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Title page

Contents

Foreword 2

Acknowledgements 2

Abstract 3

Insights project introduction 3

1. Introduction 6

2. Options, thresholds and choices: conceptual and empirical design 8

3. Understanding migration journeys 12

3.1. The starting point of migration is hard to define 14

3.2. Migration plans mutate, destinations change 17

3.3. Journeys can be fast or slow 19

3.4. Everyone gets rich from migrants 21

3.5. Harassment, violence and deaths: the new normal 25

4. Does policy matter? 27

4.1. Trusted information is what counts 29

4.2. The power of normal 33

4.3. Essential services + economy 〉 migration policy 34

4.4. (Re)shaping, not preventing 36

5. Conclusions and recommendations 39

5.1. Conclusions 39

5.2. Three recommendations to manage migration better 40

References 43

Annex 1: List of interviews 46

Tables

Table 1. The velocity of journeys varies hugely (time spent travelling between origin and destination) 20

Figures

Figure 1. Getting to Europe involves crossing many borders (number of countries crossed, by nationality) 14

Figure 2. Journeys to Europe are expensive (average cost of journey by nationality) 21

Figure 3. Informing other migrants about weather conditions-screenshot from Facebook group 25

Figure 4. Border control has been a popular focus of European migration policies over the past 20 years 27

Figure 5. Danish government advert in Lebanese newspaper discouraging people from coming to Denmark 28

Figure 6. Public policies at destination often influence decisions (share of respondents that cited public policy in destination country) 35

Boxes

Box 1. Abdu's experience in the national service 15

Box 2. Fatima's moves in Syria 16

Box 3. A chance encounter enables Fatima to get to Berlin 18

Box 4. Haifa's velocity along the journey 20

Box 5. Senait's first experience of kidnapping 22

Box 6. Amira's negotiation with a smuggler 23

Box 7. The question posed on BBC Radio 2's Facebook page on 29 July 2015 28

Box 8. The limited effectiveness of information campaigns 32

Box 9. Does access to benefits act as a pull factor? 35

Box 10. Do fences change people's minds? 36

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