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Title page
Contents
Foreword 6
Acknowledgements 8
Abbreviations 9
Executive Summary 10
Thematic Focus: Green Fiscal Reforms 16
Chapter 1. Context and Challenges 18
EU Context - 2050 target of Climate Neutrality 19
Challenges in becoming Climate Neutral 22
Chapter 2. Carbon Taxes: Lessons and Implications for the four countries in focus: Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland and Romania 26
Key lessons from experience with carbon taxes 27
Implications for countries of focus - Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland and Romania 32
Chapter 3. Impact assessment for carbon tax reforms in the four countries of focus - an illustrative example 36
Assumptions 38
Results 39
Chapter 4. Fossil Fuel Subsidies 51
Experience with the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies 52
Quantification of and options for the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies in the four EU countries in focus 53
Chapter 5. Green Public Investment 61
Importance of and trends in green public investment in the EU 62
Assessment of green public investment: illustration from Poland 64
Chapter 6. Conclusions 67
Annex 1. EU ETS 70
Annex 2. Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) 72
Annex 3. Illustrative carbon tax rates for non-ETS sectors 76
Annex 4. Carbon Pricing Assessment Tool 79
Annex 5. Methodological note on household impact of carbon taxes in Poland 81
References 83
Table 2.1. Illustrative carbon tax rates for non-ETS sectors for Romania 34
Table 4.1. Total government support to fossil fuels in Bulgaria 56
Table 4.2. Fiscal support to production and consumption of fossil fuels in Bulgaria 56
Table 4.3. Total government support to fossil fuels in Croatia 57
Table 4.4. Fiscal support to production and consumption of fossil fuels in Croatia 57
Table 4.5. Total government support to fossil fuels in Poland 58
Table 4.6. Fiscal support to production and consumption of fossil fuels in Poland 58
Table 4.7. Total government support to fossil fuels in Romania 59
Figure ES.1. Change in GDP due to revenue-neutral carbon tax compared to business-as-usual 11
Figure ES.2. France - Impact of carbon tax on emissions and jobs in the manufacturing sector 11
Figure ES.3. Emissions reductions induced by the carbon tax in the four countries 12
Figure ES.4. Emissions trajectory with and without carbon tax - example of Romania 12
Figure ES.5. Fossil fuel subsidies (stock) in EU27 by sector 14
Figure ES.6. New estimates of fossil fuel subsidies for selected EU countries 14
Figure 1.1. EU Climate Target Plan 2030 - key contributors and policy tools 19
Figure 1.2. Production vs consumption-based CO2 emissions 20
Figure 1.3. GHG emissions under ETS and under non-ETS sectors (ESD, Effort Sharing Decision), EU27, Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland and Romania 21
Figure 1.4. GHG emission reduction, actual (1990 - 2018) and required (until 2030 and 2050) to meet the European Green Deal commitments 21
Figure 1.5. Environmental tax revenues 22
Figure 1.6. Fossil fuel subsidies in four EU countries 22
Figure 1.7. Change in GHG emissions by source sector, 1990 - 2018 23
Figure 1.8. GHG emissions in transport (including international aviation), 1990 - 2018 24
Figure 1.9. Primary energy production, selected years, 1995 - 2019, based on tons of oil equivalent 24
Figure 2.1. Estimates of GDP impact in the US from a carbon tax (of $50/ton CO2 in 2020 increasing by 2%) with different recycling options 28
Figure 2.2. Estimated change in GDP due to revenue-neutral carbon tax compared to business-as-usual 28
Figure 2.3. France - Estimated impact of carbon tax on emissions and jobs in the manufacturing sector 29
Figure 3.1. Emissions reductions induced by the carbon tax in the four countries 39
Figure 3.2. Emissions trajectory with and without carbon tax - example of Romania 39
Figure 3.3. Tax revenues from the carbon tax in non-ETS sectors and subsidy phase-out 40
Figure 3.4. Time trajectory of the additional revenues - example of Bulgaria 40
Figure 3.5. GDP impact of carbon tax imposition and recycling of revenues to reduce PIT - Bulgaria 41
Figure 3.6. GDP impact of carbon tax imposition and recycling of revenues to reduce PIT - Croatia 41
Figure 3.7. Change in labor demand by economic sector (Paris-Aligned scenario, Croatia) 43
Figure 3.8. Change in labor demand by profession (Paris-Aligned scenario, Croatia) 44
Figure 3.9. Change in labor demand by wage group in the Low-Ambition scenario - examples of Bulgaria and Poland 44
Figure 3.10. Change in ambient air pollution - Poland 45
Figure 3.11. Raw-data relation between road fatalities and traffic congestion to motor fuel pricesacross space and time - example of EU27 in 2018... 46
Figure 3.12. Change in road fatalities and traffic congestion due to carbon taxes - Poland 46
Figure 3.13. Distribution of consumption incidence from taxing carbon in the Low-Ambitionand Paris-Aligned scenario and using revenues to... 47
Figure 4.1. Stages of support to fossil fuels 54
Figure 4.2. New estimates of fossil fuel subsidies for four EU countries 55
Figure 4.3. New estimates of fossil fuel subsidies for the four countries, structure of fiscal support to FFS 55
Figure 5.1. Government environmental protection expenditure 63
Boxes
Box 2.1. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism 30
Box 3.1. Estimation of output and employment multipliers for EU27 and a subset of 11 EU countries 41
Box 3.2. Impact of carbon taxes on Polish households 47
Box 4.1. Methodology for estimation of fossil fuel subsidies in the four countries in focus 54
Box 5.1. Green Financing 63
Box 5.2. Methodology to estimate green public investment in Poland 65
Box Tables
Table B3.2.1. Share of the Population At Risk of Poverty 49
Box Figures
Figure B3.1.1. Output effect from raising environmental and labor taxes by 1 percent of GDP in EU27 countries 42
Figure B3.1.2. Employment effect from raising environmental and labor taxes by 1 percent of GDP in a subset of 11 EU countries 42
Figure B3.2.1. Upper-case scenario 48
Annex Tables
Table A2.1. Structure of environmental tax revenues, percent of total, 2019 74
Annex Figures
Figure A1.1. Allowance prices in various ETSs 70
Figure A1.2. Annual average price 70
Figure A1.3. Revenues from the auctioning of emission allowances 2016 - 2018 71
Figure A2.1. GHG emissions in ESD sectors, 2010 - 2019, and 2030 projections 72
Figure A2.2. GHG emissions, 2011=100 72
Figure A2.3. Environmental tax revenues, 2019 73
Figure A2.4. Environmental tax revenues 73
Figure A2.5. Taxes on pollution and resources 73
Figure A4.1. CPAT model structure 80
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