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Title page

Contents

Executive Summary 6

Section 1. Introduction & Methodology 10

Section 2. Historic and Current Global Utility Performance 14

Section 3. New Challenges and Opportunities for Utility Performance 23

Section 4. Empowering Utilities for the Energy Transition and Universal Access 37

Bibliography 48

Tables

Table 1. Demand, supply, transmission intensity, and cost structure for the hypothetical utility without and with the energy transition 26

Table 2. Impact of interest rate, asset impairment, and demand shocks on cost recovery for the hypothetical utility, without and with the energy transition 28

Figures

Figure 1. Sustainable utilities for the energy transition and universal access to electricity 9

Figure 2. Number of utilities in the UPBEAT database by country income and ownership (left), and geographic distribution (right) 12

Figure 3. Number of utilities according to the share of variable renewables in their country's generation mix (left), and change in their country's electricity... 13

Figure 4. Share of utilities by country income that are fully recovering both their operating and debt service costs (green bar), their operating costs only... 15

Figure 5. Utility cost recovery over time by income group (left) and ownership (right) 16

Figure 6. Share of utilities by cost of supply and country income 17

Figure 7. Median distribution losses (left) and transmission losses (right) 18

Figure 8. Median age (in days) of utility receivables (left) and payables (right) over time 18

Figure 9. Utilities that do not recover costs are more likely to receive subsidies 19

Figure 10. Utility indebtedness is relatively low across the board, with little difference by country income or utility ownership 20

Figure 11. Liability composition for the median utility (left), and the impact of including non-debt liabilities in measures of utility indebtedness (right) 21

Figure 12. Share of utilities by effective interest rate (left) and spread of the effective interest rate against the sovereign rate (right) 22

Figure 13. Utility cost recovery by proportion of liquid fuels in the national generation mix 29

Figure 14. Impact of a fossil fuel price shock on utility cost recovery, with and without the energy transition 31

Figure 15. Share of utilities by electricity demand growth 32

Figure 16. Number of utilities that could achieve cost recovery by addressing key performance challenges 43

Figure 17. Share of utilities reporting basic effciency and reliability performance metrics 44

Boxes

BOX 1. Simulating higher capital intensity for a hypothetical utility 25

BOX 2. Higher utility capital intensity and vulnerability to shocks 27

BOX 3. HFO dependence and operating expense volatility in Western Africa 29

BOX 4. The impact of a fossil fuel price shock on utility performance with and without the transition 30

BOX 5. DERs and utility performance challenges in Jordan 33

BOX 6. Enhanced utility service offerings for DERs and peer-to-peer electricity trading in India 35

BOX 7. Utility performance and the push toward universal access in Kenya 36

BOX 8. OFGEM RIIO (Revenue = Incentives + Innovation + Outputs) in Great Britain 42

BOX 9. How much concessional capital? And at what price? 46

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