder collaboration 60

7.2. Activating implementation mechanisms 61

Annex 64

Abbreviations 68

Glossary 70

References 72

Tables 6

Table 1. Actors in the VC value chain 19

Table 2. Drivers shaping the future of the VC landscape in Africa 29

Table 3. Drivers selected to explore the interplay shaping scenario development 35

Table 4. Plausible future scenarios 36

Table 5. Stress-testing the shortlisted scenarios against the objectives of the foresight study 46

Table 6. Proposed roadmap to realize the desired vision 57

Table 7. Platforms and structured mechanisms for stakeholder collaboration 62

Figures 6

Figure 1. VUCA 14

Figure 2. Interlinked objectives intended to shape the development of venture capital in Africa 17

Figure 3. Potential trajectories and outcomes 39

Figure 4. The entrepreneurial lifecycle 55

Figure 5. Six pillars of an integrated framework for action 56

Figure 6. A well-connected ecosystem 61