Title page

Contents

March quarter 2024 - Petrol snapshot 5

Key messages 6

1. Developments in the petroleum industry 13

1.1. Petrol sales volumes decreased in the quarter 13

1.2. Impacts of retail fuel prices on inflation 14

1.3. Fuel excise indexed in line with the Consumer Price Index 14

1.4. The Australian Government consulted further on a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard 15

1.5. The RACV launched alerts on its fuel app to assist motorists find lower fuel prices 15

1.6. 7-Eleven made changes to the Fuel Price Lock feature on its app 16

1.7. The National Measurement Institute reported on fuel dispenser compliance and fuel quality audits in 2022-23 16

1.8. The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal of New South Wales announced a new wholesale ethanol price 17

1.9. Electric vehicle and charging network developments 18

2. ACCC activities 21

2.1. The ACCC monitors prices, costs and profits in the petroleum industry 21

2.2. The ACCC completed its assessment of Viva Energy's acquisition of OTR retail sites 21

2.3. The ACCC continued its monitoring, stakeholder liaison and communication activity 22

3. Retail petrol price movements in the 5 largest cities 23

3.1. Retail petrol prices were lower on average in the quarter 23

3.2. Price cycles in each of the 5 largest cities are different and vary over time 24

3.3. The price differentials between premium unleaded petrol grades and regular unleaded petrol increased marginally 26

4. Components of petrol prices across the 5 largest cities 29

4.1. Mogas 95 was the largest component of average retail petrol prices 29

4.2. Mogas 95 prices increased 30

4.3. A higher quarterly average AUD-USD exchange rate put downward pressure on average retail prices 31

4.4. Quarterly average gross indicative retail differences decreased 32

4.5. Longer term average gross indicative retail differences trended toward pre-pandemic levels 35

4.6. Retail petrol prices reduced in the quarter reflecting lower gross indicative retail differences 36

5. Retail petrol price movements in the smaller capital cities and across regional locations 38

5.1. Average retail petrol prices increased in Canberra and decreased in Hobart and Darwin 38

5.2. Average regional retail petrol prices were marginally higher than prices across the 5 largest cities 41

5.3. Quarterly average regional retail petrol prices in east coast states were lower than their respective capital city 42

6. Crude oil and refined petrol price movements 44

6.1. Crude oil and refined petrol prices trended upward during the quarter 44

6.2. Refiner margins increased 45

6.3. Various international factors have influenced crude oil prices 46

7. Retail diesel price movements in the capital cities 49

7.1. Quarterly average retail diesel prices decreased in all capital cities 49

7.2. Gasoil 10 ppm was the largest component of average retail diesel prices 50

7.3. Retail diesel prices reflected trends in Gasoil 10 ppm price movements 51

7.4. Diesel and petrol retail prices are driven by different international benchmark prices 52

Appendix A: Petrol price data for monitored locations 54

Appendix B: Components of automotive liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices 60

Table 3.1. Quarterly average retail petrol prices in each of the 5 largest cities: December quarter 2023 and March quarter 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 23

Table 3.2. Number of price cycles per quarter in each of the 5 largest cities: June quarter 2023 to March quarter 2024 26

Table 4.1. Quarterly average retail petrol prices, terminal gate prices and gross indicative retail differences in each of the 5 largest cities: June quarter 2023 to... 33

Table 5.1. Quarterly average retail petrol prices in Canberra, Hobart and Darwin and across the 5 largest cities: December quarter 2023 and March quarter 2024... 38

Charts

Chart 1.1. Quarterly sales volumes of regular unleaded petrol in Australia: March quarter 2019 to March quarter 2024 - million litres 13

Chart 1.2. Quarterly new internal combustion engine vehicle sales and new electric vehicle sales: March quarter 2022 to March quarter 2024 18

Chart 1.3. Quarterly new battery electric vehicle sales and new plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales: March quarter 2022 to March quarter 2024 19

Chart 3.1. Seven-day rolling average retail petrol prices across the 5 largest cities in nominal terms: 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 24

Chart 3.2. Daily average retail petrol prices in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane: 1 January 2024 to 31 March 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 25

Chart 3.3. Daily average retail petrol prices in Adelaide and Perth: 1 January 2024 to 31 March 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 25

Chart 3.4. Monthly average retail prices of regular unleaded petrol, premium unleaded petrol 95 and 98 and E10 across the 5 largest cities in nominal terms:... 27

Chart 4.1. Components of average retail petrol prices across the 5 largest cities in the March quarter 2024 - in percentage and cents per litre (cpl) terms 29

Chart 4.2. Monthly average retail petrol prices across the 5 largest cities and Mogas 95 prices in nominal terms: April 2022 to March 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 30

Chart 4.3. Daily AUD-USD exchange rates in nominal terms: 1 April 2022 to 28 March 2024 - US cents 31

Chart 4.4. Quarterly average gross indicative retail differences across the 5 largest cities in nominal terms: June quarter 2021 to March quarter 2024 - cents per... 34

Chart 4.5. Twelve-month average gross indicative retail differences across the 5 largest cities in real terms: June 2017 to March 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 35

Chart 4.6. Changes in the components of average retail petrol prices across the 5 largest cities: December quarter 2023 to March quarter 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 37

Chart 5.1. Monthly average retail petrol prices in Canberra, Hobart, Darwin and across the 5 largest cities in nominal terms: April 2022 to March 2024 - cents per... 39

Chart 5.2. Daily average retail regular unleaded petrol prices by major brand in Canberra: 1 October 2023 to 31 March 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 40

Chart 5.3. Monthly average retail petrol prices across regional locations in aggregate and across the 5 largest cities in nominal terms: April 2022 to March 2024... 41

Chart 6.1. Weekly average Brent crude oil and Mogas 95 prices in nominal terms: April 2022 to March 2024 - USD per barrel 44

Chart 7.1. Components of average retail diesel prices across the 5 largest cities in the March quarter 2024 - in percentage and cents per litre (cpl) terms 50

Chart 7.2. Seven-day rolling average retail diesel prices across the 5 largest cities and Gasoil 10 ppm prices in nominal terms: 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2024 - cents... 51

Chart 7.3. Monthly average Gasoil 10 ppm and Mogas 95 prices in nominal terms: April 2022 to March 2024 - cents per litre (cpl) 52

Table A.1. Quarterly average retail petrol prices in the December quarter 2023 and the March quarter 2024, and differentials in the March quarter 2024 and the year... 54

Appendix Charts

Chart B.1. Components of average retail liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices across the 5 largest cities in the March quarter 2024 - in percentage and cents per litre... 60