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국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색

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동의어 포함

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Title page

Contents

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Data 7

2.1. Consumer Pyramid Household Survey (CPHS) 7

2.2. NSS surveys and other data sources 8

2.3. Differences between CPHS and NSS consumption surveys 10

2.4. Addressing differences in instrument design 12

2.5. Addressing differences in sampling design 13

3. Comparing CPHS to benchmark surveys 15

3.1. Non-expenditure variables 15

3.2. Expenditure 23

4. Two approaches to measuring poverty and inequality using the CPHS 28

4.1. Approach 1 28

4.2. Approach 2 35

5. Results 40

5.1. Main estimates of poverty and inequality 40

5.2. Robustness analysis 42

6. Corroborative evidence 49

6.1. Headcount poverty has declined after 2011 with larger reductions in rural areas 49

6.2. In the years following 2015, poverty reduction rates are highest in 2017-2018 and moderated in 2019 55

6.3. A rise in urban poverty in 2016 followed by a rapid rise in consumption in 2017 57

6.4. No rise in consumption inequality since 2011, but indications of a rise in 2019 59

7. Conclusion 64

References 66

Appendix 1. Reweighting Results 72

Appendix 2. Implementing Approach 1 77

Appendix 3. Implementing Approach 2 79

Appendix 4. Additional Estimates of poverty and inequality 85

Appendix 5. Inspecting Usual Consumption Expenditure 89

Tables

Table 1. Comparison of levels and trends in nominal consumption per capita in CPHS and National Account Statistics (NAS) 24

Table 2. Regression coefficients from the imputation model 33

Table 3. Mean consumption per capita based on di erent imputation models and surveys 54

Table 4. Estimates of poverty headcount at 1.90 line based on two variants of Approach 2 82

Table 5. Sensitivity of poverty and inequality estimates to rounding errors 91

Figures

Figure 1. Percentage of samples added and deleted over survey waves. Notes: Based on Vyas (2020) 9

Figure 2. Key demographic indicators from benchmark NSS surveys and CPHS 16

Figure 3. Access to services and asset ownership: NFHS and CPHS 2015 (panel (a); top), NFHS and CPHS 2019 (panel (b); bottom) 18

Figure 4. State level educational attainment in PLFS, Reported CPHS and Reweighted CPHS: Below primary education shares (panel (a); top left),... 20

Figure 5. Comparison of education levels with NSS 75th round survey on education consumption (2017-18): All adults (panel (a); top), Male... 21

Figure 6. Comparison of average monthly salaries (panel (a); top) and daily wages (panel (b); bottom ) across CPHS and PLFS 22

Figure 7. Inequality in monthly salaries and daily casual wages afterreweighting: Salaried Workers (panel (a), top); Casual wage workers... 23

Figure 8. Variance of log consumption per capita 25

Figure 9. Third moment of log consumption per capita using reported CPHS: Rural (panel (a); top) and Urban (panel (b); bottom) 26

Figure 10. Third moment of log consumption per capita 27

Figure 11. Third moment of log consumption per capita based on reweighted CPHS and 35 years of NSS consumption expenditure survey rounds 28

Figure 12. Net sample additions and the second and third moment of log consumption per capita by wave 29

Figure 13. Three moments of log consumption per capita: Mean (panel (a); top), Variance (panel (b); middle), Third moment (panel (c); bottom)... 34

Figure 14. Parameters for method of matching moments: a (panel (a); top), b (panel (b); middle), σ2 (panel (c); bottom) 44

Figure 15. Headcount poverty estimates at the $1.90 line 45

Figure 16. Gini measure of inequality 46

Figure 17. Poverty Headcount at $1.90 line 46

Figure 18. Inequality based on Gini measure 47

Figure 19. Headcount poverty rates after stratifying the rural and urban samples by household-level indicators: more than 3 adult members (panel... 48

Figure 20. Backward predictions of poverty headcount at $1.90 for 2004 based on previous attempts and the two approaches 50

Figure 21. Mean consumption per capita from NAS and imputed NSS into CPHS 51

Figure 22. Relationship between real rural wage growth and rate of rural poverty reduction 53

Figure 23. Di erences in poverty headcounts using consumption imputed into CPHS and PLFS 55

Figure 24. Growth in casual wages is historically correlated with reduction in poverty 56

Figure 25. Growth in night-time lights and sales of fast-moving consumer goods in Nielsen surveys 58

Figure 26. Inequality reduction between 2009-2013 and 2015-2019 across the world 60

Figure 27. Mean consumption growth across consumption quintiles in IHDS-3 and CPHS 61

Figure 28. Changes in gross wealth inequality from AIDIS surveys of 2013 and 2018 62

Figure 29. Changes in Gini measure of inequality over time 63

Figure 30. Real casual wages grew while salaried wages fell between 2011 and 2017 63

Figure 31. Growth in real incomes of agricultural households between 2013 and 2019 64

Appendix Figures

Figure 1. State level educational attainment in PLFS, Reported CPHSand Reweighted CPHS: Below primary education shares (panel (a); topleft),... 72

Figure 2. Deciles of monthly salaries and daily casual income: Monthly salaried incomes (panel (a); top), Daily casual wages (panel (b); bottom) 73

Figure 3. Key Labor Market Indicators: Labor Force Participation Rate (panel (a); top), Worker Population Ratio (panel (b); bottom) 74

Figure 4. Key Labor Market Indicators: Female Labor Force Participation Rate 75

Figure 5. Composition of workforce across PLFS and CPHS: Share of Salaried Workers (panel (a); top-left), Share of casual wage workers (panel(b);... 76

Figure 6. Share of household consuming premium goods and evolution overtimein CPHS: Share of households consuming items in CPHS and... 77

Figure 7. Comparison of principal industry code of occupation of households in CPHS and NSS-2011 78

Figure 8. Examining the goodness of fit for mixed normal distributions: CPHS 2015-16 (panel (a); top), CPHS 2019-20 (panel (b); bottom) 79

Figure 9. Changes in the relative ranking of households after transformations: Approach 1 (panel (a); top), Approach 2 (panel (b); bottom) 80

Figure 10. Changes in estimates of poverty (panel (a); top) and inequality (panel (b); bottom) based on di erent approaches 83

Figure 11. Real rural wages 2015-2017 84

Figure 12. Headcount poverty rate since 2015 at the international 1.90 poverty line: Rural (panel (a); top), Urban (panel (b); bottom) 85

Figure 13. Headcount poverty rate since 2015 at: 3.30 line (panel (a); top), 5.50 line (panel (b); bottom) 86

Figure 14. Gini measures of inequality: Rural (panel (a); top), Urban (panel (b); bottom) 87

Figure 15. Poverty Gap (panel (a); top) and Mean Log Deviation (panel (b); bottom) 88

Figure 16. Fraction of households by reported levels of consumption 90