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정보검색

소장정보 검색

국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색
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결과 내 검색 동의어 포함

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Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Survey design and information treatments 9

2.1. The ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey 10

2.2. Measuring inflation expectations and uncertainty 11

2.3. The information treatment 13

2.4. Measuring the effects on decisions 15

3. The effects of expected inflation and inflation uncertainty on spending decisions 18

3.1. Durable goods purchases 19

3.2. Spending on non-durable goods and services 21

3.3. Recap 21

4. The effects of expected inflation and inflation uncertainty on financial portfolios 22

4.1. Hypothetical portfolio allocation of a financial windfall 22

4.2. Actual portfolio allocation 23

4.3. Recap 24

5. The effects of expected inflation and inflation uncertainty on labor supply 24

5.1. Expected job search and future income 25

5.2. Job market outcomes 26

5.3. Recap 27

6. The effects of expected inflation and inflation uncertainty on other outcomes 27

7. Conclusion 29

References 30

Appendix 48

Tables

Table 1. Descriptive statistics for pre-treatment inflation expectations 34

Table 2. Responses to a hypothetical increase/decrease in inflation uncertainty 35

Table 3. Purchases of durable goods, extensive margin 36

Table 4. Subsample analysis for purchases of a durable good one month after the treatment 37

Table 5. Purchases of non-durable goods and services 38

Table 6. Reallocation of non-durable goods and services spending 39

Table 7. Portfolio allocations across asset classes 40

Table 8. Job Search and Related Expectations 41

Table 9. Expectations about household income growth (next 12 months) 42

Table 10. Employment Status 43

Table 11. Additional margins of adjustment 44

Figures

Figure 1. Distribution of inflation expectations 45

Figure 2. Treatment effect on inflation expectations 46

Figure 3. Dynamic effect of inflation expectations and uncertainty on durable goods purchases 47

Appendix Tables

Appendix Table 1. Descriptive statistics for post-treatment (scenarios) inflation expectations for the control group 52

Appendix Table 2. Predictors of inflation expectations 53

Appendix Table 3. The effect of treatments on posterior beliefs 54

Appendix Table 4. The effects of expectations on durable goods purchases across months 55

Appendix Table 5. Portfolio allocations across asset classes 56

Appendix Table 6. Budget shares for spending on non-durables 57

Appendix Table 7. Employment status 58

Appendix Table 8. Subjective beliefs about labor market outcomes 59

Appendix Table 9. Dynamics of the first stage 60

Appendix Table 10. Sample attrition cross waves 61

Appendix Table 11. Predictors of treatment status 62

Appendix Table 12. Subsample results for durable goods, one month after the treatment 63

Appendix Table 13. Subsample results for spending on non-durable goods&services, one month after the treatment 65

Appendix Table 14. Subsample results for employment status, four months after the treatment 66

Appendix Table 15. Subsample results for hypothetical portfolio allocations 68

Appendix Table 16. Subsample results for actual portfolio allocations 70

Appendix Figures

Appendix Figure 1. Expectations for inflation and other variables 49

Appendix Figure 2. The effects of expectations on durable goods purchases across months, OLS 50

Appendix Figure 3. Time series of actual inflation and inflation expectations in the CES 51

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