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Title page

Contents

Glossary 4

Key industry insights and developments 5

Executive summary 6

1. Introduction 8

1.1. Government direction to monitor domestic airline services 8

2. Industry developments 9

2.1. Passenger levels and capacity have settled after a tumultuous few years 9

2.2. International travel showing strong growth 10

2.3. ACCC proposed various reforms in response to Aviation Green Paper 11

2.4. Concerns about pilot shortages continue as regional services disrupted 12

2.5. ACCC court action against Qantas for allegedly selling tickets to cancelled flights 12

2.6. Bonza grows fleet and route network after cancellation setbacks 13

2.7. Virgin Australia and Link Airways announce codeshare deal for regional areas 14

2.8. New customer offerings from airlines 15

2.9. Airservices Australia is proposing to increase charges for airlines 15

3. Industry activity and reliability of performance 17

3.1. Passenger numbers and seat capacity levels have stabilised 17

3.2. Route recovery reflects shift from corporate to leisure travel 18

3.3. Rates of cancellations and delays continue to exceed long-term industry averages 20

4. Competition and connectivity 23

4.1. Bonza expands Australia's domestic route network 23

4.2. Australia has 4 airline groups competing on a domestic route for the first time 24

4.3. Despite some new competition, the market remains highly concentrated 24

5. Airfares 26

5.1. Airfares are lower than they were in late 2022 26

5.2. Jet fuel prices have fallen 28

Figures

Figure 1. Australian domestic air services - January 2019 to December 2023 17

Figure 2. Passengers and seat capacity as a proportion of 2019 levels - January 2021 to December 2023 18

Figure 3. Passengers on routes connecting larger cities - December 2019 compared to December 2023 19

Figure 4. Busiest routes by monthly passengers - December 2023 19

Figure 5. Airline cancellation rates - January 2022 to December 2023 20

Figure 6. Airline on-time performance rates (arrivals) - January 2022 to December 2023 21

Figure 7. Number of domestic routes operated by airlines - January 2021 to December 2023 23

Figure 8. Share of passengers on routes serviced by 1, 2, 3 and 4 airline groups - January 2021 to December 2023 24

Figure 9. Airline passenger market shares across all domestic routes - January 2021 to December 2023 25

Figure 10. Index of average fare revenue per passenger - January 2019 to December 2023 26

Figure 11. Real price index of the best discount economy airfares - January 2019 to January 2024 27

Figure 12. Real jet fuel and Brent crude oil prices - January 2019 to December 2023 28