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Title page
Contents
Abstract 3
1. Introduction 4
2. Institutional background 8
3. Data 10
3.1. Social security records (SIAB 1975-2017) 10
3.2. Database with policy variables 11
3.3. Complementary datasets 12
4. Estimation strategy 12
5. Results 14
5.1. Effects on labor market performance 14
5.2. Potential mechanisms 17
5.3. Heterogeneities 19
6. Conclusions 21
References 32
Appendix A. Additional figures and tables 43
Appendix B. Parallel extensions of compulsory education and identifying variation 64
Appendix C. Measurement error from regional mobility 68
Appendix D. Detailed description of auxiliary datasets 73
Appendix E. Reconciliation with the cross-sectional perspective of Pischke (2007) 81
Appendix F. Validity and robustness tests 84
Table 1. Lifetime effects on labor market outcomes (ages 20-64) 28
Table 2. Lifetime effects in Pension Insurance records (from age 14) 29
Table 3. Effects on highest educational attainment 29
Table 4. Effects on skill requirement for a given job 30
Table 5. Gender-specific effects on labor market outcomes 31
Figure 1. Exposure to short school years for children enrolled between 1950 and 1970 24
Figure 2. Effects of the short school years over the live cycle 25
Figure 3. Relative effects on lifetime outcomes (ages 20-64) depending on treatment timing 26
Figure 4. Effects on occupational area 27
Table A.1. Starting dates of the school year by state 53
Table A.2. Sample means 54
Table A.3. Effects on labor market outcomes during prime-ages (31-54) 55
Table A.4. Effects depending on the timing of the exposure to the short school years 56
Table A.5. Effects on educational attainment and other outcomes 57
Table A.6. Comparison with the Micro Census: Effects on educational attainment 58
Table A.7. Effects on performance in cognitive tests 58
Table A.8. Effects on socioemotional skills 59
Table A.9. Gender-specific effects on labor market outcomes: alternative datasets 59
Table A.10. Gender-specific effects on highest educational attainment 60
Table A.11. Gender-specific effects on educational attainment from the Micro Census 60
Table A.12. Gender-specific effects on cognitive skills and personality traits 61
Table A.13. Gender-specific effects on skill requirement for a given job 62
Table A.14. Effects on gender gaps 62
Table A.15. Effects on earnings dispersion 63
Table C.1. Sample means - NEPS 70
Table C.2. The effect of exposure to short school years on interstate immobility 71
Table C.3. Quantifying the attenuation bias 72
Table D.1. Number of individuals in the estimation sample by birth year and data wave 74
Table D.2. Sample means - Pension Insurance records 75
Table D.3. Sample means - Micro Census 77
Table D.4. Sample means - SOEP 80
Table E.1. Effects on labor market outcomes from pooled cross-sectional regressions 83
Table F.1. Lifetime effects (ages 20-64) - binary treatment definition 91
Table F.2. Diagnostics suggested in de Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille (2020) 92
Table F.3. Sensitivity analysis 93
Table F.4. Comparison with the Micro Census: Effects on labor market outcomes 94
Table F.5. Robustness to refined treatment assignment in the German Micro Census 95
Table F.6. Income effects after adding controls for demographic characteristics 96
Table F.7. Alternative inference results 97
Figure A.1. Compulsory instruction time in general education across OECD countries 43
Figure A.2. Exposure to the short school years 1966/67 during compulsory schooling 44
Figure A.3. Distribution of students across secondary school tracks 45
Figure A.4. Grade progression for enrollment cohort 1953 45
Figure A.5. Effects of the short school years over the live cycle 46
Figure A.6. Effects on alternative labor market outcomes over the life cycle 47
Figure A.7. Relative effects on depending on the timing of the exposure 48
Figure A.8. Life-cycle effects on labor market outcomes by gender 49
Figure A.9. Gender-specific effects on occupational area 50
Figure A.10. Gender gap in prime-age earnings by birth year 51
Figure A.11. Earnings effects across the income distribution 52
Figure B.1. Time trends in adult earnings by birthdate and treatment status 67
Figure F.1. Event time studies for the effect on lifetime outcomes (ages 20-64) 88
Figure F.2. Event time studies for the effect on prime-age outcomes (ages 31-54) 89
Figure F.3. Sensitivity analysis: excluding single states 90
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