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Title page

Contents

Acknowledgement 3

Executive summary 6

1. Introduction and analytical framework 7

2. An analysis of farms' resilience capacities to drought in Australia 10

2.1. The data 11

2.2. Static analysis: Preparedness of Australian farms 11

2.3. Dynamic analysis of resilience of Australian farms after drought: Absorption, adaptation, and transformation 15

2.4. Crop sector level resilience in Australia after the 2003 drought 22

2.5. A composite indicator of all resilience capacities for Australian crop farms 27

3. An analysis of farms' resilience capacities after a bluetongue outbreak in France 31

3.1. The data and the method 32

3.2. Results and insights 33

4. An analysis of farms' resilience capacities after an ASF outbreak in Estonia 35

4.1. Description of the animal and the data 35

4.2. Static effects: Preparedness 35

4.3. Dynamic analysis: Shock impact by ASF and characteristics of resilient pig farms 36

4.4. Pig sector level resilience in Estonia after ASF outbreak 37

4.5. Composite indicators for Estonian pig farms 40

5. Concluding remarks and policy implications 44

5.1. A methodological framework to measure farming resilience 44

5.2. Insights on crop farms resilience after the 2003 drought in Australia 46

5.3. Insights on pig farms resilience after the 2015 African Swine Fever outbreak in Estonia 48

References 50

Annex A. Detailed statistical results 52

Annex B. Methodology for shock identification: Australian drought (Section 2) 59

Annex C. Methodology for shock identification: Bluetongue outbreak in France (Section 3) 60

Annex D. Methodology for dynamic analysis: ASF in Estonia (Section 4) 62

Tables

Table 1.1. The three examples in this report at a glance 10

Table 2.1. Selection of characteristics to indicate resilience preparedness of Australian crop farms 12

Table 2.2. Australian crop farms - trends on preparedness indicators 2000-2007 15

Table 2.3. Australian crop farms - performance development by phase: Changes in productivity, income and profit 17

Table 2.4. Australian crop farms - drivers for resilience capacities: Productivity 19

Table 2.5. Australian crop farms - drivers for resilience capacities: Income 20

Table 2.6. Australian crop farms - drivers for resilience capacities: Profit 21

Table 2.7. Australian crop farms - distributional moments of top and worst performers on productivity, income and profit 23

Table 2.8. Australian crop farms: Evolution of sector level resilience 25

Table 2.9. Australian crop farms: Observed and implied dynamics of class shares before and after the drought 27

Table 2.10. Australian crop farms: Combined resilience indices 28

Table 2.11. Corelation between the four resilience capacities 28

Table 4.1. Estonian pig farms - characteristics of most resilient farms by capacity 37

Table 4.2. Estonian pig farms: Distributional moments of top and worst performers on productivity and income 38

Table 4.3. Estonian pig farms: Evolution of sector level resilience 40

Table 4.4. Estonian pig farms: Combined resilience indices 41

Table 4.5. Correlation between the four resilience capacities 42

Table 5.1. Methods for Shock Impact Identification: Evaluation 45

Figures

Figure 1.1. Performance and resilience capacities 8

Figure 1.2. Analytical framework for resilience at farm level 9

Figure 2.1. Australian crop farms: Resilience preparedness characteristics 13

Figure 2.2. Australian crop farms: productivity, income and profits 16

Figure 2.3. Switching behaviour across productivity farm classes 26

Figure 2.4. Australian farms: Distribution of combined resilience index 29

Figure 2.5. Australian crop farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms (productivity) 30

Figure 2.6. Australian crop farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms (income) 30

Figure 2.7. Australian crop farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms (profit) 31

Figure 3.1. Productivity (left panel) and Income (right panel) in affected region (blue line) and as mean of the donor pool (red line) 33

Figure 3.2. French dairy farms: Treatment effect for outcome variable productivity (left panel) and income (right panel) 34

Figure 4.1. Estonia pig farms - distribution of combined resilience index 41

Figure 4.2. Estonian pig farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms (productivity) 43

Figure 4.3. Estonian pig farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms (income) 43

Annex Tables

Table A.1. Australian crop farms: Difference-in-difference regressions for drought 2003 52

Table A.2. Australian crop farms - Summary DID regressions for significant droughts 53

Table A.3. Australian crop farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms, productivity 54

Table A.4. Australian crop farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms, income 55

Table A.5. Australian crop farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms, profit 56

Table A.6. Estonian pig farms: Fixed effects regression productivity and income changes in 2014-16 57

Table A.7. Estonian pig farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms, productivity 58

Table A.8. Estonian pig farms: Characteristics of resilient sample farms, income 58

Table C.1. French dairy farms: Means of selected variables for the donor pool, the affected region and the synthetic control region in the prediction period... 61

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