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Title page
Contents
Abstract 1
1. Introduction 6
2. A quarter century of expansion and oscillating priorities 9
3. Reaching higher or younger: what do countries borrow for as they approach universal primary enrollment? 14
4. Better at expanding access for younger children than improving learning for older ones 17
5. A closer look at specific investments in early childhood education and learning outcomes projects 22
6. What is in a project may depend on who has prepared it 24
7. Conclusion 26
References 28
Appendix 1: Methodological note 29
Appendix 2: Cross-lagged panel analysis 33
Appendix 3: Full regression results (section 4) 34
TABLE 1. Expanding access to primary schooling is associated with a decline in borrowing for primary education and an increase in borrowing for ECE and secondary education 15
TABLE 2. Identity of the World Bank Task-Team Leader can explain the composition of education projects as well or better than the country the projects are located in 25
FIGURE 1. World Bank's education financing expanded significantly over the past two and a half decades 9
FIGURE 2. The share of financing for primary education has declined while the shares of other sub-sectors have fluctuated 10
FIGURE 3. Expanding access has been the dominant objective of World Bank's education financing between 1998 and 2022 11
FIGURE 4. The share of projects targeting "quality" or "learning" as opposed to "access" shows no clear trend over the medium term 12
FIGURE 5. Explicit focus on learning outcomes often implies more project activities involving assessments, teachers and curriculum 13
FIGURE 6. Interventions targeted at underrepresented groups and women increased dramatically while activities enhancing wellbeing in school stagnated 14
FIGURE 7. Projects targeting outcomes generally receive lower performance scores than projects targeting outputs 18
FIGURE 8. Projects with an explicit focus on learning outcomes are most likely to be rated as unsuccessful 19
FIGURE 9. ECE projects are the only category with a significantly higher probability of success than primary education projects 21
FIGURE 10. Teachers and inclusion dominate the list of most common activities financed through ECE projects 23
FIGURE 11. Assessments and curriculum reform are prominent among activities financed through projects targeting learning outcomes 24
TABLE A1. Choice of project subsector as a function previous education project cycles in the same country 33
TABLE A2. Project performance by project objectives (marginal effects based on ordered probit regressions using 4-scale outcome rating) 34
TABLE A3. Project performance by project objectives (marginal effects based on binary probit regressions using binary outcome rating) 35
TABLE A4. Project performance by subsector (marginal effects based on binary probit regressions using binary outcome rating) 36
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