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Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: THE CHALLENGES OF A NEW ERA 5

Strategic Uncertainty in Action: Two Case Studies 6

The ROK-Japan Trade Dispute and Its Impact On Semiconductor Value Chains 6

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Supply-Chain Disruptions 6

Recommendations for An Uncertain World 6

1. INTRODUCTION 7

2. STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY AND SHIFTING GVC RISKS 9

Sources of Strategic Uncertainty 9

Shifting Risks to Global Value Chains 11

Protectionist Pressures and Aggressive Trade Policy 11

Political Risks 12

Supply-Chain Security 13

1. Governmental policy efforts on supply-chain security 14

2. Private Efforts on GVC Security 16

Unexpected Shocks and the COVID-19 Pandemic 17

3. CASE STUDIES 18

A. ROK-Japan Trade Dispute and its Impact on Semiconductor Supply Chains 19

B. Reshoring: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Supply-Chain Disruptions 23

4. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 26

5. FURTHER RESEARCH 28

Advisory Members (alphabetical order) 28

ABOUT THE AUTHORS 29

Figures

Figure 1. US Manufacturing Employment, 1970-2020 9

Figure 2. Gallup Polling on US Public Opinion of China 10

Figure 3. Percent Parts and Components for Electrical and Electronic Goods Imported from China in 2018 11

Figure 4. Progress on Commitments from US-China Phase I Trade Deal 12

Figure 5. Survey of Early Impact of COVID-19 on North American Companies. (February 22-March 5, 2020) 17

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