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Title page

Contents

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 6

2. Bilateral Balance Accounting with Gravity 11

2.1. Structural Gravity and Bilateral Trade Imbalances 12

2.1.1. Bilateral Imbalances Through the Lens of Structural Gravity 12

2.1.2. Proportional Bilateral Imbalances 14

2.1.3. Estimating Trade Wedges and Multilateral Resistance Terms 16

2.2. Bilateral Balance Accounting 19

2.2.1. Data 19

2.2.2. Variance Decomposition for Proportional Bilateral Imbalances 20

3. Bilateral Imbalances in a Dynamic Quantitative Trade Model 24

3.1. Model Assumptions 24

3.1.1. Preferences and Endowments 25

3.1.2. Technologies 26

3.1.3. Market Structure 27

3.1.4. Steady State 27

3.2. Calibration and Counterfactual Parameter Changes 29

3.2.1. Calibration 30

3.2.2. Exact-hat Algebra 32

3.3. Global Trade-Wedge Symmetry 34

3.3.1. Assumptions 34

3.3.2. Impact of Trade Patterns 34

3.3.3. Impact on Macro Outcomes and the Global Economy 37

3.4. Financial Autarky 39

3.4.1. Assumptions 39

3.4.2. Impact on Trade Patterns 39

4. Properties of Trade-Wedge Asymmetries and the Impact of Trade Policy 40

4.1. Properties of Aggregate and Sectoral Asymmetries 41

4.1.1. Aggregate Trade-Wedge Asymmetries 41

4.1.2. Sectoral Trade-Wedge Asymmetries 43

4.2. Trade-Cost Asymmetries in a Single Market 46

4.2.1. Trade Policy and Trade-Cost Asymmetries 46

4.2.2. Cross-Sectional Evidence on the Single Market Effect 47

4.2.3. Evidence on the Single-Market Effect from E.U. Accessions 48

4.2.4. Extending the Single Market Effect to Non-E.U. Countries 50

4.3. U.S.-China Trade War 52

4.3.1. Assumptions 52

4.3.2. Impact on Trade Patterns and Macro Outcomes 53

5. Conclusion 54

References 58

A. Appendix 63

A.1. Approximating Bilateral Trade Imbalances 63

A.2. Variance Decomposition for 1995-1999 63

A.2.1. Data 63

A.2.2. Variance Decomposition 64

A.3. Dynamic Model 65

A.3.1. Agents' Optimality 65

A.3.2. Steady-State Optimal Savings 66

A.3.3. Steady-State Net Exports 66

A.4. Exact-Hat Algebra 67

A.4.1. Key Outcomes and "Own Spending" Shares 67

A.4.2. Changes in Trade Costs and Productivity 67

A.4.3. Financial Autarky 69

A.5. Additional Details on Counterfactuals 70

A.5.1. Bilateral Exposure and Global Trade-Wedge Symmetry 70

A.5.2. Financial Autarky 73

A.5.3. Sources and Concordances for U.S.-China Trade War Tariffs 74

A.6. Eaton and Kortum (2002) 74

A.7. Dollar-Value versus Proportional Bilateral Imbalances 75

A.8. Appendix Tables 79

Table 1. Bilateral trade flows and imbalances, 40 economies and Rest of the World 20

Table 2. Proportional bilateral imbalances, linear decomposition terms 21

Table 3. Calibration overview 30

Table 4. Macroeconomic impacts of global trade-wedge symmetry 38

Table 5. Aggregate asymmetries in trade wedges 42

Table 6. Sectoral bilateral trade-wedge asymmetries and their contribution to aggregate asymmetries 44

Table 7. Caliendo and Parro (2015) measure of sectoral trade-cost asymmetries 46

Table 8. Trade-cost asymmetries and E.U. membership 48

Table 9. Estimated impact of E.U. accession on sectoral trade-wedge asymmetries 50

Figure 1. U.S. bilateral net exports 7

Figure 2. Proportional imbalances in U.S. bilateral net exports 17

Figure 3. Approximated and actual trade imbalances 21

Figure 4. Variance decomposition 22

Figure 5. Proportional bilateral imbalances under global trade-wedge symmetry 33

Figure 6. U.S. bilateral net exports under global trade-wedge symmetry 35

Figure 7. Decomposing changes in U.S. bilateral net exports under trade-wedge symmetry 36

Figure 8. Proportional bilateral imbalances under financial autarky 40

Figure 9. U.S. bilateral net exports under financial autarky 41

Figure 10. Model-implied trade-wedge asymmetries in U.S. bilateral trade 43

Figure 11. Proportional imbalances with E.U. trade-wedge symmetry in non-EU economies 51

Figure 12. Macroeconomic impacts of E.U. trade-wedge symmetry in non-E.U. economies 52

Figure 13. U.S. bilateral net exports in the wake of U.S.-China trade war 53

Figure 14. Decomposing changes in U.S. bilateral net exports after U.S.-China trade war 55

Figure 15. Impact of U.S.-China trade war on real GDP and consumption 56

Table A1. Sample of economies 79

Table A2. Sector sample 80

Table A3. Sector sample and trade elasticities 81

Table A4. Trade-cost changes as a result of the USA-CHN trade war 82

Figure A1. Proportional bilateral imbalances, 2010-14 versus 1995-99 64

Figure A2. Variance decomposition for 1995-99 65

Figure A3. Bilateral exposures 71

Figure A4. Changes in bilateral exposures due to global trade-wedge symmetry 72

Figure A5. Impact of financial autarky on real GDP and consumption 73

Figure A6. Accounting for economy-pair variation in the simple differences of bilateral flows 76

Figure A7. Accounting for economy-pair variation in proportional bilateral imbalances 78

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