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Title page 1

Contents 5

Acknowledgments 4

Foreword 7

Executive summary 8

1. Introduction to futures thinking and strategic foresight 11

1.1. Futures thinking and strategic foresight 11

1.2. The importance of futures thinking 11

1.3. Introducing the foresight brief series 12

1.4. The ITU approach to strategic foresight 13

1.5. Objectives of the 'Creating smarter cities' foresight brief 14

1.6. The case for sustainable smart cities 15

1.7. Bridging the digital divide 16

2. Sensing in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world 19

2.1. Exploring signals of change for a smarter cities landscape 19

2.1.1. Evolving social landscape 19

2.1.2. Evolving technological landscape 20

2.1.3. Evolving economic landscape 22

2.1.4. Evolving environmental landscapes 23

2.1.5. Evolving political landscape 24

2.1.6. Evolving legal landscape 25

2.1.7. Evolving ethical landscape 27

3. Analysing and refining key drivers of change 30

3.1. Drivers and critical forces influencing future evolution of smart cities 30

3.2. Mega drivers and associated drivers 31

3.3. Weak signals with disruptive potential 33

4. Visualizing possible future scenarios 36

4.1. Key drivers for exploring potential future scenarios 36

4.2. Exploring a range of scenarios 37

4.3. Envisioning scenarios through the interplay of key drivers 38

4.4. Wildcard events 43

5. Prioritizing the desired scenario 46

5.1. Four transformational scenarios 46

5.2. Visualizing transformational scenarios 47

5.3. Visualizing a wildcard future scenario 55

5.4. Stress-testing the scenarios 57

5.5. Enablers of the desired scenario 58

6. Actioning the desired future 60

6.1. A roadmap to maturity 60

6.2. Actions to drive future-ready smart cities and communities 61

7. Managing the ecosystem 65

7.1. Strength in stakeholder collaboration 65

7.2. Activating implementation mechanisms 66

Annex 69

Abbreviations 71

Glossary 72

References 75

Tables 6

Table 1. Drivers shaping the future of the smart city landscape 31

Table 2. Mega drivers selected to explore the interplay shaping scenario development 37

Table 3. Stress-testing the shortlisted scenarios against the objectives of the foresight study 57

Table 4. Proposed roadmap to realize the desired vision 62

Table 5. Platforms and structured mechanisms for stakeholder collaboration 67

Figures 6

Figure 1. VUCA 12

Figure 2. Interlinked objectives intended to shape development of smart cities and communities 15

Figure 3. Potential trajectories and outcomes 38

Figure 4. Navigating policy alignment vs operational capacity 39

Figure 5. Navigating policy alignment and strategic support versus operational capacity 40

Figure 6. Navigating ecosystem and operational capacities versus policy alignment 41

Figure 7. Navigating policy alignment and strategic support versus operational and ecosystem capacity 42

Figure 8. Safe zone 47

Figure 9. Integrated4Qol 49

Figure 10. Shower of stars 51

Figure 11. Open everything 53

Figure 12. Pandemic refusal 55

Figure 13. Six pillars of an integrated framework for action 61

Figure 14. A well-connected ecosystem 65

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