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Title page

Contents

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 6

ACRONYMS 7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8

1. Introduction 14

Background 14

Scope, Methods, and Contribution 15

Limitations and Caveats 16

Roadmap 17

2. Foundational Data and Analysis: RPS Resources and Displaced Fossil Generation 18

Overview 18

Renewable Generation Used for RPS Compliance 18

Displaced Fossil Generation 22

RPS Capacity Additions and Displaced Fossil Generation Capacity 24

3. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Damage Reduction Benefits 26

Introduction 26

Methods 27

Results 30

4. Air Pollution Emissions and Human Health and Environmental Benefits 32

Introduction 32

Methods 32

Results 35

5. Water Use Reduction Benefits 39

Introduction 39

Methods 40

Results 42

6. Gross Jobs and Economic Development Impacts 46

Introduction 46

Methods 47

Results 49

7. Wholesale Electricity Price Reduction Impacts 52

Introduction 52

Methods 52

Results 55

8. Natural Gas Price Reduction Impacts 57

Introduction 57

Methods 58

Results 61

9. Summary and Conclusions 63

References 66

Tables

Table 6.1. Estimated gross domestic jobs and economic impacts from RPS compliance 49

Figures

Figure ES-1. Benefits and impacts of new RE used to meet 2013 RPS compliance 10

Figure 1.1. States with RPS policies circa November 2015 14

Figure 2.1. Foundational data and analysis to support RPS benefits and impacts estimates 18

Figure 2.2. AVERT regions 20

Figure 2.3. New RE for RPS compliance based on plant location 21

Figure 2.4. New RE delivered to each AVERT region for 2013 RPS compliance 22

Figure 2.5. Displaced fossil generation by state 23

Figure 2.6. Displaced fossil generation by AVERT region 24

Figure 2.7. RPS capacity additions by state 25

Figure 3.1. Summary of life cycle GHG emissions from electricity generation technologies 27

Figure 3.2. GHG benefits methods overview 28

Figure 3.3. Combustion-related CO₂ emissions displaced by state from RPS compliance 30

Figure 3.4. Life cycle GHG emissions impacts of RPS compliance 31

Figure 3.5. Estimated benefits of RPS compliance due to reduced global climate change damages 31

Figure 4.1. Health and environmental benefits methods overview 33

Figure 4.2. Change in emissions of (a) SO₂, (b) NOx, and (c) PM2.5 from RPS compliance 36

Figure 4.3. National benefits of RPS compliance due to reduced health and environmental damages 37

Figure 4.4. Regional benefits of RPS compliance due to reduced health and environmental damages from particulate matter under the 'COBRA Low' estimates 38

Figure 5.1. Summary of operational water withdrawal and consumption requirements of electricity generation technologies by technology and cooling system 40

Figure 5.2. Water use benefits methods overview 41

Figure 5.3. National water withdrawal (left) and consumption (right) benefits of RPS compliance 42

Figure 5.4. National water withdrawal and consumption benefits of RPS Compliance, by month 43

Figure 5.5. Water withdrawal and consumption benefits of RPS compliance, by state 43

Figure 5.6. Regional variation of water withdrawal and consumption benefits of RPS compliance 44

Figure 5.7. Fresh and saline water withdrawal (left) and consumption (right) benefits of RPS compliance 45

Figure 6.1. Economic development impacts methods overview 47

Figure 6.2. Estimated total gross domestic jobs from RPS compliance 49

Figure 6.3. Gross domestic construction and O&M jobs from RPS compliance, by technology 50

Figure 6.4. Gross onsite jobs from construction and O&M from RPS compliance, by state 51

Figure 7.1. Wholesale electricity price impacts methods overview 53

Figure 7.2. Example supply curve 53

Figure 7.3. Estimated impacts of RPS compliance on consumer savings from wholesale price reductions depending on start of decay 56

Figure 8.1. Natural gas price impacts methods overview 58

Figure 8.2. Derived inverse price elasticity of supply curve 59

Figure 8.3. Application of inverse elasticity curve to 2013 RPS generation under two bounding scenarios 60

Figure 8.4. Estimated impacts of RPS compliance on natural gas consumer bill savings by sector under two bounding scenarios 62

Figure 8.5. Natural gas consumer bill savings by state under two bounding scenarios 62

Figure 9.1. Benefits and impacts of new RE used to meet 2013 RPS compliance 64

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