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Title page

Contents

Acknowledgements 3

1. Summary 8

1.1. Introduction 8

1.2. Methods 8

1.3. Implications 11

2. Introduction 12

2.1. Policy context 12

2.2. Research aims and objectives 14

2.3. Report structure 15

3. Methodology 16

3.1. Process evaluation 16

3.2. Impact evaluation 18

4. Pilot implementation 22

4.1. Ethos and aspirations 22

4.2. Cultural change 22

4.3. Implementation timing 23

4.4. Pilot guidance 24

4.5. Pilot training 24

4.6. Building capability 25

4.7. Stakeholder perceptions 26

4.8. Models of delivery 28

5. Delivering Out of Court Disposals 29

5.1. Volume of OOCDs 29

5.2. Likelihood of using Out of Court Disposals 29

5.3. Setting conditions 30

5.4. Repeat Out of Court Disposals 33

6. Partnership working and compliance 36

6.1. Partnership working 36

6.2. Compliance 37

6.3. Breaches 40

7. Pilot outcomes 42

7.1. Re-offending 42

7.2. Victims and Offenders 44

7.3. Domestic Violence and Hate Crime 46

7.4. Outcome of Existing OOCDs 49

8. Economic evaluation of the pilot 51

8.1. Introduction 51

8.2. Summary of findings 51

8.3. Unquantified impacts 53

8.4. Data limitations 54

8.5. Cost benefit conclusion 55

9. Conclusions and implications 56

9.1. Wider implications 56

References 59

Appendix 1. OOCD monitoring data 60

Appendix 2. Assessment of Time Trends in the Volume of Issued OOCD 63

Appendix 3. Qualitative data 66

Appendix 4. Compliance data analysis 67

Appendix 5. Multivariate analysis 69

Appendix 6. Economic technical supplement 75

Tables

Table 2.1. Two-tier OOCD Framework: Conditional Cautions (CC) and Community Resolutions (CR) 13

Table 3.1. Quantitative data, periods of assessment and their limitations 18

Table 4.1. Key operational dimensions for the OOCD pilot areas 28

Table 5.1. Repeat OOCDs by pilot and counterfactual areas 34

Table 5.2. Offence categories for the first OOCD in Q1 and repeat OOCDs 35

Table 6.1. Actions taken following breaches in pilot areas 40

Table 7.1. Number and proportion of offenders in the pilot and two counterfactual areas who re-offended within the first three months of receiving an OOCD in Q1 of the pilot period 43

Table 8.1. Implementation, Monetised staff hours, 2014/15 prices (rounded) 51

Table 8.2. Status quo, 2014/15 prices (rounded) 52

Table 8.3. Two-tier framework, 2014/15 prices (rounded) 52

Figures

Figure 5.1. The proportion of CC conditions by categories across the pilot areas over the pilot period (from 3rd November 2014 to 31st October 2015) 32

Figure 6.1. Cumulative compliance rates over 24 weeks from OOCD issue date 39

Figure 7.1. Share of Adult OOCDs in Counterfactual Police Areas 49

Figure 7.2. Share of Adult OOCDs in Pilot Police Areas 50

Appendix Tables

Table A1.1. Data extracts provided by the pilot areas 61

Table A1.2. Limitations of the data provided by the counterfactual areas 61

Table A2.1. Results of a regression of the proportion of OOCDs issued on an indicator of pilot area versus the rest of England and Wales, time and their interaction 64

Table A4.1. Limitations of the compliance data from the pilot areas and implications 67

Table A4.2. Available date data for analysis of compliance 68

Table A5.1. Results of the logistic regression, predicting the likelihood of receiving a Conditional Caution as a function of available offender protected characteristics and controls 71

Table A5.2. Results of the logistic regression, predicting the likelihood of receiving a Conditional Caution as a function of available victim protected characteristics and controls 73

Table A6.1. Estimated number of staff hours (rounded) 75

Table A6.2. 2014/15 Prices 76

Table A6.3. Implementation, monetised staff hours, 2014/15 prices (rounded) 76

Table A6.4. PND outcomes in England and Wales, 2014 79

Table A6.5. Average cost by OOCD type across all manners of disposal 80

Table A6.6. Crown Prosecution Service cost per defendant, Magistrates' courts 80

Table A6.7. Estimated costs and benefits of the status quo (rounded), 2014/15 prices 81

Table A6.8. Estimated costs and benefits of the OOCD reform (rounded), 2014/15 prices 83

Appendix Figures

Figure A6.1. Diagram of volume flows under the status quo 77

Figure A6.2. Diagram of volume flows under the two-tier framework 82

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