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Title page

Contents

Executive Summary 4

Introduction 6

Current Fiscal Plan 7

Plans to Achieve a Balanced Budget 16

Conclusion 25

References 26

About the Authors 30

Acknowledgments 30

Publishing Information 31

About the Fraser Institute 32

Editorial Advisory Board 33

Tables

Table 1. Accumulated federal gross debt, 2024/25-2026/27 22

Figures

Figure 1. Nominal federal program spending, 2014/15-2026/27 7

Figure 2. Annual federal per-person program spending ($2023), inflation-adjusted, 2014/15-2026/27 8

Figure 3A. Annual growth in nominal federal program spending and population; and annual inflation, 2015/16-2019/20 9

Figure 3B. Planned growth in nominal federal program spending and expected increase in population; and annual inflation, 2023/24-2026/27 10

Figure 4A. Average annual growth rate in nominal federal program spending, revenue, and economic indicators, 2015/16-2019/20 11

Figure 4B. Average expected annual growth in nominal federal program spending, revenue, and economic indicators, 2023/24-2026/27 12

Figure 5. Annual federal budgetary balance, nominal, 2014/15-2026/27 13

Figure 6. Federal gross debt, nominal, 2014/15-2026/27 14

Figure 7. Planned federal program spending, nominal, and program spending adjusted to achieve a balanced budget by 2026/27 17

Figure 8. Planned federal per-person program spending ($2023) and per-person program spending adjusted to achieve a balanced budget by 2026/27, inflation-adjusted 18

Figure 9. Planned budgetary balances versus adjusted budgetary balances with slower growth in program spending, nominal, 2024/25-2026/27 18

Figure 10. Planned federal program spending, nominal, and program spending adjusted to achieve a balanced budget by 2025/26 20

Figure 11. Planned federal per-person program spending ($2023) and as adjusted to achieve a balanced budget by 2025/26, inflation-adjusted 20

Figure 12. Planned budgetary balances versus adjusted budgetary balances with spending reductions in 2025/26, nominal, 2024/25-2026/27 21