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Title page
Contents
Preface 4
Acknowledgements 8
Executive summary: Job resilience amidst rising fragility 9
1. Labour market resilience will be tested in the near term 14
Growth has proved to be resilient amidst rising fragility 14
Economic resilience held labour market conditions steady in 2023 17
Looking ahead, there are risks that job creation will deteriorate further 23
Persistent decent work deficits are undermining long-run progress 25
References 30
2. Employment and social trends by region 31
Overview 31
Africa 32
Labour market trends in North Africa 32
Labour market trends in sub-Saharan Africa 33
Data challenges for evidence-based labour migration governance in Africa 34
Americas 36
Labour market trends in Latin America and the Caribbean 36
Stagnating labour productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean 38
Labour market trends in North America 38
Arab States 39
Labour market trends in the Arab States 39
Labour market implications of forced displacements 41
Asia and the Pacific 42
Labour market trends in Asia and the Pacific 43
Informality and new forms of work in Asia and the Pacific 44
Europe and Central Asia 46
Labour market trends in Europe and Central Asia 46
Mixed pictures of youth unemployment in Europe 48
References 50
3. Labour shortages amidst unmet demand for decent work 54
Overview 54
A growing demand for labour 55
Labour demand: Unfilled vacancies in advanced economies 55
Local and global consequences of labour and skills shortages 57
Labour supply 57
Labour force participation: Are fewer people working or looking for jobs? 58
Hours worked: Mean and total hours have diverged 60
Do labour markets fail to adjust? 62
Labour shortages might become entrenched 65
Concluding remarks: Priorities for action 66
References 68
Appendix A. Groupings of countries by region and income level 74
Appendix B. ILO modelled estimates 76
Appendix C. Tables of labour market indicators by regional groups 77
Table 1.1. Jobs gap and jobs gap rate, 2019-23, by sex, world and income group 20
Table 1.2. Labour force participation rates by income group, 2019-25 24
Table 1.3. Unemployment and unemployment rate, 2019-25, by sex, world and income group 25
Table 1.4. Working poverty, 2020-23, world and by country income group 27
Table 2.1. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Africa, 2010-25 33
Table 2.2. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Americas, 2010-25 37
Table 2.3. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Arab States, 2010-25 40
Table 2.4. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Asia and the Pacific, 2010-25 43
Table 2.5. Estimates and projections of working hours, employment, unemployment and labour force, regional and subregional, Europe and Central Asia, 2010-25 47
Figure 1.1. Projected GDP growth in 2023, comparing October 2022 and October 2023 outlooks 15
Figure 1.2. GDP growth outlook (percentage change) 16
Figure 1.3. Recent and projected changes in inflation 17
Figure 1.4. Total labour force participation rates 18
Figure 1.5. Unemployment rates 19
Figure 1.6. Employment growth, 2020-23, by sex and country income groups 20
Figure 1.7. Mean weekly hours actually worked per employed person, 2019 and 2023, by country income group and sex 21
Figure 1.8. Annual real wage growth in 2023 22
Figure 1.9. Employment growth, 2023-25, by sex and country income groups 23
Figure 1.10. Gender gap in participation rates, 2023 and 2025 26
Figure 1.11. Youth and adult unemployment rates 26
Figure 1.12. Informal employment as share of total employment, 2004-24 27
Figure 1.13. Growth of population aged 20 to 64, by time period and country income group (compound annual percentages) 29
Figure 2.1. International stock of migrant workers, Africa and subregions, total and female share, 2010-19 35
Figure 2.2. Average annual productivity growth rate, 2015-23 38
Figure 2.3. Gender disparities in labour market outcomes in the Arab States, 2023 41
Figure 2.4. Informal employment rates, Asia and the Pacific and subregions, 2004-23 45
Figure 2.5. Prevailing youth unemployment rates, compared with highs and lows between 2003 and 2023, European Union 49
Figure 3.1. Channels of labour market adjustment and resulting imbalances 55
Figure 3.2. Job vacancies in selected (advanced) economies, January 2002 to September 2023 (standard deviations from mean) 56
Figure 3.3. Female labour force participation rates compared with the pre-pandemic historical trend (deviation from trend in percentage points) 58
Figure 3.4. Youth labour force participation 59
Figure 3.5. Youth NEET, by sex and income group (percentages of the population aged 15 to 24) 60
Figure 3.6. Total hours versus mean hours actually worked per employed person 61
Figure 3.7. Number of sick days per worker and year and percentage increase, 2019-22 62
Boxes
Box 1.1. Investment levels fell modestly in the face of higher borrowing costs 15
Box 1.2. Global spillovers: Risks of deteriorating GDP that could exacerbate employment challenges 16
Box 1.3. Baby boom versus baby bust: The labour market impacts of inflation in the 2020s compared with the 1970s 29
Box 2.1. Impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on total employment in the Occupied Palestinian Territory 39
Box 3.1. Dual-track global skills partnerships 67
Table C1. World 77
Table C2. Africa 79
Table C3. North Africa 81
Table C4. Sub-Saharan Africa 83
Table C5. Latin America and the Caribbean 85
Table C6. North America 87
Table C7. Arab States (non-GCC) 89
Table C8. Arab States (GCC) 91
Table C9. East Asia 93
Table C10. South-East Asia 95
Table C11. South Asia 97
Table C12. The Pacific 99
Table C13. Northern, Southern and Western Europe 101
Table C14. Eastern Europe 103
Table C15. Central and Western Asia 105
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