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국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색

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Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Institutional background 8

3. Data 10

3.1. Social security records (SIAB 1975-2017) 10

3.2. Database with policy variables 11

3.3. Complementary datasets 12

4. Estimation strategy 12

5. Results 14

5.1. Effects on labor market performance 14

5.2. Potential mechanisms 17

5.3. Heterogeneities 19

6. Conclusions 21

References 32

Appendix A. Additional figures and tables 43

Appendix B. Parallel extensions of compulsory education and identifying variation 64

Appendix C. Measurement error from regional mobility 68

Appendix D. Detailed description of auxiliary datasets 73

Appendix E. Reconciliation with the cross-sectional perspective of Pischke (2007) 81

Appendix F. Validity and robustness tests 84

Table 1. Lifetime effects on labor market outcomes (ages 20-64) 28

Table 2. Lifetime effects in Pension Insurance records (from age 14) 29

Table 3. Effects on highest educational attainment 29

Table 4. Effects on skill requirement for a given job 30

Table 5. Gender-specific effects on labor market outcomes 31

Figure 1. Exposure to short school years for children enrolled between 1950 and 1970 24

Figure 2. Effects of the short school years over the live cycle 25

Figure 3. Relative effects on lifetime outcomes (ages 20-64) depending on treatment timing 26

Figure 4. Effects on occupational area 27

Table A.1. Starting dates of the school year by state 53

Table A.2. Sample means 54

Table A.3. Effects on labor market outcomes during prime-ages (31-54) 55

Table A.4. Effects depending on the timing of the exposure to the short school years 56

Table A.5. Effects on educational attainment and other outcomes 57

Table A.6. Comparison with the Micro Census: Effects on educational attainment 58

Table A.7. Effects on performance in cognitive tests 58

Table A.8. Effects on socioemotional skills 59

Table A.9. Gender-specific effects on labor market outcomes: alternative datasets 59

Table A.10. Gender-specific effects on highest educational attainment 60

Table A.11. Gender-specific effects on educational attainment from the Micro Census 60

Table A.12. Gender-specific effects on cognitive skills and personality traits 61

Table A.13. Gender-specific effects on skill requirement for a given job 62

Table A.14. Effects on gender gaps 62

Table A.15. Effects on earnings dispersion 63

Table C.1. Sample means - NEPS 70

Table C.2. The effect of exposure to short school years on interstate immobility 71

Table C.3. Quantifying the attenuation bias 72

Table D.1. Number of individuals in the estimation sample by birth year and data wave 74

Table D.2. Sample means - Pension Insurance records 75

Table D.3. Sample means - Micro Census 77

Table D.4. Sample means - SOEP 80

Table E.1. Effects on labor market outcomes from pooled cross-sectional regressions 83

Table F.1. Lifetime effects (ages 20-64) - binary treatment definition 91

Table F.2. Diagnostics suggested in de Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille (2020) 92

Table F.3. Sensitivity analysis 93

Table F.4. Comparison with the Micro Census: Effects on labor market outcomes 94

Table F.5. Robustness to refined treatment assignment in the German Micro Census 95

Table F.6. Income effects after adding controls for demographic characteristics 96

Table F.7. Alternative inference results 97

Figure A.1. Compulsory instruction time in general education across OECD countries 43

Figure A.2. Exposure to the short school years 1966/67 during compulsory schooling 44

Figure A.3. Distribution of students across secondary school tracks 45

Figure A.4. Grade progression for enrollment cohort 1953 45

Figure A.5. Effects of the short school years over the live cycle 46

Figure A.6. Effects on alternative labor market outcomes over the life cycle 47

Figure A.7. Relative effects on depending on the timing of the exposure 48

Figure A.8. Life-cycle effects on labor market outcomes by gender 49

Figure A.9. Gender-specific effects on occupational area 50

Figure A.10. Gender gap in prime-age earnings by birth year 51

Figure A.11. Earnings effects across the income distribution 52

Figure B.1. Time trends in adult earnings by birthdate and treatment status 67

Figure F.1. Event time studies for the effect on lifetime outcomes (ages 20-64) 88

Figure F.2. Event time studies for the effect on prime-age outcomes (ages 31-54) 89

Figure F.3. Sensitivity analysis: excluding single states 90