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Title page 1

Contents 5

Acknowledgments 4

Foreword 7

Executive summary 9

1. Introduction to futures thinking and strategic foresight 13

1.1. Futures thinking and strategic foresight 13

1.2. The importance of futures thinking 13

1.3. Introducing the foresight brief series 14

1.4. The ITU approach to strategic foresight 15

1.5. Objectives of the 'Shaping the future of startups and small and medium enterprises' foresight brief 16

1.6. The case for startups and SMEs 18

2. Sensing in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world 21

2.1. Exploring signals of change for a startup and small and medium enterprise landscape 21

2.1.1. Evolving social landscape 21

2.1.2. Evolving technological landscape 22

2.1.3. Evolving economic landscape 23

2.1.4. Evolving environmental landscape 24

2.1.5. Evolving political landscape 24

2.1.6. Evolving legal landscape 25

2.1.7. Evolving ethical landscape 26

3. Analysing and refining key drivers of change 28

3.1. Drivers and critical forces influencing future evolution of startups and small and medium enterprises 28

3.2. Drivers 29

3.3. Weak signals with disruptive potential 31

4. Visualizing possible future scenarios 34

4.1. Key drivers for exploring potential future scenarios 34

4.2. Plausible future scenarios 35

4.3. Exploring a range of scenarios 36

4.4. Four transformational scenarios 37

4.5. Visualizing transformational scenarios 38

4.6. Wildcard events 43

5. Prioritizing the desired scenario 46

5.1. Stress-testing the scenarios 46

5.2. Narrowing down to the desired scenario 48

5.3. Enablers of the desired scenario 49

6. Actioning the desired future 52

6.1. A roadmap to maturity 52

6.2. Actions to drive future-ready startup and SME ecosystems 53

7. Managing the ecosystem 57

7.1. Strength in stakeholder collaboration 57

7.2. Activating implementation mechanisms 58

Annex 61

Glossary 64

References 66

Tables 6

Table 1. Drivers shaping the future of the startup and SME landscape 29

Table 2. Drivers selected to explore interplay shaping scenario development 34

Table 3. Plausible future scenarios 36

Table 4. Stress-testing the shortlisted scenarios against the objectives of the foresight study 47

Table 5. Proposed roadmap to realize the desired vision 54

Table 6. Platforms and structured mechanisms for stakeholder collaboration 59

Figures 6

Figure 1. VUCA 14

Figure 2. Interlinked objectives intended to shape the development of startups and small and medium enterprises 17

Figure 3. The entrepreneurial lifecycle 19

Figure 4. Potential trajectories and outcomes 37

Figure 5. Digital revolutionaries 38

Figure 6. One world, one framework 39

Figure 7. Everyone wins 40

Figure 8. Abundant connected constellation 42

Figure 9. Solopreneurs and tariffs 43

Figure 10. Six pillars of an integrated framework for action 53

Figure 11. A well-connected ecosystem 58

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